David Cameron’s sensational win today was certainly predicted by very few (should’ve bet on it). The comparison everyone is making is with 1992. It is certainly one I think the Conservatives were making themselves. When Mrs Thatcher was defenestrated in 1990, she was deeply unpopular. Tory canvassers called it the ‘that bloody woman’ factor. I would vote Tory, they heard, if it wasn’t for TBW. In retrospect, ditching Thatcher, in modern politico-speak , helped detoxify the Conservatives.
Nonetheless, as the campaign opened, the opinion polls gave Neil Kinnock’s Labour a a six point lead. Come polling day, the opinion polls had become more equivocal. However, on the night, the BBC exit poll predicted a hung parliament. In the event, John Major’s Conservatives polled more votes than any Conservative government in history.
There a several explanations that could be advanced. One was, surely, the fact that John Major was not Margaret Thatcher…
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