Female voting demographics and the growth of government

The gender gap in voting dates back 2 generations or more and may now be in double digits.

A large share of all social spending is for the care of dependents – everything from children to non-working mothers and old age pensioners. Women support this spending because they benefit more from the social insurance it offers. Women both earn less and are more likely to be out of the workforce caring for children. Women also change their voting patterns more often than men as they marry and divorce or as they become single mothers.

John  Lott pondered on why the government started growing precisely when it did. The federal government, aside from periods of wartime, consumed 2 to 3%  of GDP up until World War I. In the 1920s, non-military federal spending began steadily climbing. FDR’s New Deal continued an earlier trend.

Lott explains the growth of government with women’s suffrage. For decades, polls have shown that women as a group vote differently than men. Without the women’s vote, Republicans would have swept every U.S. presidential race but one between 1968 and 2004.

A major gender gap issue is smaller government and lower taxes, which is a much higher priority for men. Women were more opposed to the 1996 federal welfare reforms, which mandated time limits for receiving welfare and imposed work requirements on welfare recipients.

Women are also supporters of Medicare, Social Security and educational expenditures more than men. Studies show that women are generally more risk-averse than men so they support government programs to ensure against certain risks in life.

  • Women’s average incomes are also slightly lower and less likely to vary so single women prefer more progressive income taxes.
  • Once women marry, they bear a greater share of taxes through their husbands’ relatively higher incomes so their support for high taxes declines.

Marriage also provides an economic explanation for why men and women prefer different policies.

Single women who believe they may marry as well as married women who most fear divorce, look for protection against possible divorce: a more progressive tax system and other government transfers of wealth from rich to poor.

Lott considers that A good way to analyse the direct effect of women’s suffrage on the growth of government is to study how each of the 48 state governments expanded after women obtained the right to vote.

  • Women’s suffrage was first granted in western states seeking women migrants: Wyoming (1869), Utah (1870), Colorado (1893) and Idaho (1896).
  • Women could vote in 29 states before women’s suffrage was achieved nationwide in 1920 with the adoption of the 19th Amendment to the Constitution.

The impact of granting of women’s suffrage was startling: state governments started expanding the first year after women voted and continued growing until real per capita spending more than doubled. The increase in government spending and revenue started immediately after women started voting.

There were 19 states that had not passed women’s suffrage before the approval of the 19th Amendment, nine approved the amendment, while the other 12 had suffrage imposed on them.

If some unknown third factor caused a desire for larger government and women’s suffrage, government should have only grown in states that voluntarily adopted suffrage. After approving women’s suffrage, government grew at a similar pace in both groups of states.

As more women voted and eventually voted in similar numbers as men, the size of state and federal governments expanded as women became an increasingly important part of the electorate. It took up to 30 years for women’s voting participation rate to equal that of men.

Lott also found that women’s political views on average vary more than those of men:

  • Young single women are about 50 per cent more likely to vote Democratic.
  • For married women, this gap is only one-third as large.
  • Married women with children become more conservative still.
  • Women with children who are divorced are suddenly about 75 per cent more likely to vote for Democrats than single men.

Not surprisingly, political parties pitch their platforms to women because they are more likely to change their vote over identifiable issues that are within the scope for government to change or influence

Hayek on the Mirage of Social Justice

Video

Vox Millennials

  • 73 percent of millennials favor allowing private accounts for Social Security; 51 percent favor private accounts even it means cutting Social Security benefits for current and future retirees because 53 percent of millennials say Social Security is unlikely to exist when they retire
  • 64 percent of millennials say cutting government spending by 5 percent would help the economy
  • 59 percent say cutting taxes would help the economy
  • 57 percent prefer a smaller government providing fewer services with low taxes, while 41 percent prefer a larger government providing more services with high taxes
  • 57 percent want a society where wealth is distributed according to achievement
  • 55 percent say reducing regulations would help the economy
  • 53 percent say reducing the size of government would help the economy
  • 74 percent of millennials say government has a responsibility to guarantee every citizen has a place to sleep and enough to eat

