Everything’s Amazing and Nobody’s Happy

Creative destruction in family spending in the USA

https://twitter.com/VisualEcon/status/508957190129188864/photo/1

The Great Enrichment by household type in the 20th century

https://twitter.com/VisualEcon/status/501347052878823425/photo/1

Cumulative Growth in Average Inflation-Adjusted After-Tax Income by Before-Tax Income Group, 1979 to 2011 with 1% annual adjustment for inflation measurement bias

The Congressional Budget Office did its best to adjust after-tax incomes for inflation between 1979 in 2011. In figure 1, I added an extra 1% inflation adjustment in every year from 1979. 1% per annum is a common estimate of the inflation bias introduced by the inability of most measures of inflation to account for new goods and upgrades in the quality of existing goods to name but a few bias is in the measurement of consumer price inflation.

Figure 1: Cumulative Growth in Average Inflation-Adjusted After-Tax Income, by Before-Tax Income Group, USA, 1979 to 2011, 1% upward annual adjustment for inflation bias for new goods and quality upgrades

image

Source:  derived from Congressional Budget Office, The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2011.

As can be seen from figure 1, with a 1% up left for measurement bias, instead of increases of 48% and 40% in the incomes of the lowest quartile in the middle three quartiles respectively, their after-tax, after inflation incomes about doubled since 1979.

Well done, capitalism. Everyone was on a working class income in the 1970s is now on a middle-class income. Such are the joys of compounding 1% per year over more than 30 years.

image

Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2011.

The original Congressional Budget Office diagram above with the higher income quartiles is presented for comparison. I didn’t present the top quartiles in figure 1 because it made it unreadable because of the dominant influence of the top 1%’s increase in income.

The lesson for the day is small inaccuracies in the measurement of prosperity can over several decades through compounding lead to massive misunderstandings of the increases in prosperity.

Down and out in America

Down and out in America in 2009

via Understanding Poverty in the United States: Poverty USA.

Household living space really is getting bigger

Creative destruction in family spending in the 20th century

Creative destruction in popular consumer goods

Down and out in Australia as measured by consumer durables affordability

Televisions in the good old days

How does the consumer price index cope with the Great Enrichment?

 

via Six Things Technology Has Made Insanely Cheap – Bloomberg Business.

The price of air conditioning in the good old days

Down and out in Australia ain’t what it used to be

Real GDP per Canadian and American aged 15-64, 2013 price level, updated 2005 EKS PPP, detrended, 1970-2013

Figure 1: Real GDP per Canadian and American aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level, updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, detrended 1.9%, 1970-2013, base 1970

image

Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics

A flat line means growth at the trend rate of 1.9%; a falling line means below trend rate of growth ; a rise in line means above trend rate of growth. Canada appears to have mostly been falling behind the USA.

Figure 2: Real GDP per Canadian and American aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level, updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1950-2013

image

Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics.

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