Utopia, you are standing in it!

 I am still reading this much discussed research by Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein where they estimate the impact of Obama plan (Econbrowser has a nice graph which explains the impact in a nutshell). Both head Council of Economic Advisors of President elect Obama, so it is a must read. Another thing to read is CBO’s estimate of the US economy (I will try and do a comparison later on; for insights read Krugman’sblog).

Coming back to Romer/Bernstein estimation, NYTpoints:

Christina Romer, whom Mr. Obama has designated to be his chief economist, concluded in research she helped write in 1994 that interest-rate policy is the most powerful force in economic recoveries and that fiscal stimulus generally acts too slowly to be of much help in pulling the economy out of recessions, though associates said she now supports a big stimulus package if policy…

I came across this paper by Lee Ohanian of Minneapolis Fed , who has done some great work on  Great Depression. The paper is a review of this book – The Defining Moment (free to download chapetrwise)-  written on Great Depression by various economists and edited by Michael D. Bordo, Claudia Goldin, and Eugene N. White.

The abstract of the paper is quite interesting and apt for today’s times:

This paper reviews The Defining Moment, edited by Michael D. Bordo, Claudia Goldin, and Eugene N. White. The volume studies how the Great Depression changed government policies, including changes in monetary policy, fiscal policy, banking policy, agricultural policy, social insurance, and international economic policy.

I argue that a theory of policy evolution is required to answer how the Great Depression affected these policies. In the absence of this theory, the contributors provide insight into the question by showing how policies changed sharply…

There is an intriguing paper by Douglas Irvin on the topic. Voxeu has a nice summary (one of the best things to have happened on web for economics students- voxeu. Most economists use it to summarise key papers/thoughts/ideas etc)).

He says:

South Korea had its assembly election on 15 April, with various covid-19 precautions in place. The Democratic Party of President Moon Jae-in (elected in 2017) won a majority of seats.

As discussed previously at F&V, the electoral system was changed from mixed-member majoritarian (MMM) to, at least partially, mixed-member proportional (MMP) prior to this election. It is only partially MMP not mainly because the number of compensatory list seats is so small (30 out of 300 total), but because there remain 17 seats that are, apparently, allocated in parallel (i.e., as if it were MMM).

There was some discussion in various media accounts (and in the previous thread) of the major parties setting up “satellite” parties to “game” the MMP aspect of the system. Under such a situation, a big party will contest the nominal tier seats and use a separate list to attract list votes and seats. By not…

I’ve mentioned in posts over the last few days The Treasury’s estimate that the current “Level 4” restrictions will have reduced GDP by about 40 per cent relative to normal levels and the Reserve Bank’s estimate of a 35 per cent reduction.    Both estimates seem a lot more realistic than some of the private sector estimates that were still doing the rounds early in the week.  But I still reckon the Reserve Bank estimate, in particular, is almost certainly too low –  especially if we are concerned, as we should be, with the “true” reduction in the volume of economic activity, not with what SNZ may initially report (accurate measurement is going to be a challenge).

What makes me sceptical?  Well, there is the fact that our partial lockdown seems to be more restrictive, particularly (but not exclusively) on economic dimensions, than those in many other countries.  Thus ANZ…

Coverage in Searchlight (May 2000)

On 11 April 2000, Mr Justice Gray found in favour of Penguin Books, who had been sued for libel by David Irving after the publication of Deborah Lipstadt’s Denying the Holocaust, which stated:

Irving is one of the most dangerous spokespersons for Holocaust denial. Familiar with historical evidence, he bends it until it conforms with his ideological leanings and political agenda. A man who is convinced that Britain’s great decline was accelerated by its decision to go to war with Germany, he is most facile at taking accurate information and shaping it to confirm his conclusions. A review of his recent book, Churchill’s War, which appeared in New York Review of Books, accurately analysed his practice of applying a double standard to evidence. He demands “absolute documentary proof” when it comes to proving the Germans guilty, but he relies on highly circumstantial evidence to…

Adding wind and solar capacity is a bit like pushing on string; the outcome never matches the effort applied.

