Crystal-ball gazing: Tertiary ed edition

Eric Crampton's avatarThe Sand Pit

Over the weekend, I contributed to a panel session run at the Tertiary Education Union’s conference. My notes are copied below.

Notes for address to the Tertiary Education Union’s conference, Voices from Tertiary Education, 23 July 2016.

Dr Eric Crampton, Head of Research, The New Zealand Initiative

Check against delivery.

I’d like to thank the TEU for inviting me onto today’s panel. I’m sometimes a token free-market diversity addendum to these kinds of panels, but the TEU has done a great job in having a really diverse set of commenters on our panel’s assigned topic, “A look at the educational needs of society and the economy”. I thank the organisers for that.

I’ll start with a bit of background: I served as lecturer and senior lecturer in the Economics Department at the University of Canterbury from 2003 through 2014 before moving to Wellington to serve as Head of…

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Iranian Police Confiscate 100,000 Satellite Dishes To Protect Public Morality

jonathanturley's avatarJONATHAN TURLEY

160px-SatelliteDishes-5375The infamous Iranian Basij militia cracked down on the use of satellite dishes by confiscating 100,000 dishes in Tehran.  Iranian prosecutors insisted that dishes expose families to UnIslamic influences and are “morally damaging.”  The dishes were destroyed in a triumphant ceremony before General Mohammad Reza Naghdi, head of Iran’s Basij militia.  Most people view Naghdi’s crackdown as a pathetic and laughable example of religious orthodoxy that still strangles Iranian society.  However, Naghdi heralded the latest achievement of his extremist forces.

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When will @AustralianLabor admit it lost a winnable election @Mark_Graph

Source: Mark the Ballot: Aggregated polling update.

GREASE- You’re the one that I want

Why women live longer than men.

https://twitter.com/AwardsDarwin/status/757295500307628032

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Labour on New Zealand’s economy

Michael Reddell's avatarcroaking cassandra

It is probably only about 14 months until the next election.  We have a government that has presided over eight pretty-mediocre years of economic performance –  not all of it their fault, as there are global factors at work –  with no real idea what they should or could do to reverse New Zealand’s decades of staggering relative economic decline.  Often enough, it seems that the current government doesn’t even really care, so long as they can successfully persuade enough of the public that things aren’t too bad, or (worse) that our problems are actually marks of some sort of success.

Of course, our key economic agencies –  Treasury, MBIE, and the Productivity Commission –  show no real sign of offering the sort of quality advice that takes seriously the specifics of New Zealand’s situation and offers solutions that might make a material difference.  I’m not really sure why.  For them individually …

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A far right populist contradicts the median voter theorem

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Hanson, Trump, UKIP, Alternative for Germany, Marine Le Pen, and the anti-immigration but pro-welfare state populist parties in northern Europe are all smeared by the media as far right parties but also are described as right-wing populists. Media bias is still constrained by the median voter theorem.

You cannot be on the far right but win lots of votes because the extremes of the political spectrum account for few votes. What do you think left-wingers stay within the Labour Party despite wanting its leader to be tried for war crimes.

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Even in proportional representation systems, few far right and far left party set up on their own two feet and survive because of thresholds to win seats. There are Communist parties in European parliaments but their representation is small except for the Bundestag.

You cannot get into the 2nd round of the French presidential election, come 2nd in 40 British Labour Party seats, win the safest Labour Party seats in Queensland, and be attacked from Ted Cruz from the right and still be a far right winger.

All right-wing populist parties combine that heady brew of nationalism,opposition to immigration and free trade, and staunch support of the welfare state. Not surprisingly, something like 40% of their votes come from the traditional labour parties and social democratic parties.

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Source: EUROPP – The ‘reluctant radicals’ who offer conditional support to the far-right are key to understanding the success of right-wing populist parties in European elections.

Countering their appeal to the electorate cannot start with saying that anyone who votes for them is weird because the secret ballot allow secret malice.

The left is surprisingly bad at playing catch-up in identity politics. As one UKIP supporter said, I am a white working class Englishmen not on the benefit so Labour does not speak for me.

An inquiry established by Labour’s former policy chief, Jon Cruddas, MP found that Labour needs to

“stop patronising socially conservative Ukip voters and recognise the ways in which Ukip appeals to former Labour voters”, the report says, adding: “Labour is becoming a toxic brand. It is perceived by voters as a party that supports an ‘open door’ approach to immigration, lacks credibility on the economy, and is a ‘soft touch’ on welfare spending.”

At present, the report argues, Labour is “largely a party of progressive, social liberals who value principles such as equality, sustainability, and social justice.

It is losing connection with large parts of the voter population who are either pragmatists in their voting habits or social conservatives who value family, work, fairness and their country.” It adds: “Labour is becoming dangerously out of touch with the electorate and … unwilling to acknowledge this growing estrangement.”

Mallard makes it easier for Bishop in Hutt

homepaddock's avatarHomepaddock

POLITIK reports Hutt South MP Trevor Mallard won’t contest his electorate at the next election but will seek a list seat:

He says he is doing this because Labour will nominate him as Speaker and he told them he had come to the view that it is very hard to be both an effective electorate MP and chair the house in an unbiased manner.

And he says the move will help the party with its process of renewal by bringing in a new MP.

That means that he is not expecting Leader Andrew Little  who does not have an electorate, to stand in the seat.

Labour’s Deputy Leader Annette King appeared to confirm this last night when she told POLITIK that she did not expect Mr Little to stand in any seat.

A leader’s workload is one reason for Little to continue to be a list MP. But that also makes…

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The Darwin Awards explained

https://twitter.com/AwardsDarwin/status/757337362196291590

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Al Green – Let’s Stay Together (1972)

Applications Using Elasticity

Ronald Coase and the Coase Theorem

rousseau1214's avatarGedanken zur Geschichte

coase_zzz_anim

The Coase Theorem is an odd relic in the field of economics. When I first saw it in my intro-to-micro class, I thought it was a bit silly. For those that don’t know, the Coase Theorem basically says that given a set of assumptions (perfect competition, no transaction costs, no income effects, etc..), a market under the influence of externalities will maximize the value of production regardless of how property rights are assigned among the market participants*.

Like most models in your into-to-micro class, the assumptions are pretty ridiculous and simply don’t hold in any real world setting. But that’s my inner scientific realist speaking. Many economics professors will tell you that the primary purpose of a basic supply-and-demand model is to teach the intuition behind economic theory – to demonstrate how certain variables (in this case price and quantity) move together. Real world stuff just complicates the picture, you know, the typical instrumentalist creed. However, I still couldn’t square…

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