Finn Kydland on his work and Ireland

Amol Agrawal's avatarMostly Economics

I was going through this old interview of Finn Kydland, 2004 Laureate  alongwith Ed Prescott.

He nicely explains his work and why he got the Nobel Prize:

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Climate confusion: worst carbon emissions scenario ‘misleading’

oldbrew's avatarTallbloke's Talkshop


Maybe the climate alarmist leaders have finally grown tired of being panned for blatant exaggeration and dishonest fearmongering, based entirely on failing climate models. But of course much of the desired psychological damage has already been done.

Scientists should stop using the very worst predictions for carbon emissions, a study suggests – reporting by the BBC.

Referred to as “business as usual”, the scenario assumes a 500% increase in the use of coal, which is now considered unlikely.

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Some of the latest climate models provide unrealistically high projections of future warming

oldbrew's avatarTallbloke's Talkshop

Image credit: livescience.com
They might do well to remember that historic climate data always show carbon dioxide rises *following* temperature rises, often with quite a long time lag, never leading them, which raises awkward questions for ‘heat-trapping’ theories and climate models based on them.
– – –
A new study from University of Michigan climate researchers concludes that some of the latest-generation climate models may be overly sensitive to carbon dioxide increases and therefore project future warming that is unrealistically high, says Phys.org.

In a letter scheduled for publication April 30 in the journal Nature Climate Change, the researchers say that projections from one of the leading models, known as CESM2, are not supported by geological evidence from a previous warming period roughly 50 million years ago.

The researchers used the CESM2 model to simulate temperatures during the Early Eocene, a time when rainforests thrived in the tropics of…

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More money is on tap for minimising waste – but going online to learn about the scheme could be a time-waster

Bob Edlin's avatarPoint of Order

The government has replenished another trough and is calling the hogs to get their snouts into an $8 million swill.

No, this one is not under the control of Shane Jones, the Minister of Munificence whose announcements regularly trigger the Point of Order Trough Monitor.

The announcement this time was made by Associate Environment Minister Eugenie Sage, who emulated Jones by emphasising the employment prospects.  

Her press statement begins:

Creating jobs in the vital waste reduction sector is the focus of the latest application round for the Waste Minimisation Fund, which opens today.

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How will we pay for all this?

julianhjessop's avatarPlain-speaking Economics

The coronavirus pandemic is of course primarily a social crisis, but the fiscal costs are also important. A sharp and sustained deterioration in the public finances could have major implications for future government spending and taxation. Fortunately, there are also some good reasons to be sanguine.

Let’s begin with the bad news. A slump in economic activity is inevitable and even desirable; we actually want most people to stop doing what they would normally be doing, in order to save lives. However, this will also lead to a surge in government borrowing, reflecting both the direct costs of the fiscal measures being taken to protect businesses, jobs and incomes, and the knock-on effects of a steep fall in GDP on welfare spending and tax revenues.

The headline figures are scary. Given all the uncertainties, it makes sense to talk in terms of ‘plausible scenarios’ rather than ‘forecasts’, and any hard…

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Gallery

May 1, 1707: The Acts of Union goes into effect.

liamfoley63's avatarEuropean Royal History

The Acts of Union were two Acts of Parliament: the Union with Scotland Act 1706 passed by the Parliament of England, and the Union with England Act passed in 1707 by the Parliament of Scotland. They put into effect the terms of the Treaty of Union that had been agreed on July 22, 1706, following negotiation between commissioners representing the parliaments of the two countries. By the two Acts, the Kingdom of England and the Kingdom of Scotland—which at the time were separate states with separate legislatures, but with the same monarch—were, in the words of the Treaty, “United into One Kingdom by the Name of Great Britain”.

D607D4EC-D674-4C5E-8528-6DE62763C5CD
Elizabeth I, Queen of England and Ireland

Prior to 1603, England and Scotland were separate kingdoms; as Elizabeth I never married, after 1567, her heir became the Stuart king of Scotland, James VI, who was brought up as a Protestant. James was…

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Sullivan: According to his own standards, Biden’s guilty

whyevolutionistrue's avatarWhy Evolution Is True

Many of you have read about Tara Reade’s claim that Joe Biden assaulted her 27 years ago. Although her story has varied over time, her most serious claims do allege true sexual assault—digital penetration, which the Department of Justice considers rape. As far as I know about the evidence, it’s not sufficient to convict Biden in a court of law—evidence “beyond a reasonable doubt.” But Andrew Sullivan’s point in the first part of his latest column (the other two parts are about the pandemic death toll and a new documentary about Phylis Schlafly) is that according to Biden’s own standards as promulgated in Obama’s Title IX regulations, he’s guilty as hell, or would be found so in a college “trial.”

