The haves and have-nots in the Middle East
11 Jul 2016 Leave a comment
in development economics Tags: Middle-East politics, Oil prices, resource curse
Peace activists didn’t use the knockdown argument against 2nd Iraq war
10 Jul 2016 Leave a comment
in defence economics, war and peace Tags: anti-war movements, British politics, game theory, Iraq, Iraq war, Middle-East politics, mutually assured destruction, nuclear deterrence, peace movements, Syrian Civil War
This idea of suing ministers for abuse of public office has appeal given the gap between many left-wing policies and sound economics.
https://twitter.com/_PaulMonaghan/status/751525929613156352
Anti-war MPs such as Jeremy Corbyn should be sued for abuse of public office and crimes against peace for not making the knockdown argument against the 2nd war against Iraq.
Instead, Corbyn said he did not like war without explaining how this was different from appeasement and surrender. The easiest way to stop a war is to surrender. The easiest way to start a war is to look weak to an aggressor.
That knockdown argument against the 2nd Iraq war argument was right under the noses of the peace movement. It was yes, Iraq has weapons of mass destruction.
Source: The Secret Casualties of Iraq’s Abandoned Chemical Weapons – The New York Times
It is madness to invade a country that has weapons of mass destruction because they might use them especially if the objective is regime change. Iraq may not have had nuclear weapons, but the potential for Iraq to have biological and chemical weapons secreted away was real.
No one is mad enough to invade North Korea. They will use chemical and biological weapons on Seoul and Tokyo. Syria has chemical and biological weapons to make sure no one invades it.

From what I read, in the current Civil War, Syria uses chemical and biological weapons when it is on the retreat but does not use them to advance and claim new territory.
The reason why the renegade left could not possibly make this obvious argument against the war in Iraq, which was it could be a massive disaster if these chemical and biological weapons were used in desperation, was these peace activists would have to admit nuclear deterrence works. To stop a war by having to admit that weapons of mass destruction deter war was too much for the peace movement to swallow.
An admission that nuclear deterrence works would invalidate the entire political activism of the peace movements in the Cold War. The practical effect of those peace movements was, of course, to undermine the one factor preventing a nuclear war, which was nuclear deterrence.
Since 1945, at least seven or eight wars have occurred where one side had nuclear weapons. In 1973, Israel had nuclear weapons it could have used.

The reason for the non-use of nuclear weapons in those seven or eight wars including the 1973 Yom Kippur War was none were wars of annihilation. Nuclear weapons were more likely to be used if the suspected intention is to invade or occupy a country.
The Yom Kippur war was launched with a plan by President Sadat to reclaim the Sinai then after a few days agreed to an internationally brokered ceasefire. He was intending on reclaiming lost territory, not invading Israel proper continue and risk nuclear retaliation.
Saddam destroyed his nuclear, biological, and weapons but not his weapons development capability soon after he lost the first Iraq war. Saddam played a double strategy: make sure he was not caught with contraband but play a fine game of bluff making everybody think Iraq still has them so he remains a regional strongman.
Saddam could have produced biological and chemical weapons within weeks if he chose to do so but was probably 5 years away from a nuclear weapon. Chilcot’s recent report concluded:
The ingrained belief that Saddam Hussein’s regime retained chemical and biological warfare capabilities, was determined to preserve and if possible enhance its capabilities, including at some point in the future a nuclear capability, and was pursuing an active policy of deception and concealment, had underpinned UK policy towards Iraq since the Gulf Conflict ended in 1991.
The 2nd Iraq war started because Saddam fooled his enemies into thinking he had chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. He certainly had the Japan option. This is having in place the capability to produce weapons of mass destruction such as chemical and biological weapons quickly if he wanted.
A Conversation With Ayaan Hirsi Ali
23 Jun 2016 Leave a comment
in defence economics, liberalism, libertarianism Tags: Age of Enlightenment, free speech, Middle-East politics, political correctness, religious tolerance, war against terror
Tony Benn v Hilary Benn on war votes
22 Jun 2016 Leave a comment
in defence economics, war and peace Tags: just wars, Middle-East politics
Gaza’s border with Egypt? #EndGazaBlockade
04 Jun 2016 Leave a comment
in defence economics, laws of war, war and peace Tags: Egypt, Gaza blockade, Gaza Strip, Israel, Middle-East politics, war against terror
Oxfam inadvertently left the neighbour on the western border of Gaza off the map in its YouTube clip but not on its eastern border. An honest mistake despite the Arab Spring drawing the attention of Egypt and its politics to everyone’s ears including ODA activists.

