The key role of housing costs in disaster recovery @ericcrampton @JordNZ #nzeq

The evidence abroad after earthquakes, hurricanes, flooding, tornados, and wartime bombing is that for growing cities, disasters, including carpet bombing and atomic bombs, are only temporary set-backs with few long-run economic and population consequences. A few years after a disaster, these cities even recover the industries they had before their calamities.

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For growing cites, the loss of housing and other destruction does not affect the underlying demand from workers and businesses to be at the location. Florida has prospered despite over twenty hurricanes striking since 1988 and five of the six most damaging Atlantic hurricanes of all time striking since 1988.

Cities that are already in decline drop down onto an even faster downward population and economic trend after a major natural disaster. A large scale destruction of housing takes away the one compensating feature of these declining cities, which was cheap housing.

Housing prices in declining cities are usually well below construction costs. Low living costs partly offset the relative lack of local economic opportunity in these cities. New Orleans is an example of a declining city that did not recover fully from a disaster for this reason.

After Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans had much higher costs of housing because of flood damage but there were limited local economic opportunities to attract back old and new residents. About 20 per cent of the Katrina evacuees did not return.

Natural disasters be they earthquakes or hurricanes turn declining cities and towns from a dump with cheap housing to a dump with expensive housing. They can be a killer blow.

The main policy enabler of growing cities in the USA has been the avoidance of land use regulations that raise housing costs. Over the past 20 years, the fastest growing U.S. regions have not been those with the highest income or most attractive climates.

Flexible housing supply is the key determinant of regional growth. Land use regulations drive housing supply and determine which regions are growing. A regional approach to enabling increases in land and housing supply might reduce the tendency of many localities to block new construction.

How to get back to the eastern suburbs from the CBD after an earthquake #eqnz

Take the bus. But not a trolley bus. We were going to walk home (7.8 km) but once we got to the edge of Mount Victoria, bus drivers were picking people up.

15039665_1226822937376797_3786107579487178196_o (1)

Buses could not get into the centre of town because of gridlock, so drivers showed the initiative to go to the perimeter of the CBD and going back out and in on their normal routes. They picked up many people. Do not start me on how useless trolley buses are after a natural disaster

Does urban rail ever pay is way?

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US, Australian and NZ real house prices, March 1975 to June 2016

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Source: International House Price Database – Dallas Fed.

Why European & American cities are dramatically different from one another

Source: Why European & American cities are dramatically different from one another – Ecoclimax

Econ Duel: Rent or Buy?

More on the emergence of Generation Rent in New Zealand

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Source: People: The Social Report 2016 – Te pūrongo oranga tangata.

When did a house become an investment? 40% price crash has happened before!

The Resource Management Act was passed in 1993.

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Source: Elizabeth Kendall, New Zealand house prices: a historical perspective, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND / BULLETIN, VOL. 79, NO. 1, JANUARY 2016.

Note that there is considerable regional variation in housing prices in New Zealand.

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Source: Property Prices in New Zealand | New Zealand Real Estate Prices.

Spot Generation Rent in New Zealand

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Source: Housing affordability: The Social Report 2016 – Te pūrongo oranga tangata from Perry (2015), Ministry of Social Development, using data from Statistics New Zealand’s Household Economic Survey.

Why is land so cheap in the USA?

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Land affordability, not housing affordability is the problem to be solved

The Greens and Labour both want to build 100,000 affordable houses over 10 years. Neither explain where the land will come from. Nor do the Greens explain how to make houses more affordability without making land cheaper.

Labour is the best of the two parties because they propose to abolish the Auckland urban limit and the constraint on land supply which that represents.

The Greens propose to get to where they want to go with taxes and bans on foreign buyers. Those proposals of the Greens do not increase the amount of land available and therefore the number of houses that will be built.

Housing affordability in Auckland is just getting worse

New Zealand leads house price to income ratio across the OECD

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Source: IMF Global Housing Watch

Fewer in emergency accommodation under @NZNationalParty? @PhilTwyford @cjsbishop

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Source: 24 August 2016, Most homeless people working or studying, News, University of Otago, New Zealand, table 4.

More on homelessness fell under @NZNationalParty? @CarmelSepuloni @cjsbishop

I cherry picked my previous data on homelessness if the New Zealand sub-Reddit is to be believed and from which I am banned and cannot reply. Plotting the data in full is to cherry pick it. The chart below is simply the first two rows of the source data. The subsequent rows deal with those in emergency accommodation and in temporary accommodation.

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Source: 24 August 2016, Most homeless people working or studying, News, University of Otago, New Zealand, table 4.

When I shared this data on Carmel Sepuloni MP’s Facebook page, she rightly and constructively said

Thanks for your comment Jim. Unfortunately the number living rough has increased since 2001. We want to focus on improving the future, which is why we are holding our homeless inquiries so we can best understand and address this issue:

Rather than pointscoring, the issue is what to do to fix the problem. How desperate is much of the rest of the Left to beat up this issue as the fault of John Key. This is an an important issue that should not be used for point scoring by sufferers of John Key derangement syndrome.

Homeless people are those who I charted above. They are sleeping rough or in a car. They have slipped through the social safety net which is obviously not working for them. If you are in emergency accommodation, the social safety net is working. The issue is making that safety net work better in terms of moving quickly into more permanent accommodation..

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