Labour-UKIP focus group one – full video – Election Data

Source: Labour-UKIP focus group one – full video – Election Data

#GeorgeOrwell on #Corbyn’s patriotism? #ToriesforCorbyn

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#GeorgeOrwell on the #Corbyn left? #ToriesforCorbyn

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Jeremy Corbyn on the future of the left (1988)

#Corbyn’s path to peace

Why you shouldn’t vote for Jeremy Corbyn | Nick Cohen

Source: Why you shouldn’t vote for Jeremy Corbyn | Coffee House

Who is the red tory?

Brutal Tory Attack Ad Says Labour Soft on ISIS

@JeremyCorbyn’s In The Thick of It moment: not knowing pop culture

There is an hilarious skit in The Thick of It where the minister discovers that an actor was the member of the focus group he was relying on for the best views of normal voters. He knew she was an actor because the minister saw her on East Enders. He saw her in the 40 minutes video he gets every week summarising developments in the soapies. He gets that video so he can have conversations with normal people. The actor was bought into the focus group to make up the numbers. I cannot find the actual clip.

Socialism DOES Work | Jeremy Corbyn | Oxford Union

A far right populist contradicts the median voter theorem

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Hanson, Trump, UKIP, Alternative for Germany, Marine Le Pen, and the anti-immigration but pro-welfare state populist parties in northern Europe are all smeared by the media as far right parties but also are described as right-wing populists. Media bias is still constrained by the median voter theorem.

You cannot be on the far right but win lots of votes because the extremes of the political spectrum account for few votes. What do you think left-wingers stay within the Labour Party despite wanting its leader to be tried for war crimes.

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Even in proportional representation systems, few far right and far left party set up on their own two feet and survive because of thresholds to win seats. There are Communist parties in European parliaments but their representation is small except for the Bundestag.

You cannot get into the 2nd round of the French presidential election, come 2nd in 40 British Labour Party seats, win the safest Labour Party seats in Queensland, and be attacked from Ted Cruz from the right and still be a far right winger.

All right-wing populist parties combine that heady brew of nationalism,opposition to immigration and free trade, and staunch support of the welfare state. Not surprisingly, something like 40% of their votes come from the traditional labour parties and social democratic parties.

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Source: EUROPP – The ‘reluctant radicals’ who offer conditional support to the far-right are key to understanding the success of right-wing populist parties in European elections.

Countering their appeal to the electorate cannot start with saying that anyone who votes for them is weird because the secret ballot allow secret malice.

The left is surprisingly bad at playing catch-up in identity politics. As one UKIP supporter said, I am a white working class Englishmen not on the benefit so Labour does not speak for me.

An inquiry established by Labour’s former policy chief, Jon Cruddas, MP found that Labour needs to

“stop patronising socially conservative Ukip voters and recognise the ways in which Ukip appeals to former Labour voters”, the report says, adding: “Labour is becoming a toxic brand. It is perceived by voters as a party that supports an ‘open door’ approach to immigration, lacks credibility on the economy, and is a ‘soft touch’ on welfare spending.”

At present, the report argues, Labour is “largely a party of progressive, social liberals who value principles such as equality, sustainability, and social justice.

It is losing connection with large parts of the voter population who are either pragmatists in their voting habits or social conservatives who value family, work, fairness and their country.” It adds: “Labour is becoming dangerously out of touch with the electorate and … unwilling to acknowledge this growing estrangement.”

Last PMQ of #Thatcher #Blair #Cameron

Diane Abbott: Chairman Mao “on balance did more good than harm” 

Peace activists didn’t use the knockdown argument against 2nd Iraq war

This idea of suing ministers for abuse of public office has appeal given the gap between many left-wing policies and sound economics.

https://twitter.com/_PaulMonaghan/status/751525929613156352

Anti-war MPs such as Jeremy Corbyn should be sued for abuse of public office and crimes against peace for not making the knockdown argument against the 2nd war against Iraq.

Instead, Corbyn said he did not like war without explaining how this was different from appeasement and surrender. The easiest way to stop a war is to surrender. The easiest way to start a war is to look weak to an aggressor.

