Oliver Hartwich writes – In his victory speech, Donald Trump promised Americans a new “golden age”. While he had the numbers to win the election, the economic realities he faces will make delivering on his promise challenging. Trump’s victory reflects many Americans’ frustrations with living standards and inflation during the Biden-Harris administration. Vice President Kamala […]
Trump’s victory: Golden age or fiscal reckoning?
Trump’s victory: Golden age or fiscal reckoning?
14 Nov 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, industrial organisation, international economics, labour economics, law and economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA, property rights, public economics Tags: 2024 presidential election
Reeves to make Bank of England put climate change and growth on equal footing
31 Oct 2024 Leave a comment
in economics of bureaucracy, economics of climate change, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming, macroeconomics, monetary economics, Public Choice Tags: British politics, climate activists, climate alarmism, monetary policy
By Paul Homewood So much for the Bank’s much vaunted independence! Rachel Reeves is planning to make the Bank of England take climate change as seriously as growth, as the Chancellor seeks to use her maiden Budget to overhaul the economy. In a letter to Governor Andrew Bailey on Wednesday, Ms Reeves is […]
Reeves to make Bank of England put climate change and growth on equal footing
Biden-Harris policies and their consequences were no surprise to those paying attention
30 Oct 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, economics of regulation, energy economics, entrepreneurship, environmental economics, financial economics, fiscal policy, global warming, health economics, income redistribution, industrial organisation, law and economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA, property rights, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking Tags: 2024 presidential election, drug lags, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment
Milton Friedman used to advise researchers to focus on large policy changes rather than attempting to separate a small change’s signal from the noise. In this sense, the “ambitious” policy agenda of the Biden-Harris administration was expected to be a gift to the research community. Accepting this gift, since 2020 I have been making forecasts…
Biden-Harris policies and their consequences were no surprise to those paying attention
Inquiring into banking
02 Oct 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economics of bureaucracy, economics of regulation, financial economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: monetary policy competition law
Hard on the heels of the Commerce Commission’s inquiry into some aspects of banking competition, Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee is also holding an inquiry. Submissions weren’t open for very long and have now closed, but the full terms of reference are here. It is a select committee inquiry, so it is hard to be […]
Inquiring into banking
Another zero lower bound prediction bites the dust
28 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, history of economic thought, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, public economics, unemployment Tags: New Keynesian macroeconomics
Popular New Keynesian macroeconomic models predict that cuts in various types of distortionary taxes are contractionary when monetary policy is constrained at the zero lower bound. We turn to a long span of history in the United Kingdom to test this hypothesis. Using a new long-run dataset of narrative-identified tax changes from 1918to 2020, we […]
Another zero lower bound prediction bites the dust
Proof that NZ’s Reserve Bank has Inflicted Unnecessary Pain up and down the Nation.
27 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, unemployment Tags: economics of pandemics, monetary policy
In the past few hours, it has been stated that the US economy grew at a solid 3% rate last quarter, as given in the American government’s final estimate. New Zealand’s economy, on the other hand, shrank at a rate of -0.2%. The US Federal Funds rate (the equivalent of NZ’s Official Cash Rate, OCR)…
Proof that NZ’s Reserve Bank has Inflicted Unnecessary Pain up and down the Nation.
Why the Fed Cut Sent Stocks Soaring
23 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, entrepreneurship, financial economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: monetary policy
When rates go low, future profits go high. Everyone wants a cutBy Richard B. McKenzie. Excerpt:”Profits in the future, dollar for dollar, are worth less than current dollars. This is because current profits can earn interest between now and the future, which means that future profits must be discounted by some percentage to make them…
Why the Fed Cut Sent Stocks Soaring
Failing Banks
11 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic history, financial economics, global financial crisis (GFC), great depression, great recession, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA Tags: bank panics, bank runs
From Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner: Why do banks fail? We create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1865 through 2023 to study the history of failing banks in the United States. Failing banks are characterized by rising asset losses, deteriorating solvency, and an increasing reliance on expensive non-core funding. Commonalities across…
Failing Banks
Interview with Greg Mankiw: New Keynesian Macro, Growth, and Economic Policy
04 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, budget deficits, business cycles, development economics, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, Edward Prescott, fiscal policy, great depression, history of economic thought, labour economics, law and economics, macroeconomics, Milton Friedman, monetarism, monetary economics, politics - USA, Public Choice, Robert E. Lucas, unemployment
Jon Hartley interviews Greg Mankiw on topics including New Keynesian macroeconomics, growth, and economic policy more broadly at his Capitalism and Freedom website (August 20, 2024, video and transcript available). Here are a few of the comments that caught my eye. On big models and small models in studying the macroeconomy: [O]n the issue of…
Interview with Greg Mankiw: New Keynesian Macro, Growth, and Economic Policy
Fiscal and monetary policy
27 Aug 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, financial economics, fiscal policy, history of economic thought, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: monetary policy
Over the last few years, The Treasury seems to have been toying with bidding for a more significant role for fiscal policy as a countercyclical stabilisation tool It seemed to start when Covid hubris still held sway – didn’t we do well? – and the first we saw of it in public was at a […]
Fiscal and monetary policy
Election Rule #1: Don’t Support Your Opponent
19 Aug 2024 Leave a comment
in economic history, industrial organisation, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA Tags: 2024 presidential election, inflation, monetary policy
Who is advising this woman? In what universe do they think she can say this and at the same time fool enough voters that she hasn’t been part of the Biden Administration that has had these price hikes happen on their watch, on her watch. Did they not think that Trump’s campaign would run with […]
Election Rule #1: Don’t Support Your Opponent
Finally, exchange rate models seem to work pretty well
14 Aug 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic history, financial economics, history of economic thought, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA Tags: exchange rates, monetary policy
Exchange-rate models fit very well for the U.S. dollar in the 21st century. A “standard” model that includes real interest rates and a measure of expected inflation for the U.S. and the foreign country, the U.S. comprehensive trade balance, and measures of global risk and liquidity demand is well-supported in the data for the U.S. […]
Finally, exchange rate models seem to work pretty well
Stablecoins – a digital version of Swiss bearer savings books
13 Aug 2024 Leave a comment
in history of economic thought, law and economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, property rights Tags: bitcoin, Switzerland
Before anti-money laundering laws arrived in Switzerland, anyone could walk into a Swiss bank and open an account without showing any ID. The bank would then issue you something called a bearer savings book, otherwise known as inhabersparheften or livrets d’épargne au porteur. Ownership of the savings book was considered by the bank to be…
Stablecoins – a digital version of Swiss bearer savings books
Thought and Details on the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
30 Jul 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, economic history, history of economic thought, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetarism, monetary economics, unemployment Tags: monetary policy
The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level has been percolating among monetary theorists for over three decades: Eric Leeper being the first to offer a formalization of the idea, with Chris Sims and Michael Woodford soon contributed to its further development. But the underlying idea that the taxation power of the state is essential for […]
Thought and Details on the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
Treasury says one thing in a speech but quite another in the BEFU
28 Jul 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, inflation targeting, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, unemployment Tags: monetary policy
I picked up The Post this morning to find the lead story headlined “Recession hits homes harder than businesses”, reporting a speech given earlier this week by Treasury’s deputy secretary and chief economic adviser Dominick Stephens. There was an account of the same speech, but with some different material, on BusinessDesk a couple of days […]
Treasury says one thing in a speech but quite another in the BEFU
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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