Claudia Goldin and the power of the pill

Claudia Goldin has documented well that the availability of reliable contraception in the late 1960s led to an explosion in female investment in higher education, and in particular, long duration professional educations.

Although rapidly disseminated among married women once it came on the market in 1960, the pill at first was almost inaccessible to single females, due to the prevailing state laws on prescriptions of drugs.

Liberalisation of availability for single females was on a state-by-state basis and was staggered over a few years. This allowed Claudia Goldin to study what happened to investment in professional education by young women in each of those states as they reformed their laws on the dispensing of contraception to single females.

As contraception was made lawful for single women on a state-by-state basis in the USA in the late 60s and 1970s, young women started investing in long duration professional educations at an explosive rate. They stayed in high school the longer, more young women went on to college, and more of these college female students majored in long duration professional degrees.

In the 1960s, it was common to get engaged and even marry while at college in the USA. As Claudia Goldin, and her co-author Larry Katz explain:

It was a stark choice, you could be celibate, get your career started, and potentially face a very thin marriage market once you were done.

Or, you could have fun, get married earlier, and not necessarily have a career.

The availability of the pill allowed  college-age women to have certainty in their career investments and therefore the payoff of investing in professional educations was much greater.

Participation Rates Women

By decoupling sex for marriage, women could afford to defer marriage and shop around looking for better partners. Postponing marriage for at least a few years didn’t mean all the “good guys” would be taken. In addition, with higher career incomes for female college graduates, as Goldin explained:

You might think of it as the decline of the trophy wife, as women with careers who might not be as intrinsically good-looking became more highly valued than—or at least as equally valued as—women for whom appearance was a primary asset.

But as Goldin’s co-author Larry Katz explained:

Potential losers in this equation, in addition to trophy wives, are women with poor career prospects.

The clear winners are women with careers and, of course, the men they marry… Guys have more money, more sex, and less responsibility.

One side effect of the availability of contraception to better educated women was that young women with poor career prospects were also left with a pool of more unattractive men to marry.

Many of these young women who wanted to have  baby chose just to have the child, and perhaps marry the father later if the responsibilities of fatherhood turned him into marriage material.

This reversal in order of parenthood and marriage  among less well educated young women was one of the surprising social developments in the mid to late 20th century.

A favourite line from Seinfeld

Environmental and Urban Economics: Do Demographers Really Predict Future Population Trends Without Incorporating Women’s Economic Incentives?

To my amazement, this work does not discuss how women’s potential earnings in the labor market correlates with fertility decisions.

At least in the Demography paper linked to above, the word “incentives” does not appear in the paper and nobody makes a choice based on the costs and benefits of fertility.

Without incorporating such factors, how can a statistical model yield a credible prediction?

via Environmental and Urban Economics: Do Demographers Really Predict Future Population Trends Without Incorporating Women’s Economic Incentives?.

Women graduates increasingly put their partner’s career first after they graduate | Daily Mail Online

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Women are increasingly putting their husband’s career before their own, a controversial new study of Harvard Business School graduates has found.

It canvassed over 25,000 male and female students, and found 40 percent of Gen X and boomer women said their spouses’ careers took priority over theirs.

The researchers also said only about 20 percent of them had planned on their careers taking a back seat when they graduated.

This gender gap  found by Robin Ely, Colleen Ammerman and Pamela Stone can be better explained by the marriage market combined with assortative mating.

1. Harvard business graduates are likely to marry each other and form power couples.

2. There tends to be an age gap between men and women in long-term relationships and marriages of say two years.

This two year age gap means that the husband as two additional years of work experience and career advancement. This is highly likely to translate into higher pay and more immediate promotional prospects.

Maximising household income would imply that the member of the household with a higher income, and greater immediate promotional prospects stay in the workforce.

It is entirely possible that women to anticipate this situation both in their subject choices and career ambitions.

Claudia Goldin found that the wage gap between male and female Harvard graduates disappears in the presence of one confounding factor.