Across the globe, it’s true to say that there has been a massive expansion in wind and solar power capacity. However, as Rafe Champion points out below, there’s a yawning gulf between the notional capacity of the world’s wind and solar plants and what they actually deliver.

And, of course, where output from the former depends upon ‘just right breezes’ and output from the latter’s determined by the time of day (eg, there’s never much happening at midnight) predicting just when that capacity might be delivered makes betting the house on roulette seem like a canny investment.

Windpower advocates lying with statistics
Catallaxy Files
Rafe Champion
9 April 2020

Windpower Roundup reports.

Roughly 176GW of new renewable energy capacity was added last year, accounting for 72% of global power growth.

The coronavirus pandemic is, of course, first and foremost a social crisis. It is testing the limits of the NHS, bringing out the best in our doctors, nurses and carers, and many others on whom we all rely. But it is also a huge challenge for policymakers who are trying to protect businesses, jobs and incomes, so that the economy can quickly reboot once the lockdown is lifted. And while the saving of lives is rightly the priority, the extent and duration of the economic disruption could also have significant impacts on our health.

Fortunately, history does provide a few pointers. Perhaps the least surprising conclusion is that vicious diseases cannot be allowed to run unchecked. One particularly grim study of the longer-term economic consequences of 15 pandemics, all the way back to the Black Death in the 14th century, found that the fallout persisted for as long as 40…

With orbit periods ranging from only 2-12 days, this must be one of the most compact multi-planet systems found so far.

Almost visible to the naked eye in the Draco constellation, the star HD 158259 has been observed for the last seven years by astronomers using the SOPHIE spectrograph, reports Phys.org.

This instrument, installed at the Haute-Provence Observatory in the South of France, acquired 300 measurements of the star.

The analysis of the data which was done by an international team led by researchers from the University of Geneva (UNIGE), has resulted in the discovery that HD 158259 has six planetary companions: a “super-Earth” and five “mini-Neptunes.”

These planets display an exceptionally regular spacing, which hints at how the system may have formed.

by Gavin Wright (Stanford University)

This research was presented as the Tawney Lecture at the EHS Annual Conference in 2019.

It will also appear in the Economic History Review later this year.

Coloured lithograph of slaves picking cotton. Fort Sumter Museum Charleston. Available at Flickr.

My Tawney lecture reassessed the relationship between slavery and industrial capitalism in both Britain and the United States.  The thesis expounded by Eric Williams held that slavery and the slave trade were vital for the expansion of British industry and commerce during the 18^th century but were no longer needed by the 19^th.  My lecture confirmed both parts of the Williams thesis:  the 18^th-century Atlantic economy was dominated by sugar, which required slave labor; but after 1815, British manufactured goods found diverse new international markets that did not need captive colonial buyers, naval protection, or slavery.  Long-distance trade became…

by Jane Whittle (University of Exeter) and Mark Hailwood (University of Bristol)

This article is published by The Economic History Review, and it is available on the EHS website.

Here are ten reasons to know more about women’s work and read our article on ‘The gender division of labour in early modern England’. We have collected evidence about work tasks in order to quantify the differences between women’s and men’s work in the period from 1500-1700. This research allows us to dispel some common misconceptions.

1. Men did most of the work didn’t they? This is unlikely, when both paid and unpaid work are counted, modern time-use studies show that women do the majority of work – 55% of rural areas of developing countries and 51% in modern industrial countries (UN Human Development report 1995). There is no reason why the pattern would have been markedly different in…

by Victoria Baranov (University of Melbourne), Ralph De Haas (EBRD, CEPR, and Tilburg University) and Pauline Grosjean (University of New South Wales). More information on the authors below.

The content of this article was originally published on VOX and has been published here with the authors’ consent.

Mitchell, T 1834, To the Right Honorable Edward Geoffrey Smith Stanley this map of the Colony of New South Wales, ca. 1:540 000, National Library of Australia. Available here.

Why are men three times as likely than women to die from suicide? And why do many unemployed men refuse to apply for jobs that are typically done by women? This column argues that a better understanding of masculinity norms – the rules and standards that guide and constrain men’s behavior in society – can help answer important questions like these. We present evidence from Australia on how historical circumstances have instilled strong…