There was a thoughtful short piece in the BNZ’s weekly commentary yesterday on economic prospects for the next few years. Perhaps there are others around that I missed – I only heard of this one when my son drew this report of it to my attention
BNZ’s head of research Stephen Toplis is warning that economic activity won’t return to pre-crisis levels till some time in 2023, while unemployment might not get back below 5% before 2025.
I gulped. I hadn’t quite thought about it in those specific terms. But as I did, I realised it probably wasn’t an implausible story (as Toplis notes in his piece, and as everyone must, precise numbers/forecasts have little meaning at present; the issue is more about broad orders of magnitude and the nature of the supporting story).
Toplis’s own short-term story seemed, if anything, insufficiently bleak, although he may just have been making…
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Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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