In mid-April, The Treasury released some economic scenarios for how things might play out as the country and economy work through – and perhaps beyond – Covid-19. I wrote about that document here. The focus of those scenarios was on peak levels of (for example) unemployment, and on the multi-year path back to full employment. It was a quite limited exercise – although valuable for what it was – in that all the variation across the scenarios was about the degree of government (a) restrictions, and (b) stimulus.
A day or two later, the Reserve Bank appeared before the Epidemic Response Committee and they gave the Committee some numbers for the estimated GDP losses at each level in the government’s (then) schema of alert levels – this was before the current “Level 3” rules were adopted, let alone the new (“Level 2”) ones to be announced today. The…
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Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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