W.S. Jevons and peak coal

HT: The Oildrum

In The Coal Question from 1865, William Stanley Jevons examined for how long British prosperity could rely on cheap supplies of coal. His estimate was that within a hundred years, or perhaps one or two generations, coal production would decline due to increases in the cost of mining.

Picture of jevons.jpg

Given that coal was a non-renewable energy resource, Jevons raised the question

Are we wise in allowing the commerce of this country to rise beyond the point at which we can long maintain it?

His central thesis was that the UK’s economic prosperity was transitory given the finite nature of its primary energy resource, which was coal.

I must point out the painful fact that such a rate of growth will before long render our consumption of coal comparable with the total supply. In the increasing depth and difficulty of coal mining we shall meet that vague, but inevitable boundary that will stop our progress.

Although British coal production peaked in 1913, plainly Jevons got peak coal wrong in terms of limiting economic growth and this Industrial Revolution.

Jevons failed to appreciate that as the price of an energy source rises, entrepreneurs have a growing incentive to invent, develop, and produce alternatives, use coal more efficiently and develop technologies that cut the cost of discovering and mining resources.

W. S. Jevons (1865) on Wind power — MasterResource

1) wind power is not new.

2) wind power is intermittent and unsuitable for modern work:

The first great requisite of motive power is, that it shall be wholly at our command, to be exerted when, and where, and in what degree we desire. The wind, for instance, as a direct motive power, is wholly inapplicable to a system of machine labour, for during a calm season the whole business of the country would be thrown out of gear (p. 122).

3) wind power is land constrained:

No possible concentration of windmills … would supply the force required in large factories or iron works. An ordinary windmill has the power of about thirty-four men, or at most seven horses. Many ordinary factories would therefore require ten windmills to drive them, and the great Dowlais Ironworks, employing a total engine power of 7,308 horses, would require no less than 1,000 large windmills! (p. 123)

4) wind power for transportation did not work:

Richard Lovell Edgeworth spent forty years’ labour in trying to bring wind carriages into use. But no ingenuity could prevent [wind carriages] from being uncertain; and their rapidity with a strong breeze was such, that … ‘they seemed to fly, rather than roll along the ground.’ Such rapidity not under full control must be in the highest degree dangerous (p. 126).

via W. S. Jevons (1865) on Windpower (Memo to Obama, Part I) — MasterResource.

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