The importance of bidding for the Olympics, losing that bid, but putting on a good show

Both successful and unsuccessful bids to host the Olympics  have a similar positive impact on exports according to Andrew Rose  – no relation.

The Olympic effect on trade is from a signal that a country sends when bidding to host the games, rather than actually hosting the event.

A country that wishes to liberalise its trade may want to signal this by bidding to host a mega-event. It generates extra trade-related investment and creates a political atmosphere where back-sliding on trade liberalisation or the mega-event becomes difficult.

  • Rome was awarded the 1960 games in 1955: the same year that Italy started to move towards currency convertibility, joined the UN, and began the negotiations that lead two years later to the Treaty of Rome and the creation of the European Economic Community.
  • The Tokyo games of 1964 coincided with Japanese entry into the IMF and the OECD.
  • Barcelona was awarded the 1992 games in 1986, the same year Spain joined the European economic community.
  • The decision to award Korea the 1988 games coincided with Korea’s political liberalisation.

Many of the countries that are hosted the Olympic Games in recent years such as China have done so as part of showing to the world that they have made it and there’s no going back.

The trick  then for the  taxpayer is  for your country’s bid  to host the Olympics to come a close second without anyone knowing you really want to lose.

The trouble with treating the Olympic bid is all show to boost your image  as an investment destination and a liberalising economy is  your beard might actually win. Throwing a fight is never easy as many a boxer knows.

The great leap backward

The importation of socialism into the Third World, even in the relatively non-violent form of Congress-Party Fabian-Gandhism, unintentionally stifled growth, enriched large industrialists, and kept the people poor.  Malthusian theories hatched in the West were put into practice by India and especially China, resulting in millions of missing girls.  The capitalist-sponsored Green Revolution of dwarf hybrids was opposed by green politicians the world around, but has made places like India self-sufficient in grains. 

State power in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa has been used to tax the majority of farmers in aid of the president’s cousins and a minority of urban bureaucrats.  State power in many parts of Latin America has prevented land reform and sponsored disappearances.  State ownership of oil in Nigeria and Mexico and Iraq was used to support the party in power, benefiting the people not at all.  Arab men have been kept poor, not bettered, by using state power to deny education and driver’s licenses to Arab women. 

The seizure of governments by the clergy has corrupted religions and ruined economies.  The seizure of governments by the military has corrupted armies and ruined economies.

Deirdre McCloskey

P.T. Bauer on the role of government in economic development

…the pre­occupation with aid, investment, and development planning has served to divert attention from more important factors in devel­opment which are influenced by government policy. This same pre­occupation has also served some­what paradoxically to bring about a serious neglect of essential tasks of government.

Governments seem anxious to plan but unable to govern. The neglect extends to such familiar and essential tasks as the maintenance of law and order, the effective management of the monetary and fiscal system, and the provision of basic trans­port and educational facilities.

P.T. Bauer (1966)

What the experiments of the 20th century told me

It would have been hard to know the wisdom of Friedrich Hayek or Milton Friedman or Matt Ridley or Deirdre McCloskey in August of 1914, before the experiments in large government were well begun.

But anyone who after the 20th century still thinks that thoroughgoing socialism, nationalism, imperialism, mobilization, central planning, regulation, zoning, price controls, tax policy, labour unions, business cartels, government spending, intrusive policing, adventurism in foreign policy, faith in entangling religion and politics, or most of the other thoroughgoing 19th-century proposals for governmental action are still neat, harmless ideas for improving our lives is not paying attention.

Deirdre McCloskey

P.T. Bauer on development aid as a precondition to development in the Third World

Foreign aid is clearly not a neces­sary condition of economic devel­opment. This fact is obvious from the history of the developed coun­tries, all of which began poor and have invariably progressed with­out government-to-government aid.

It is clear also from the his­tory of many underdeveloped coun­tries — Hong Kong, Japan, Malaya — which have advanced in recent decades without foreign aid.

P.T. Bauer (1966)

No One Cares How Many Predictions Earth Day Founders Got Wrong

 “Air pollution… is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.”

Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist

“The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”

Kenneth Watt, Ecologist

“Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”

Paul Ehrlich

“By… [1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.”

Paul Ehrlich

“It is already too late to avoid mass starvation.”

Denis Hayes, chief organizer for Earth Day

“Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa.

By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions…

By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.”

Peter Gunter, professor, North Texas State University

“Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support… the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half.”

Life magazine, January 1970

via No One Cares How Many Predictions Earth Day Founders Got Wrong.

Should we simply outlaw the scourge of sweatshops and walk away in prim satisfaction?

What is to happen to the erstwhile workers–commonly uneducated, poorly trained, illegally in a land foreign to them, with little experience and marketplace sophistication–who have had their livelihoods abolished? They had been surviving–even if meanly by civilized standards–in market competition by selling their limited services of low value at meager wages.

Taking away those miserable jobs, pricing them out of what had been their best option, does not magically provide them with better alternative employment. Reducing their already poor power to compete, leaving them more handicapped than before, is a strange way to help them.

Bill Allen

Economic progress versus environmental quality

When I was in Japan, I was told that in the 1960s, cities and prefectures welcomed polluting industries because of the better paid jobs they offered.

At that time, shipping companies used like to go to Tokyo because the pollution in Tokyo Bay was so bad that it would clean all the barnacles off their ships. That made them sail faster.

Japanese incomes and wages doubled over the course of the 1960s.

In the early 1970s, the LDP stole the environmental policies of their opponents in a really big crack down on pollution because the country could now afforded them. The Japanese voter was now prepared to support stricter pollution standards and environmental controls.

In Praise of Cheap Labor | Paul Krugman (1997)

The lofty moral tone of the opponents of globalization is possible only because they have chosen not to think their position through.

While fat-cat capitalists might benefit from globalization, the biggest beneficiaries are, yes, Third World workers.

After all, global poverty is not something recently invented for the benefit of multinational corporations…

wherever the new export industries have grown, there has been measurable improvement in the lives of ordinary people.

Partly this is because a growing industry must offer a somewhat higher wage than workers could get elsewhere in order to get them to move.

More importantly, however, the growth of manufacturing–and of the penumbra of other jobs that the new export sector creates–has a ripple effect throughout the economy. The pressure on the land becomes less intense, so rural wages rise; the pool of unemployed urban dwellers always anxious for work shrinks, so factories start to compete with each other for workers, and urban wages also begin to rise.

via In Praise of Cheap Labor.

The mismeasurement of prosperity

The average quality of goods: new goods and improved versions of older goods can provide variety and entirely new products and services previously unavailable at any price.

Measurement of the impact of new goods is ‘pretty much guesswork at present’ and ‘some very large gains in consumer welfare’ may be missed (Moulton 1996, p. 173).

An important bias affecting the measurement of prosperity is greater longevity.


The life expectancy of males at birth improved by 5.9 years between 1970-72 and 1995-97, and by another 3.6 years by 2005-2007 (Statistics New Zealand 2009a). Life expectancy of males at birth increased by a mere 1.3 years from 1950-52 to 1970-72!

Becker et al. (2005) estimated that the six year increase in New Zealand life expectancy between 1965 and 1995 amplified the 34.3 per cent increase in New Zealand GDP per capita to the income equivalent of a 47.3 per cent rise. Becker et al. (2005) estimated that the 73.5 per cent rise in Australian GDP per capita between 1965 and 1995 was enhanced to 95.5 per cent after adjustment for the seven year increase in life expectancy.

Reality television programmes are common-place using the large differences in even 20th century living standards as their theme. The latest niche targeting younger audiences is programmes about the technological backwardness of the 1970s and even the 1980s.

The great enrichment – Deirdre McCloskey’s 2013 John Bonython lecture on ABC Radio

Capitalism has raised living standards worldwide by a thousand fold. Societies that respect innovation and entrepreneurship can expect more of the same.