HT: reason.com

Crony capitalism defined

Screen Shot 2014-04-30 at 2.17.55 PM

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UK Labour supporters admit it: taxes are to punish the rich, not to raise revenue

via Labour supporters admit it: taxes are to punish the rich, not to raise revenue – Telegraph Blogs and http://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/2014/02/04/what-motivates-the-left-envy-or-greed/

The median voter theorem

The median voter is the voter in the middle: the voter who has as many voters on either side of him.

Milton Friedman – A Conversation On Minimum Wage

via Milton Friedman – A Conversation On Minimum Wage – YouTube.

The application of John Rawls difference principle to New Zealand

An urban legend in New Zealand is that income inequality is going from bad to worse.

Since the mid 1990s to around 2011 there was a small net fall in New Zealand’s income inequality trend line in the graph for the Gini coefficient for the income distribution for New Zealand shows. inequality in New Zealand is similar to that in Australia, Ireland, Canada and Japan.

gini coefficient nz

Source: Ministry of Social Development (2014)

Taxes and transfers have reduced inequality in New Zealand when measured by Gini coefficients, but the trend is been relatively stable for many years.

gini after income transfer

Source: Ministry of Social Development (2014)

Rawls pointed out that behind the veil of ignorance, people will agree to inequality as long as it is to everyone’s advantage. Rawls was attuned to the importance of incentives in a just and prosperous society. If unequal incomes are allowed, this might turn out to be to the advantage of everyone. Robert Nozick said that:

Political philosophers must now either work within Rawls’s theory or explain why not.

The groups that have been doing best in New Zealand have been Maori and Pasifika. In real terms, overall median household income rose 47% from 1994 to 2010; for Maori, this rise was 68%; for Pacific, 77%!

image

Source: Ministry of Social Development (2014)

The large improvements in Māori incomes since 1992 were based on rising Māori employment rates, fewer Māori on benefits or zero incomes, more Māori moving into higher paying jobs, and greater Māori educational attainment (Dixon and Maré 2007).

Maori unemployment reached a 20-year low of 8 per cent from 2005 to 2008. Labour force  participation by Maori increased from 45% in the late 1980s to about 62%  in the last few years.

Most of the remaining income disparities between Māori and non-Māori flow from differences in educational attainment and demographic and socio-economic characteristics including household composition (Chapple 2000; Maani 2004; Dixon and Maré 2007).

How much of the massive increases in incomes over the last 20 years spread throughout the entire community are you willing to give up for a little more equality? How much of your income will you donate to charity to lead the way?

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Economic policy uncertainty and political polarisation in the USA

John van Reenen, Nicholas Bloom, Scott Bakerand Steven Davis produced these nice charts for the LSE blog:

The 90th Congress of 1967-68 showed a considerable overlap in voting patterns between Democrats and Republicans along liberal and conservative issues allowing the possibility of more compromise. But there was essentially no voting overlap by the 100th Congress of 2007-08.

The system is working at last: The House And Senate Are the Most Divided in Our Lifetimes

image

One of the lessons of public choice for constitutional design is there should be two Houses of Parliament and each should be elected by a different method and different geographical basis.

Lower houses tend to be elected in single member constituencies; upper houses tend to be elected in larger multi-member, state-wide or national constituencies by proportional representation.

This diversity in legislative arrangements ensures that more people are participating in decision-making and it is harder to pass new laws without majority support.

The two elected chambers will clash as each exerts its mandate to represent the will of the people who elected it. The laws that pass these two chambers elected by different methods must have substantial popular support.

When upper and lower houses are elected by similar methods, it is much easier to assemble a majority through vote trading and lobbying.

