party in the street: theory is put to the test

orgtheory.net

The main argument of Party in the Street is that the nature of partisanship affects the level of protest. If your movement thinks it is part of/opposed to a party, then protest will track who is in power (e.g., if your side wins an election, you mellow out). If the movement rejects the party system, then mobilization will be independent of election outcomes.

Well, we have a new data point. The Trump administration has declared a buildup of troops in Afghanistan. The party in power is Republican and the antiwar movement is tied to the Democratic party. The prediction: we should see an increase in antiwar protest.

Now, there is a mediating factor. The Afghanistan war has been the more popular part of the War on Terror. While hard core antiwar groups opposed interventions in both Iraq and Afghanistan, the public (and the Democratic party) has been more supportive of…

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