In the space of just a couple of hundred years real incomes and living standards have risen dramatically. From peasantry to prosperity – how did it happen ?

According to McCloskey in her 2013 John Bonython lecture presented by the Centre for Independent Studies, it was ideological change, rather than saving or exploitation, that created this prosperous modern world.

McCloskey proclaims  “it’s OK to be in business”  and asks those critical of capitalism to re-think their opposition.

Business and enterprise, she suggests, is altruistic, cooperative and the best way to lift living standards in developing and emerging economies.

In a marvellous speech in India on the origins of economic freedom (and its subsequent fruits), Deirdre McCloskey aptly crystallizes the deeper implications of her work on bourgeois virtues and bourgeois dignity:

The leading Bollywood films changed their heroes from the 1950s to the 1980s from bureaucrats to businesspeople, and their villains from factory owners to policemen, in parallel with a similar shift in the ratio of praise for market-tested improvement and supply in the editorial pages of The Times of India…

Did the change from hatred to admiration of market-tested improvement and supply make possible the Singh Reforms after 1991?

Without some change in ideology Singh would not in a democracy have been able to liberalize the Indian economy…

…After 1991 and Singh much of the culture didn’t change, and probably won’t change much in future.

Economic growth does not need to make people European.

Unlike the British, Indians in 2030 will probably still give offerings to Lakshmi and the  son of Gauri, as they did in 1947 and 1991.

Unlike the Germans, they will still play cricket, rather well.

So it’s not deep “culture.” It’s sociology, rhetoric, ethics, how people talk about each other.

Technology, not carbon caps, will reduce emissions – Roger Pielke, Jr.

a “carbon cap” necessarily means that a government is committing to either a cessation of economic growth or to the systematic advancement of technological innovation in energy systems on a predictable schedule, such that economic growth is not constrained.

Because halting economic growth is not an option, in China or anywhere else, and because technological innovation does not occur via fiat, there is in practice no such thing as a carbon cap.

Where carbon caps have been attempted, such as in the European Trading Scheme, clever legislators have used gimmicks, such as carbon offsets, or set caps unrealistically high so that negative effects on GDP do not result and the unpredictability of energy innovation does not become an issue.

via Technology, not carbon caps, will reduce emissions – FT.com.

Robert Lucas on the role of income redistribution in economic development

clip_image002

Of the tendencies that are harmful to sound economics, the most seductive, and in my opinion the most poisonous, is to focus on questions of distribution.

In this very minute, a child is being born to an American family and another child, equally valued by God, is being born to a family in India.

The resources of all kinds that will be at the disposal of this new American will be on the order of 15 times the resources available to his Indian brother.

This seems to us a terrible wrong, justifying direct corrective action, and perhaps some actions of this kind can and should be taken.

But of the vast increase in the well-being of hundreds of millions of people that has occurred in the 200-year course of the industrial revolution to date, virtually none of it can be attributed to the direct redistribution of resources from rich to poor.

The potential for improving the lives of poor people by finding different ways of distributing current production is nothing compared to the apparently limitless potential of increasing production.

via The Industrial Revolution: Past and Future 2003 Annual Report Essay by Robert E. Lucas, Jr

Deirdre McCloskey on why poverty matters more than inequality (BBC Radio interview)

In place of capitalism, she talks of a system of ‘market-tested innovation and supply’:

You have to ask what the source of the inequality is.

If the source is stealing from poor people, I’m against it.

But if the source is, you got there first with an innovation that everyone wants to buy, so you get paid some crazy sum, you ought to be paid so much, don’t you think?

There is noting to be gained by focusing on inequality.

McCloskey

McCloskey’s characteristically extravagant self-description:

postmodern free-market quantitative rhetorical Episcopalian feminist Aristotelian woman who was once a man.

She asks that compared to all the envy driven policies, what has helped the poor more than increasing the size of pie?

McCloskey argued that:

  • Equality is not an ethically sensible purpose.
  • Changes in inequality was made an issue by the intellectuals, not by the working class.
  • Absolute poverty is what matters and can be solved.
  • Inequality is a fool’s errand.
  • Who are you going to trust to fix a problem is the key?
  • You must look at the actual ability of government to do various things.
  • predicting the future of human affairs is a deeply foolish project.