Data via fivethirtyeight.com

The vote splitting comes from expressive voting

Expressive voting is the voting where people express themselves in support of things they approve of, and in opposition of what they disapprove of and make statements about themselves and what they belong to.

  • Voting is much like sending a get-well card, or cheering for the home team, or booing the visiting team.
  • We send the card and cheer primarily because of the expressive satisfaction it provides to us.

If hundreds of thousands or millions  vote on the same election, how you vote simply does not matter, so you can use it to feel good about yourself and a developer self-identity of this caring person. Voting becomes rather like cheering at a football match – the more noise the better but how loud you cheer as an individual doesn’t matter that much so you can cheer from whether you like.

The trouble is in expressive voting theory, voters know that feel-good policies are ineffective. Expressive voters do not  necessarily embrace dubious or absurd beliefs about the world. The expressive voting is not a product of ignorance, it’s a product of the fact that your vote is one among so many and will not change the result of the election.

Expressive voting not only explains why a lot of people vote, it also explains the higher voter turnout of the more educated. It also explains why people are more likely to vote in national elections than in local elections even though their vote is more likely to be decisive in local elections.

Expressive voting also explains why people often vote against their personal interests. The fact is that voting against your interests cost you almost nothing when there are countless others voting too. Voting against your interest seems to have some hair-shirt benefit.

That said, expressive voting is like any other good in demand, demand for a expressive voting declines with as the cost of it goes up. There is less expressive voting when elections are close and as the cost of policies supported by the expressive voter go up.

Under the preferential voting system in Australia , instead of voting for the Australian Labor Party, a swinging voter can vote Green as a protest vote and then vote liberal

If there were no greens to vote for, some of the protest vote will stay with Labour because the voter cannot cop-out and split their vote while still feeling good about themselves but still be able to vote for their wallets and vote for right-wing party.

The decline of class as a factor in voting

labouralp

At the UK General Election of 1964, a 2% of voters with no ‘working class characteristics’ voted Labour.

People’s socio-economic characteristics are now much less significant than they used to be as indicators of how they are likely to vote, for not only do many working class people vote for parties of the right, but large swathes of the middle class now vote Labour.

Support for Labor among manual working class voters as a whole was no higher than support for the right-wing parties in the 2004 Australian election.

If lower grade white collar occupations are included as working class, the right-wing parties in Australia actually achieved a small lead over the Australian Labor Party among working class voters.

POSSUM COMITATUS  asks why are the Greens strongest in the inner cities? What is the cause of Greens voters living in the inner cities?

greensindustry

He found that people working in the arts, education, media and technology industries are more likely to vote Green, and as a result of the distribution of workplaces for these industries having a higher density in the inner suburbs, the people living within close proximity to their workplaces naturally leads to the inner cities having higher levels of Greens voters. He concludes:

it’s just a modern evolution of class based electoral analysis – whereas the Labor vote used to correlate strongly with manufacturing and low skill, labour intensive industries – today, the Green vote correlates with new skilled services industries like arts, education, media and technology.

Inequality is in; discrimination is out for Next Generation Left

Question 1

P-P-2014-06-26-typology-4-04

Source: post-partisan

Walter Bagehot on parliamentary versus presidential government

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Milton Friedman on raising the minimum wage – the most ‘anti-black law in the land’

The minimum wage law is most properly described as a law saying that employers must discriminate against people who have low skills. That’s what the law says.

The law says that here’s a man who has a skill that would justify a wage of $5 or $6 per hour (adjusted for today), but you may not employ him, it’s illegal, because if you employ him you must pay him $9 per hour.

So what’s the result?  To employ him at $9 per hour is to engage in charity. There’s nothing wrong with charity. But most employers are not in the position to engage in that kind of charity.

Thus, the consequences of minimum wage laws have been almost wholly bad. We have increased unemployment and increased poverty.

via Milton Friedman responds to President Obama’s proposal to raise the minimum wage, the most ‘anti-black law in the land’ | AEIdeas.

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