Bryan Caplan on the economics of Star Trek replicators (that is, artificial intelligence)

replicator

Bryan Caplan wrote a blog a few years ago, explaining the labour economics of artificial intelligence, using an exam question he poses to his graduate students:

Suppose artificial intelligence researchers produce and patent a perfect substitute for human labour at zero MC.

Use general equilibrium theory to predict the overall economic effects on human welfare before AND after the Artificial Intelligence software patent expires.

He then gave the answer about a week later:

While the patent lasts, the patent-holder will produce a monopoly quantity of AIs. As a result, the effective labour supply increases, and wages for human beings fall – but not to 0 because the patent-holder keeps P>MC.

The overall effect on human welfare, however, is still positive! Since the AIs produce more stuff, and only humans get to consume, GDP per human goes up. How is this possible if wages fall?

Simple: Earnings for NON-labour assets (land, capital, patents, etc.) must go up. Humans who only own labour are worse off, but anyone who owns a home, stocks, etc. experiences offsetting gains.

When the patent expires, this effect becomes even more extreme. With 0 fixed costs, wages fall to MC=0, but total output – and GDP per human – skyrockets.

Human owners of land, capital, and other non-labour assets capture 100% of all output. Humans who only have labour to sell, however, will starve without charity or tax-funded redistribution.

His logic is quite good. Caplan drew attention in the responses to his blog of Capt J Parker and Alex Godofsky in the comments section of his blog.

James T. Kirk clear

My comments at the time were as follows:

  • An artificially intelligent  robot that was a perfect substitute for human labour sounds like the replicators on star trek?
  • Who operates the machines? who tells them what to do? what not to do?
  • After the patent expired, would anyone care if the poor stole/copied the AI machines and made them for for themselves. who cares if a free good is stolen?
  • Is it a crime to steal a replicator on star trek?

The trade-off between hiring higher-skilled and less-skilled workers

Firms differ in the skill compositions of their labour forces because higher-skilled labour is not always the most profitable type of labour to hire.

A profit-minded firm seeks low costs per unit of labour. In truth, nothing is expensive or cheap. This is because buyers will keep buying until the marginal cost equals the marginal benefit. The next unit was not purchased because it wasn’t worth the cost. The last unit was bought because its cost just matched its benefit.

The most cost-effective labour is the labour with the lowest ratio of wages to output. Low cost per unit of output is the goal whether it is comes from low wages or high labour productivity (Lazear 1998).


The wage spread between high quality and lower quality workers is large enough such that no employer hiring lower quality workers can profitably switch to hire higher quality recruits and no firms hiring high-quality workers will switch to hire lower quality recruits (Lazear 1998).

Employers will buy more of an under-priced skill until the returns to labour equalise again across different skill levels and the hiring of any more of the hitherto mispriced skill is no longer profitable because of rising wages.

Firms of all sizes will revisit their skills strategies when market conditions change if they hope to survive in their new circumstances.

The demand for labour is a derived demand

The willingness to pay of buyers is the fundamental constraint on wages, conditions, and job amenities including reduced hours of work. Entrepreneurs will not pay no more for inputs – be it labour, land, machinery, or raw materials – than they expect to recoup later on from the sale of their final product (Hicks 1932; Hamermesh 1996).

Wages reflect the value the employee adds to the sales of the firm. The value of what an employee adds is set by the consumers who buy or abstain from buying the output of the firm.

The prices that the final consumer will pay or refuse to pay for products assigns to each kind of labour used in its production a maximum profitable wage. An employer cannot pay higher wages or provide more generous working conditions if buyers are not willing to pay more to cover the extra cost of this (Hicks 1932; Stigler 1987). A profit minded employer cannot grant favours to employees at the expense of customers.

Employers compete for the services of workers who are seeking a range of jobs in industry and occupational labour markets in the areas in which they live. An employer who offers wages, working hours and conditions below what others are paying for the extra value added by a worker will experience higher staff turnover as employees quit to more rewarded jobs elsewhere (Stigler 1987).

These less alert employers will also struggle to recruit and retain the types of workers that are the most profitable for that firm to employ unless they pay the going rate. Rivalry with other sellers sets the maximum on what an employer can profitably pay in wages and survive.

Competition from other employers sets a minimum in wages, hours, working conditions and job amenities to recruit and retain a profitable workforce. Wages are demarked both by what consumers are willing to pay for what the firm produces and by what wages that rival employers are offering in comparable jobs (Stigler 1987).

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