The Gaza Strip has two borders: both Egypt and Israel restrict trade with the Gaza. Through this honest mistake in map reading, Oxfam blames Gaza’s problems on the Israeli blockade. I am sure it will correct its position once it reads a map such as the one adjacent which is identical to that in its YouTube clip in all but one detail. It has all of the Gaza’s neighbours on it.
We're currently helping ~700k people in #Gaza affected by Israeli blockade: oxf.am/gaza-crisis #EndGazaBlockade https://t.co/4BWdGDqo2F—
Oxfam International (@Oxfam) June 04, 2016
Any blockade of Israel of the Gaza Strip is not grounds to attack Israel because it can always trade across its border with Egypt but Hamas backed the wrong side in the recent Egyptian presidential election.
After the military coup, the military leaders closed 95% of the tunnels that connected Egypt to Gaza. In 2013-2014, Egypt’s military has destroyed most of the 1,200 tunnels which were used to smuggle food, weapons and other goods into Gaza, including flooding them with sewage. Egypt is setting-up a 13-mile buffer zone with the Gaza Strip. The includes clearing 10,000 residents from 800 houses.
Hamas derived 40% of its tax revenue from tariffs on goods that flow through those tunnels with Egypt. One estimate puts the economic losses at nearly a fifth of Gazan GDP.
The Israeli blockade of the Gaza may have something to do with Gaza firing missiles randomly at civilian targets in Israel. Hamas now murders Israeli citizens in the street in knife attacks.
The Gaza strip may have political differences with the Egyptian military dictators but it is not actually committing acts of war against them.
There is no good reason why Oxfam is not protesting against Egypt’s blockade of the Gaza in the same way they protest against breaches of international law involved in the Israeli blockade!Passing references to the Egyptian blockade in press releases is not enough.
No peace convoys attempt to break the Egyptian blockade. Plenty were launched against Israel. One reason is the Egyptians are rough customers. There is rule of law in Israel, none in Egypt.
Drone strikes on terrorist cell phone users by time of day in Yemen
04 Jun 2016 Leave a comment
in defence economics, war and peace Tags: Al-Qaeda, electronic surveillance, ISIS, Middle-East politics, national security, war on terror
I will worry about terrorists in a more serious way when they stop using their mobile phones. I worry even more when they stop blabbing to everyone at the local mosque about their intentions.
Source: Fotini Christia, Leon Yao, Stephen Wittels, and Jure Leskovec | Seven Things Cell Data Shows About Life In Yemen, Foreign Affairs (July 2015).
Sykes-Picot: Would redrawing the borders improve the Middle East?
22 May 2016 Leave a comment
in defence economics, economic history Tags: Middle-East politics
@BillClinton spot-on on #Hamas #warcrimes and rejection of peace
16 May 2016 Leave a comment
in defence economics, economics, laws of war, war and peace Tags: Bill Clinton, Hamas, Middle-East politics
Persian gulf ethnicity map
16 May 2016 Leave a comment
in economics of media and culture, economics of religion Tags: Middle-East politics
Who are the Kurds?
19 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
in defence economics, economics of media and culture Tags: Middle-East politics, The Kurds
Sunni/Shiite divisions
08 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in economics of religion Tags: Middle-East politics
Where Shia and Sunni live in the Middle East
01 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in economics of religion Tags: Middle-East politics
The shifting alliances of the Syrian Civil War
14 Feb 2016 Leave a comment
in defence economics, war and peace Tags: Middle-East politics, Syrian Civil War, war against terror
Who is friends with whom in the Middle East
17 Jan 2016 Leave a comment
in war and peace Tags: Middle-East politics
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