Newsroom asked some pollsters for their predictions for 2026. Mine are below: Every poll (or almost every poll) will show that both National and Labour will need two partner parties to govern, not just one – that is: only National/Act/New Zealand First and Labour/Greens/Te Pāti Māori will have enough seats to make 61. All 71…
My polling predictions at Newsroom
My polling predictions at Newsroom
22 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
Have the Greens lost their mojo?
19 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in politics - New Zealand Tags: regressive left
Bryce Edwards writes – The Green Party should be flying high right now. They’re not. As the 2026 election year begins in earnest, the Greens find themselves in a deeply anomalous position: polling has slumped, internal organisation has been shaken by staff departures and scandals, and the co-leaders seem strangely detached from the scale of […]
Have the Greens lost their mojo?
The black market crisis in tobacco
16 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in economics of crime, economics of regulation, health economics, law and economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: economics of smoking
A comprehensive article in the SST about the rise in black market tobacco sales in NZ. Some extracts: This is again a reminder that prohibition doesn’t work, and neither does trying to tax something so much to prohibit it.
The black market crisis in tobacco
Guest Post: No, the Supreme Court Didn’t Hand Climate Activists a Victory. It was an own goal.
15 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in economics of climate change, economics of regulation, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming, law and economics, politics - New Zealand, property rights Tags: climate activists
A guest post by Sean Rush: If you’ve read the headlines about Climate Clinic Aotearoa v Minister of Energy, you might believe a group of law students marched into the Supreme Court and reshaped New Zealand’s climate policy. The popular narrative suggests a solid victory to the students, with reports that the students created new law,…
Guest Post: No, the Supreme Court Didn’t Hand Climate Activists a Victory. It was an own goal.
The Post ranks the MPs
15 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
The Post has ranked Ministers and senior opposition MPs. This is their ratings, not mine. Agree with some, disagree with others. I thought the ranking for Willow-Jean Prime was a bit generous. The post The Post ranks the MPs first appeared on Kiwiblog.
The Post ranks the MPs
Western Leftists and Islamic States
14 Jan 2026 1 Comment
in economics of education, economics of media and culture, economics of religion, liberalism, Marxist economics, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, war and peace Tags: regressive left
Western leftists do criticise Islamic states at times—but they rarely prioritise opposing them, and often treat them with conspicuous restraint. That asymmetry is not accidental. It follows from the same ideological lenses that drive anti-Zionism. Here are the main reasons. 1. Anti-imperialism outweighs liberal values For much of the Western Left, opposition to Western power is the overriding moral […]
Western Leftists and Islamic States
Reserve Bank sees sense
08 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in business cycles, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand
The Reserve Bank announced: “Following the completion of the review commissioned by the Board in March, we are pleased to announce modernised capital rules that will support an efficient and resilient financial system,” said Rodger Finlay, Chair of the RBNZ Board. “We recalibrated our risk appetite to have regard to our new Financial Policy Remit,…
Reserve Bank sees sense
Bondi terror: The heroes we choose to remember
05 Jan 2026 1 Comment
in defence economics, economics of crime, law and economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: regressive left, war against terror
This may be an unpopular opinion.
Bondi terror: The heroes we choose to remember
Anti-Israel protesters today in Auckland intentionally blocked the public’s view of a sign saying HAMAS RAPED ROMI GONEN
04 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in defence economics, economics of crime, law and economics, laws of war, politics - New Zealand, war and peace Tags: Gaza Strip, regressive left, war against terror
Today I was counterprotesting the anti-Israel protest in Auckland CBD by holding a sign saying HAMAS RAPED ROMI GONEN and almost immediately anti-Israel protesters came to block the public’s view of my sign with a large kheffiyeh. Romi Gonen, by the way, is a civilian Israeli hostage who was kidnapped from the Nova music festival.…
Anti-Israel protesters today in Auckland intentionally blocked the public’s view of a sign saying HAMAS RAPED ROMI GONEN
Why not leave rubbish collection to the private sector?
31 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, economics of bureaucracy, environmental economics, industrial organisation, politics - New Zealand, privatisation, Public Choice, urban economics
Radio NZ reports: Auckland Councillors have voted not to proceed with a six-month trial of fortnightly kerbside rubbish collections in parts of the city, after considering public feedback. The proposed trial would’ve halved the number of kerbside collections in Te Atatū, Panmure, Tāmaki, Clendon Park and Weymouth, with the intention of reducing waste to landfill.…
Why not leave rubbish collection to the private sector?
Kiwiblog’s 2026 predictions
29 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA Tags: British politics
Here’s my 20 predictions for next year, which I’ll score at the end of the year. I got 13.5/20 right for 2025.
Kiwiblog’s 2026 predictions
Auckland Uni gets it right
29 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in economics of bureaucracy, economics of education, liberalism, Marxist economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: free speech, political correctness, regressive left
The Auckland University Freedom of Expression Statement looks very good. It is clear with few weasel words. Key extracts: The University actively fosters and supports lawful and constructive debate by its staff and students on any topic, including with the participation of external speakers invited by a staff member, or a recognised student association or student…
Auckland Uni gets it right
Book review: Economics of the New Zealand Maori
27 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, labour economics, law and economics, politics - New Zealand, property rights Tags: economic anthropology, Maori economic development
In amongst my collection of books, I have assembled a number of classics, including some reasonably rare editions. One of those is Economics of the New Zealand Maori [*] by Raymond Firth. This book was originally published from Firth’s PhD thesis in 1929 (the thesis was approved in 1927 at the University of London). The edition…
Book review: Economics of the New Zealand Maori
A good critique
26 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in politics - New Zealand Tags: free speech
David Harvey has a good critique of the proposed social media ban for under 16s. I certainly support the intent that we should keep under 16s off social media. The linkage to poor mental health outcomes is incredibly powerful – especially for girls. Even those who support the idea of a ban concede that enforcing…
A good critique
AI summary of my living wage paper
24 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, history of economic thought, income redistribution, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, minimum wage, politics - New Zealand, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: living wage
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