If our friends on the left are to be believed, trade liberalisation is bad unless it involves Cuba, Vietnam, Iraq and other heroes of the anti-west left. The anti-west left is different from the antifascist left and is sometimes known as the renegade left or regressive left.
Access to world markets, and the removal of trade sanctions and travel and investment restrictions are all to the benefit of the Vietnamese, Iraqi and Cuban people in the street and not just their elites in the eyes of the anti-west left. There you have: trade liberalisation is bad because reduced tariffs at home and abroad hurts ordinary people; trade sanctions are bad because they hurt ordinary people by denying them access to import from and exporting into world markets.
Trade sanctions against Iraq were to terrible for the Iraqi people. Removing those trade sanctions and similar sanctions on Cuba and Vietnam, which expanded their ability to export and import was essential to improving the welfare of Iraqis, Cubans and Vietnamese respectively. Two of these three countries are not a democracy with the guarantees elections have in ensuring broad-based benefits but nonetheless greater trade liberalisation was seen as to the advantage of the ordinary people of those dictatorships by the Left.
Likewise boycotting, disinvesting and sanctions on Israel will change the Israeli policy because the Israeli people. The logic here is that trade and investment is wealth enhancing, so restricting trade punishes Israelis.
A comprehensive study by Kim Elliott, Jeffrey Schott, and Gary Hufbauer looked at whether sanction works. Do they accomplish the goals identified by U.S. policy-makers such as ending apartheid or undermining Libya’s support of terrorism? The study estimated they have succeeded 23 percent of the time. But of course as Kaempfer and Lowenberg say
Sanctions may be imposed not to bring about maximum economic damage to the target, but for expressive or demonstrative purposes. Moreover, the political effects of sanctions on the target nation are sometimes perverse, generating increased levels of political resistance to the sanctioners’ demands.
It is also that case that Kaempfer, Lowenberg and Mertens (2001) found that sanctions generate rents that can be appropriated by a dictator and his cronies and supporters such as those who were close to Saddam. The losses from the sanctions were borne by those who are opposed to the regime. This weakens their capacity to oppose it, leading to the further entrenchment in power of the dictator and his supporters. As Wintrobe explains:
In the public choice approach, sanctions work through their impact on the relative power of interest groups in the target country. An important implication of this approach is that sanctions only work if there is a relatively well organized interest group whose political effectiveness can be enhanced as a consequence of the sanctions.
What is reasonably clear from the literature on the economics of trade sanctions is at ordinary people in both dictatorships and democracies suffer from trade sanctions the most. The political elite can shift the costs of the trade and investment sanctions onto the disenfranchised within their country. Those with political connections have a better chance of minimising the costs and profiting from any windfall rents:
as Galtung (1967) observes, sanctions can be counterproductive by giving rise to a new elite in the target nation that benefits from international isolation. For example, Selden (1999) notes that, in the long run, sanctions often foster the development of domestic industries in the target country, thus reducing the target’s dependence on the outside world and the ability of sanctioners to influence the target’s behaviour through economic coercion…
Damrosch (1993, p. 299) contends that sanctions will almost inevitably benefit an autocratic regime because the regime will always be in a better position than the civilian population to control external transactions and the internal economy. In Damrosch’s view, the creation and enrichment of a criminal class that profiteers from trading bootleg or scarce goods means that even the most skilfully targeted sanctions will serve only to entrench the power of the ruling elite
One of the hopefully unintended consequences of trade and investment sanctions is disinvestment entrenches the position of capitalists in the sanctioned country and raises the rate of return on the capital in the targeted country as Kaempfer and Lowenberg again found:
…disinvestment sanctions can have the perverse effect of enhancing the target country’s ability to pursue its objectionable behaviour. The existing foreign capital stock – the physical plant and capacity previously owned by foreigners – is purchased by domestic capital owners at reduced prices, causing yields to rise and prompting target-country residents to sell foreign assets and substitute into domestic assets with higher rates of return.
The increase in the rate of return due to the acquisition of productive assets at fire-sale prices translates into a windfall gain to domestic capital owners, which increases the tax base available to the government to finance its policies, including those that attracted the sanctions in the first place
So far so good in terms of international economics of the renegade left until we start considering their attitude to trade agreement such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The logic of BDS is swept aside as is the rationale for opposing trade sanctions against Iraq, Cuba and Vietnam. Now enhanced opportunities for trade and investment is not in the interests of ordinary people even if they are Vietnamese – the biggest winner from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Now increased opportunities to export are a bad thing. Investor state dispute settlement procedures, which were initially proposed by the governments of poor countries such as in South America, which offer a relief to foreign investors against expropriation and discrimination become a bad thing. Safeguards against corrupt and venial developing country politicians, bureaucrats and courts expropriating foreign investors are a bad thing even if you are talking about Vietnam or Cuba.