Click on the screenshot to read the article:

This is a little bit misleading, as Sullivan sees “Biden’s own standards”, as noted above, as those he promulgated in the…

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Myth of the Rational Voter

NASA space lasers show sea levels have risen by 14mm in 17 years – but what’s the latest trend?

oldbrew's avatarTallbloke's Talkshop

Kangerlussuaq Fjord, Greenland [image credit: notsogreen.com]
Less than a year ago NASA was reporting from Greenland: Jakobshavn Glacier Grows for Third Straight Year, and ‘The glacier grew 22 to 33 yards (20 to 30 meters) each year between 2016 and 2019.’ So this new report may be, to some degree at least, already obsolete since it says: ‘The largest thinning rates were between 4 and 6 m a−1 in Jakobshavn and Kangerlugssuaq glaciers’.
– – –
Sea levels have risen by 14mm since 2003 due to ice melting in Antarctica and Greenland, scientists have said.

Nasa launched a satellite to measure global heights in 2018 and spotted the rise after bouncing laser pulses against sheets of ice, says the London Evening Standard.

The study found that Greenland lost an average of 200 billion tonnes of ice per year, and Antarctica lost an average of 118 billion tonnes.

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Towards the Restoration of the Monarchy, 1-8 May 1660

History of Parliament's avatarThe History of Parliament

Today’s blog from Dr Andrew Barclay, senior research fellow for our Commons 1640-1660 project, is the second in a three-part series about the parliament that would restore the monarchy in 1660 (part one available here). In this piece he explores the process that led to the accession of Charles II on 8 May 1660…

When the new Parliament met on 25 April 1660 few doubted that it would restore the monarchy. The real question was whether it would try to impose any conditions on Charles II. Lots of people, including quite a few MPs, still hoped that some variation on the deal discussed with Charles I at Newport on the Isle of Wight in 1648 might be possible. The late king had been willing to make concessions on church government and control of the militia. That his more flexible son might agree something similar seemed…

View original post 871 more words

The Green Delusions Of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Green Deals are the best way to turbo-charge economic recovery from Covid-19-AEP

role of batteries is limited to short term grid balancing, usually for minutes or at most an hour or so.

CPS Guidance undermining consent withdrawn

The reason fathers and brothers often hate your boyfriend is they know men are dangerous. They get a bad vibe off your latest boyfriend.

All feminists used to know that men are dangerous because most crimes and nearly all sex offences are committed by men.

Maya Forstater's avatarsingle sex spaces

The Crown Prosecution Service has withdrawn an anti-bullying guidance pack for schools developed with Stonewall and Gendered Intelligence, after a 14-year-old girl brought a legal action.

The pack, which has been withdrawn for review, encouraged schools to tell girls to ignore their discomfort and not object to males entering single sex spaces such as toilets and changing rooms.

One of its teaching exercises features a video scenario where an adult male presenting in a feminine style enters the women’s toilets. Two young women at the sinks whisper their discomfort: “What’s he doing in here? This is the Ladies”. The next time the person uses the Gents’ where two middle-aged men shout abuse and bang on the door.

The classdiscussion guidance says

“Ask the students what happened in the clip. Thinking about how the girl in the clip was treated, can the class understand why she might have felt…

View original post 382 more words

The Life of Edward II, King of England and Lord of Ireland. Part VI.

liamfoley63's avatarEuropean Royal History

Fall from power (1326–1327)

Isabella, with Edward’s envoys, carried out negotiations with the French in late March. The negotiations proved difficult, and they arrived at a settlement only after Isabella personally intervened with her brother, King Charles IV of France. The terms favoured the French Crown: in particular, Edward would give homage in person to Charles for Gascony. Concerned about the consequences of war breaking out once again, Edward agreed to the treaty but decided to give Gascony to his son, Edward, and sent the prince to give homage in Paris.

Edward now expected Isabella and their son to return to England, but instead she remained in France and showed no intention of making her way back. Until 1322, Edward and Isabella’s marriage appears to have been successful, but by the time Isabella left for France in 1325, it had deteriorated. Isabella appears to have disliked Hugh Despenser the Younger…

View original post 756 more words

The lack of any serious transparency

Spot on.

Michael Reddell's avatarcroaking cassandra

People can agree or disagree with the government and its official agencies on the various numerous specifics of the handling of the coronavirus, up to and including yesterday’s decisions.  But whether you, or I, agree with individual choices that have been made –  and I’m sceptical of more than a few of them – isn’t the point of this post, which is about the serious lack of transparency of official advice etc through this period of wrenching dislocation, in which lives were at risk, civil liberties shredded, the ability of people to earn their living badly disrupted, Parliament suspended and so on.   Perhaps most or even all those decisions were the right ones –  something that will probably be debated for the next 100 years, as aspects of the 1918 flu or much about the Great Depression still is-  but no one can argue they were normal, routine or…

View original post 2,338 more words

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