The prediction market speaks on the Republican presidential primaries
16 Jan 2016 Leave a comment
in financial economics, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: 2016 presidential election, prediction markets
The more accurate opinion polling question
19 Sep 2014 Leave a comment
in election campaigns, entrepreneurship, market efficiency Tags: opinion polls, prediction markets
“Regardless of whom they supported, which candidate did people expect to win? Americans consistently, and correctly, said that they thought Mr. Bush would.
A version of that question has produced similarly telling results throughout much of modern polling history, according to a new academic study.
Over the last 60 years, poll questions that asked people which candidate they expected to win have been a better guide to the outcome of the presidential race than questions asking people whom they planned to vote for, the study found.”
Via http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/us/politics/a-better-poll-question-to-predict-the-election.html
How Did the Prediction Markets Do?
26 Jun 2014 Leave a comment
in market efficiency, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: prediction markets
Below is a map showing the results of the 2012 US presidental elections and the map of prediction market forecasts on October 1st.
Florida had not been called to Obama when the map was made.
via Thinking on the Margin: How Did the Prediction Markets Do?.
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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