That confounding factor is obvious: the male in the relationship earns less. When this is so, Goldin found that the female in the relationship earns pretty much as do similar male Harvard graduates, except for the fact that they work less hours per week:

We identify three proximate factors that can explain the large and rising gender gap in earnings: a modest male advantage in training prior to MBA graduation combined with rising labour market returns to such training with post-MBA experience; gender differences in career interruptions combined with large earnings losses associated with any career interruption (of six or more months); and growing gender differences in weekly hours worked with years since MBA.

Differential changes by sex in labour market activity in the period surrounding a first birth play a key role in this process. The presence of children is associated with less accumulated job experience, more career interruptions, shorter work hours, and substantial earnings declines for female but not for male MBAs.

The one exception is that an adverse impact of children on employment and earnings is not found for female MBAs with lower-earning husbands.

This sociological evidence reported in the Daily Mail is entirely consistent with the choice hypothesis and equalising differentials as the explanation for the gender wage gap. As Solomon Polachek explains:

At least in the past, getting married and having children meant one thing for men and another thing for women. Because women typically bear the brunt of child-rearing, married men with children work more over their lives than married women.

This division of labour is exacerbated by the extent to which married women are, on average, younger and less educated than their husbands.

This pattern of earnings behaviour and human capital and career investment will persist  until women start pairing off with men who are the same age or younger than them.

via Women graduates increasingly put their partner’s career first after they graduate | Daily Mail Online.

The role of steady employment in looking for Mr. Right

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Too few good men – rational behaviour and the causes of teen pregnancies

The causes of teen pregnancies are well described in Kathryn Edin and Maria Kefalas’s Promises I Can Keep: Why Poor Women Put Motherhood Before Marriage and Jason DeParle’s American Dream: Three Women, Ten Kids, and a Nation’s Drive to End Welfare. See Amy Wax’s superb book review Too few good men.

Women on a low social trajectory see no reason to wait before having a baby and they look down upon those women that wait.

People now regard marriage as a luxury good rather than as a necessity. They refuse to tie the knot unless they have first achieved economic success. A house, a well-paying job, and enough money for a nice wedding are now needed before considering a trip to the altar.

These young women put motherhood first and have no intention of marrying the layabouts that often father their children, most of all, because of repeated and open infidelity.

The women do not complain of men’s failure to earn enough, but rather of their unwillingness to grasp opportunities, work steadily, and spend wisely. The objection is not to modest earning power, but to financial profligacy, defiant attitudes, and lack of work discipline…

The most vociferous complaints are reserved for men’s chronic criminal behaviour, drug use, violence, and, above all, repeated and flagrant sexual infidelity.

Most men made no effort to hide their frequent liaisons, which were often carried on simultaneously. More often than not, those relationships produced babies

Having a baby changes these young women from extras on the stage of life to a mother and all the community respect and social standing that commands.

Babies need not await the achievement of an elevated position in life, because childbearing is a fundamental hallmark of female adulthood that is central to poor women’s dignity and identity.

In the authors’ words, “women rely on their children to bring validation, purpose, companionship, and order to their often chaotic lives — things they find hard to come by in other ways.” In a perverse inversion of old values, these woman have come to regard lone motherhood as the ultimate heroic act, the proving ground of their responsible devotion to others.

These new mothers try and clean up their act. They stop drinking and taking drugs. For the first time in their lives they have a purpose, which is to raise a child.

Far too many social commentators see a teen pregnancy through their own lens as a middle class parent and the despair they would fell because their daughter will not go to university and all that brings including a better class of husband.

University educated couples are not called power couples for nothing – their earning power is this stunning compared to going it on your own. The emergence of power couples means that less educated women may prefer to stay single and raise children on their own rather than marry what is left in the marriage pool.

On marriage as a humanly devised set of constraints

Doug Allen challenges you to describe marriage to a 19 year old male who had never heard of it before:

  • Marriage is all about responsibility, monogamy and a painful exit if things go awry.
  • Yes, there is the prospect of children, and mutual support, but only if you sign up to child support obligations, community property rules and many other constraints that are enforceable.

The role of the state in marriage is all about protecting mothers from opportunistic breach of a long-term contract with sequential performance. Mothers produce the children up-front while the fathers support the children over a long period subsequent. The problem is dead-beat dads.

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