Does the NZ Superannuation Fund recover the deadweight cost of the taxes that funded it?

The $30 billion New Zealand Superannuation Fund is the best performing sovereign wealth fund over the past five years, generating returns of more than 17 per cent a year.

Those returns easily beat all other sovereign wealth funds that publish their figures, according to a global study by JP Morgan. In the last three years alone, the fund returned an average of 21 per cent a year.

Good thing to do considering that the default deadweight cost of taxation is put by that Treasury to be 20%:

As a general rule, deadweight losses should be included if they are of sufficient size relative to the overall costs and benefits of the proposal that they are capable of altering the decision as to whether or not to proceed with the proposal.

Having said this, deadweight losses are notoriously difficult to quantify. Estimates vary from 14% up to 50% of the revenue collected.

Treasury suggests a rate of 20% as a default deadweight loss value in the absence of an alternative evidence based value. Thus public expenditures should be multiplied by a factor of 1.2 prior to discounting to incorporate the effects of deadweight loss.

This deadweight cost of taxation includes funds contributed to New Zealand government owned investment funds. In a speech last week, the Super Fund chairman Gavin Walker warned that the recent high returns were unlikely to continue in the long-term:

The last few years are likely to have been among the best years the fund will experience for some time,” he said. “On average and over the long-term we expect to earn the rather less exciting figure of 8 per cent [per annum] – but which will still provide a handsome return to New Zealander stakeholders.

The New Zealand Superannuation Fund must beat the market every single year to make up for the deadweight cost of its funding, the usual interest rate on borrowed funds, a premium for the investment risk added to the Crown’s portfolio and the cost to New Zealand’s growth rate of higher than otherwise taxes on income, entrepreneurship and investment.

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