George Stigler vindicated: Learning the Wealth of Nations

Tyler Cowen has drawn attention to a 2011 paper on policy learning in the 1970s and 80s by Francisco J. Buera, Alexander Monge-Narajo, and Giorgio E. Primiceri was published in Econometrica in 2011. Their paper found that:

1. Policymakers have priors about how good the market economy is, and they revise those views — and thus revise policy — as they observe their own growth results and those of their neighbors.

2. A simple learning model predicts about 97% of the policy choices observed in the data.  The model accounts for more than 77% of the observed policy switches over a three-year time window.

3. Evolving beliefs — and not just the fixed demographic characteristics of countries — are critical for understanding policy decisions.

4. It was probably the growth collapse of the late 1970s for interventionist countries which led to a greater reliance on markets.

5. Adjustment toward better-performing policies is often quite slow.  In part this is because policymakers attribute the superior performance of other countries to heterogeneity rather than policy per se.

This record of politicians learning from failure and success at home and abroad is a vindication of George Stigler’s views of the relative unimportance of economists in influencing public policy.

There was no neoliberal conspiracy that captured the hearts and minds of politicians through mass hypnosis in the 1970s and 1980s as both the Left over Left and the Twitter Left like to suggest

The policies of Friedman had to wait, as George Stigler predicted, for a market to develop among interest groups and the voting public. Once that market developed, Milton Friedman, FA Hayek and others looked like leaders of an opinion.

A few years earlier, Friedman and Hayek were just angry men in the wilderness.

The reason for this sudden change in their public profile and purported influence on the shape the course of public policy in th 1970s and 1980s onwards was political parties were yet to conclude that the existing policy regime had failed irretrievably, and that the successes of neighbours on economic reform might be worth imitating locally.

Once politicians, the voting public and interest groups concluded that new solutions are needed, just as Stigler predicted, the ideas for reform been around for a long time came to the front.

via http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/11/learning-the-wealth-of-nations.html

Fact check: conspiracy theories aren’t just for conservatives

Respondents were asked whether they agreed with four statements:

  • “Much of our lives are being controlled by plots hatched in secret places,”
  • “Even though we live in a democracy, a few people will always run things anyway,”
  • “The people who really ‘run’ the country are not known to the voters.”
  • “Big events like wars, the current recession, and the outcomes of elections are controlled by small groups of people who are working in secret against the rest of us.”

Source: monkey cage

American conservatives distrust science in part because they identify it with the regulatory state. When science means nuclear weapons, innovation and winning the space race, conservatives love it.  When they associate science with the EPA, regulation, and global institutions, they hate it.

Just as climate science is unpalatable for the Right, the Left is uncomfortable with, for example, genetic modification and nuclear power. Research into risks and benefits of these technologies are met with suspicion by the Left.

I find it bizarre the right wing politics is considered more conspiratorial than the left wing – a left-wing that is currently obsessed with the comings and goings of the top 1%.

A gentleman by the name of Karl Marx had a conspiracy theory of history, that the bosses were conspiring against the workers, there is a ruling class pulling the strings from behind the scenes, and there is an inherent inequality of bargaining power between workers and employers because the bosses plot to keep wages down.

It should be mentioned in this connection that Karl Marx himself was one of the first to emphasize the importance, for the social sciences, of these unintended consequences.

In his more mature utterances, he says that we are all caught in the net of the social system. The capitalist is not a demoniac conspirator, but a man who is forced by circumstances to act as he does; he is no more responsible for the state of affairs than is the proletarian.

This view of Marx’s has been abandoned – perhaps for propagandist reasons, perhaps because people did not understand it – and a Vulgar Marxist Conspiracy theory has very largely replaced it. It is a come-down – the come-down from Marx to Goebbels.

But it is clear that the adoption of the conspiracy theory can hardly be avoided by those who believe that they know how to make heaven on earth. The only explanation for their failure to produce this heaven is the malevolence of the devil who has a vested interest in hell.

Karl Popper

Don’t let me start on how the Left over Left goes on about neoliberal conspiracy with Hayek and Friedman ruling the roost through the truly obscure Mont Pelerin Society.

bookjacketCover: The Road from Mont Pèlerin in HARDCOVER

The IMF, World Trade Organisation and trade negotiations are riddled with conspiracies if I am to believe my friends in the  Left over Left.

Mention multinational corporations to a member of the Left of good standing and conspiracy theories pour fourth.

It would be unfair to bring up GMOs to remind the left of how anti-science it is. Don’t kick people when they’re down. The whole point of the precautionary principle is to allow the Left to reject good science.

At bottom, what call the barricades works if it’s not sexed-up with a conspiracy theory?

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