Make Bono history | The Economist

 

Presidents and prime ministers in the West have made grandiloquent speeches about making poverty history for fifty years.

In 2000 the United Nations announced a series of eight Millenium Development Goals to reduce poverty, improve health and so on. The impact of such initiatives has been marginal at best.

Almost all of the fall in the poverty rate should be attributed to economic growth.

Fast-growing economies in the developing world have done most of the work.

Between 1981 and 2001 China lifted 680m people out of poverty.

Since 2000, the acceleration of growth in developing countries has cut the numbers in extreme poverty outside China by 280m

Between 1981 and 2010, China lifted a 680 million people out poverty—more than the entire population of Latin America. This cut the poverty rate in China from 84% in 1980 to about 10% in 2010.

The record of poverty reduction has profound implications for aid.

One of the main purposes of setting development goals was to give donors a wish list and persuade them to put more resources into the items on the list.

This may have helped in some areas but it is hard to argue that aid had much to do with halving poverty.

via Poverty: Not always with us | The Economist and The Economist 

Previous Older Entries Next Newer Entries

Bassett, Brash & Hide

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Truth on the Market

Scholarly commentary on law, economics, and more

The Undercover Historian

Beatrice Cherrier's blog

Matua Kahurangi

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Temple of Sociology

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Velvet Glove, Iron Fist

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Why Evolution Is True

Why Evolution is True is a blog written by Jerry Coyne, centered on evolution and biology but also dealing with diverse topics like politics, culture, and cats.

Down to Earth Kiwi

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

NoTricksZone

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Homepaddock

A rural perspective with a blue tint by Ele Ludemann

Kiwiblog

DPF's Kiwiblog - Fomenting Happy Mischief since 2003

The Dangerous Economist

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Watts Up With That?

The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change

The Logical Place

Tim Harding's writings on rationality, informal logic and skepticism

Doc's Books

A window into Doc Freiberger's library

The Risk-Monger

Let's examine hard decisions!

Uneasy Money

Commentary on monetary policy in the spirit of R. G. Hawtrey

Barrie Saunders

Thoughts on public policy and the media

Liberty Scott

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Point of Order

Politics and the economy

James Bowden's Blog

A blog (primarily) on Canadian and Commonwealth political history and institutions

Science Matters

Reading between the lines, and underneath the hype.

Peter Winsley

Economics, and such stuff as dreams are made on

A Venerable Puzzle

"The British constitution has always been puzzling, and always will be." --Queen Elizabeth II

The Antiplanner

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Bet On It

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

History of Sorts

WORLD WAR II, MUSIC, HISTORY, HOLOCAUST

Roger Pielke Jr.

Undisciplined scholar, recovering academic

Offsetting Behaviour

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

JONATHAN TURLEY

Res ipsa loquitur - The thing itself speaks

Conversable Economist

In Hume’s spirit, I will attempt to serve as an ambassador from my world of economics, and help in “finding topics of conversation fit for the entertainment of rational creatures.”

The Victorian Commons

Researching the House of Commons, 1832-1868

The History of Parliament

Articles and research from the History of Parliament Trust

Books & Boots

Reflections on books and art

Legal History Miscellany

Posts on the History of Law, Crime, and Justice

Sex, Drugs and Economics

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

European Royal History

Exploring the Monarchs of Europe

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Cutting edge science you can dice with

Marginal REVOLUTION

Small Steps Toward A Much Better World

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

“We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert”. - J Robert Oppenheimer.

STOP THESE THINGS

The truth about the great wind power fraud - we're not here to debate the wind industry, we're here to destroy it.

Lindsay Mitchell

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Alt-M

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

croaking cassandra

Economics, public policy, monetary policy, financial regulation, with a New Zealand perspective

The Grumpy Economist

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

International Liberty

Restraining Government in America and Around the World