It’s the Trend, Stupid

If I had a dollar for every time a climate alarmist talked about how hot this summer was or how strong that cyclone was is evidence of global warming, I’d be a rich man.

They can’t then go around saying a sample size of 17 years is too short to assess trends will show evidence of global warming when they routinely use a sample of one for their own global warming alarmism.

Russell Norman on Cyclone stream

Naturally, such is the high stakes of the never admit you’re wrong, never concede anything public political discourse of these days, if a fellow traveller oversteps the mark, you gain nothing from calling him out as someone who overstepped the mark.

tamino's avatarOpen Mind

Both NASA and NOAA report 2014 as the hottest year on record. Despite the new #1, neither the news itself nor the response to it has surprised me.

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Double standards watch: was Milton Friedman a double secret communist agent?

In March 1975, Friedman had a 45-minute meeting with Pinochet while he was on a private visit to Chile. Friedman later wrote a letter to that tin-pot military dictator proposing some economic remedies. That advice was the same advice he gave to countries all around the world such as to the government of India in 1955 .

Friedman advocated quick and severe cuts in government spending and inflation, deregulation, a floating exchange rate  and more open international trade policy and to

provide for the relief of any cases of real hardship and severe distress among the poorest classes.

Milton Friedman first visited China in 1980. According to Ronald Coase’s book on Chinese economic reform, as part of that visit, Friedman gave a week long seminar to Chinese government officials.  Friedman met with the  leadership of this totalitarian dictatorship. Friedman returned again as a guest of the Chinese government in 1988 and 1993:

Milton Friedman and his wife Rose visited China in 1980 and 1988 to learn about the economic reform that was taking place there and to share their economic knowledge and insights with the Chinese people.

Friedman gave lectures in numerous cities and held discussions with government officials, managers, bankers, students, professors and even with ordinary people in their homes and on the streets.

In their second visit they met with Zhao Ziyang… General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, to discuss China’s economic reform.

In his meetings with the Chinese leaders when he first visited China in 1980, Friedman strongly emphasised

the importance of unfettered markets, pointing to China’s neighbour, Hong Kong, as a model to be followed by mainland China.

Steven Cheung wrote about  those visits and the extremely sophisticated discussions Friedman had with top Chinese officials and their economic advisers in 1988 with Cheung as his translator.  The only two points they disagreed on was the control  that the Communist Party had over the society  and when  to loosen exchange-rate controls. Cheung said that Zhao’s rationale for delay deserved a good grade in any graduate exam. Following Friedman’s meetings with Zhao, he said the general secretary

was the best economist I have ever met from a socialist country

Subsequent to his 1988 meeting  with Zhao Ziyang,  Milton Friedman wrote him a letter that gave much the same advice that he gave to Pinochet. Friedman also advised the Chinese against following the market socialism model of Yugoslavia  because although it would work for a while before further economic growth required privatisation.

Why is it wrong to have one 45 minute meeting with the tin-pot dictator and yet give seminars and detailed policy advice to a totalitarian dictatorship. Friedman would spend the rest of his life being defamed as an accomplice to evil for meeting Pinochet for 45 minutes. Friedman later noted that he gave communist dictatorships the same advice he gave Pinochet:

It’s curious. I gave exactly the same lectures in China that I gave in Chile. I have had many demonstrations against me for what I said in Chile.

Nobody has made any objections to what I said in China. How come?

If the same standard of evidence is applied to all people who visit dictatorships, Friedman must be a Communist agent or at least a collaborator and responsible for all the horrors that took place in China before and after he visited: the Great Leap Forward and the cultural revolution would be examples. Friedman also visited Yugoslavia: market socialism is his fault as well.

The selectivity of the renegade left on international law

International human rights and humanitarian law is a common port of call for the Left in a great many domestic policy debates. This is despite international law being the product of nation-states pursuing their own interests on the international stage.


International law does not pull states towards compliance when this contrary to their national interests. What international law can achieve is therefore rather limited.

International law is a part of international politics. States enter into treaties and other international legal institutions when doing so serves their interests. Any cooperation among states is a by-product of that rational, self-interested act.

The laws of war are governed by reciprocity, which can produce self-enforcing patterns of behaviour. Eric Posner explains:

The laws of war have a simple economic explanation.

When two states go to war, they foresee an endpoint, which will typically involve certain concessions by one state—the transfer of territory, monetary reparations, etc.

Given that both states will end up at some new equilibrium in terms of territory or wealth or power, it is best for both states if they can reach that equilibrium cheaply rather than expensively.

Before the twentieth century, European states and other major powers would presumptively respect the laws of war in wars among themselves but not wars with tribal groups they aimed to subdue.

In World War II, the rules were respected on the western front but not on the eastern front. On the Eastern front, there were long supply lines and the massive number of prisoners who were taken—both of these factors made it extremely costly to hold POWs in humane conditions. The Nazis also regarded Russians as subhuman, when one side launches a total war, the other side has no reason to respect the laws of war.

Human rights laws attempts to produce public goods and is thus subject to collective action problems.

International law that has not been ratified by domestic political processes has a severe democracy deficit because it is not subject to any kind of democratic electoral accountability.

International law-making itself is generally less transparent than domestic political processes, which further undermines democratic control of its content.

The Left is keen on international law despite it being influenced by nondemocratic and even totalitarian nations.

The UN universal declaration of human rights was watered down on requiring multi-party democracy and on the scope of the definition of genocide to accommodate Stalin’s many crimes in the name of socialism.

If you want to scratch a Leftist to find an economic nationalist, start talking about duties under international economic law.

A legal internationalist on the Left quickly become legal xenophobes when it suits them.

International economic law is adopted by mutual agreement bilaterally or multilaterally on a no vote, no veto basis such as at the WTO. Member countries sign the final agreements as they please. Any new rules have no effect until domestic parliaments ratify the agreement and amend local trade and investment laws.

The Left complains about any lack of transparency in international law and their implications for national sovereignty only when trade treaties are under discussion.

When it comes to international human rights  law or international environmental law, the most obscure or treaties ratified decades ago under different circumstances and often very limited purposes are holy writ.

These international laws  trump national sovereignty without question  and the will of the majority within a country and are open to the most free wheeling interpretations and private enforcement by busy bodies, do-gooders and activists with varying degrees of non-violence.

What is most disappointing about the Left and international law is their attempt to bully other countries over the tax rates.

If Sweden has the right to set high taxes, others have the equally sovereign right to set low taxes.

International law is not a cafeteria where you can pick what suits you. Just as there is international humanitarian law, there is international economic law. One in, all in?!

International economic law makes a far greater contribution to peace than any other part of international law. Free trade creates mutual dependencies among nations. Tariff walls do not promote peace.

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