That knockdown argument against the 2nd Iraq war argument was right under the noses of the peace movement. It was yes, Iraq has weapons of mass destruction.

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Source: The Secret Casualties of Iraq’s Abandoned Chemical Weapons – The New York Times

It is madness to invade a country that has weapons of mass destruction because they might use them especially if the objective is regime change. Iraq may not have had nuclear weapons, but the potential for Iraq to have biological and chemical weapons secreted away was real.

No one is mad enough to invade North Korea. They will use chemical and biological weapons on Seoul and Tokyo. Syria has chemical and biological weapons to make sure no one invades it.

From what I read, in the current Civil War, Syria uses chemical and biological weapons when it is on the retreat but does not use them to advance and claim new territory.

The reason why the renegade left could not possibly make this obvious argument against the war in Iraq, which was it could be a massive disaster if these chemical and biological weapons were used in desperation, was these peace activists would have to admit nuclear deterrence works. To stop a war by having to admit that weapons of mass destruction deter war was too much for the peace movement to swallow.

An admission that nuclear deterrence works would invalidate the entire political activism of the peace movements in the Cold War. The practical effect of those peace movements was, of course, to undermine the one factor preventing a nuclear war, which was nuclear deterrence.

Since 1945, at least seven or eight wars have occurred where one side had nuclear weapons. In 1973, Israel had nuclear weapons it could have used.

The reason for the non-use of nuclear weapons in those seven or eight wars including the 1973 Yom Kippur War was none were wars of annihilation. Nuclear weapons were more likely to be used if the suspected intention is to invade or occupy a country.

The Yom Kippur war was launched with a plan by President Sadat to reclaim the Sinai then after a few days agreed to an internationally brokered ceasefire. He was intending on reclaiming lost territory, not invading Israel proper continue and risk nuclear retaliation.

Saddam destroyed his nuclear, biological, and weapons but not his weapons development capability soon after he lost the first Iraq war. Saddam played a double strategy: make sure he was not caught with contraband but play a fine game of bluff making everybody think Iraq still has them so he remains a regional strongman.

Saddam could have produced biological and chemical weapons within weeks if he chose to do so but was probably 5 years away from a nuclear weapon. Chilcot’s recent report concluded:

The ingrained belief that Saddam Hussein’s regime retained chemical and biological warfare capabilities, was determined to preserve and if possible enhance its capabilities, including at some point in the future a nuclear capability, and was pursuing an active policy of deception and concealment, had underpinned UK policy towards Iraq since the Gulf Conflict ended in 1991.

The 2nd Iraq war started because Saddam fooled his enemies into thinking he had chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. He certainly had the Japan option. This is having in place the capability to produce weapons of mass destruction such as chemical and biological weapons quickly if he wanted.

Left of @uklabour to blame for Thatchernomics

Thatcher was able to implement her policies because the Labour Party of the 1980s failed to offer a credible alternative government. In the 1983 general election, Labour ran on policy such as

After barely upholding the social democratic alliance in 1983, British labour did slightly better after four more years of Maggie Thatcher. Labour won 30% of the vote in 1987, up from 27%. in 1983 The social democratic alliance drop down from 25% to 22%

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One reason was clever responses are national security  in the 1987 election such as this

On 24 May, Kinnock was interviewed by David Frost and claimed that Labour’s alternative defence strategy in the event of a Soviet attack would be “using the resources you’ve got to make any occupation totally untenable”.

In a speech two days later Mrs. Thatcher attacked Labour’s defence policy as a programme for “defeat, surrender, occupation, and finally, prolonged guerrilla fighting… I do not understand how anyone who aspires to Government can treat the defence of our country so lightly.”

In 1992, Labour still lost the election by a landslide despite 13 years of Thatcher good and ended its commitment to unilateral nuclear disarmament, high taxes and old-style nationalisation. Go left, go left so damaged the labour brand that a new generation of leaders was required.

The British electorate had every chance to vote for a hard left Labour in the 1980s. It rejected it resoundingly and almost voted in the social democratic alliance as the main opposition party.

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