The Greens are the first to call for trade sanctions as an alternative to military intervention. Trade sanctions on the grounds of human rights violations as far back apartheid in South Africa make no sense unless the reduced access to world markets imposes a cost on a country. In the case of a democracy like Israel, trade sanctions must hurt the man in the street otherwise the sanctions will not shift electoral fortunes.
The last line of defence of the trade sanctions work but trade liberalisation is bad line of thought is most of the profits and losses of both trade sanctions and trade liberalisations fall on the elite. It is a trickle up argument.
The first flow in that argument is the sanctions against apartheid in South Africa and Rhodesia. They were aimed at ordinary people such as those that play and watch cricket, rugby and other sports. The idea is to encourage people to change their political views and votes if they want access to global sport.
Both Rhodesia and South Africa were democracies for whites. White settler politics in Rhodesia was particularly colourful. It was a brave man to make any statement that put him at the risk of being overtaken on his right in white settler politics.
The bigger problem for the trade sanctions are good, trade liberalisation is bad argument comes from the interest group based explanations of industrialisation in Japan and the East Asian Tigers. Economic development often comes to developing countries through export based industrialisation.
The reason that export based industrialisation is a common path to economic development for poor countries is it does not threaten the existing configuration of special interests. It does not involve deregulating any domestic industry. The export industries do not threaten the business interests and profits of existing rent seekers and ruling elites.
Post-war trade liberalisation and tariff cuts gave Korean and the other East Asian Tigers much greater access to major export markets. This allowed export production to expand without limit. This expansion did not threaten local special interests because they kept their privileges and barriers to entry into the domestic markets.
Incumbent suppliers and workers are less likely to be hurt by the adoption of more efficient technologies because output expands greatly through exporting. If a market is small and limited to one country, and output cannot be increased without price cuts, greater production efficiency from a new technology can lead to less employment and business closures. Industry insiders may oppose this. Exporting reduce the incentives for insiders to block more efficient technologies (Parente and Prescott 2005; Holmes and Schmitz 1995; Olson 1982). Distributional coalitions slow down a society’s capacity to adopt new technologies and to reallocate resources in response to changing conditions and thereby reduce the rate of economic growth.
Many other under-developed nations did not grow because institutional sclerosis locked them into yesterday’s technologies and industries with low growth and major declines in relative incomes (Olson 1982, 1984; Heckelman 2007; Bischoff 2007). A growing accumulation of distributional coalitions – institutional sclerosis – slowed down the capacity of these under-developed countries to adopt new technologies and reallocate resources across firms and industries in response to changing conditions and new opportunities (Olson 1982, 1984; Acemoglu and Robinson 2005).
Mancur Olson argued that over time, stable societies accumulate “distributional coalitions,” narrow special-interest organizations that burden the economy with overregulation and opaque forms of wealth redistribution.
Latin America is a good example of stagnation after initial prosperity because of the accumulation of barriers to efficient production. Latin America has many more international and domestic barriers to competition than do Western and the successful East Asian countries (Cole et al. 2005).
Institutional reforms and imported new technologies increased employment and incomes through this explosion in exporting in Japan and the newly industrialised countries in East Asia. This allowed the losers from the economic changes to be compensated directly or with new opportunities in the export sectors (Parente and Prescott 1999, 2005; Olson 1982, 1984; Acemoglu and Robinson 2005).
The argument that trade sanctions are good while trade liberalisation is bad simply does not stand up against the economic history of trade sanctions, trade liberalisation and export-led industrialisation. If they did, the economic histories of Latin America and East Asia would swap. Latin America took the path of import substitution and crony capitalism while East Asia chose export led industrialisation, low taxes and the market economy.
1% to 1.5% is the usual estimate of bias in the consumer price index because of the introduction of new groups and quality upgrades in existing goods. I have adjusted the consumer price index inflation rate back to 1970 in New Zealand by 1.5% to see how long ago prices became stable. I know this is a rough adjustment, but it is still informative. If anything, the bias in the consumer price index from new goods and product upgrades is increasing rather than decreasing.
Prices have been stable or falling in New Zealand’s for at least three years now once bias in the consumer price index is taken into account. Despite this deflation, the economy seems to be getting along pretty well. There is also a long period of more or less stable prices in the 1990s once bias is taken into account in the measurement of consumer prices by the Statistics New Zealand.
Workplace safety arises as a by-product of economic growth. Risks in the workplace and outside that would not countenance now were routine a few decades ago because the risk of eliminating them was high.
The soon to take effect New Zealand health workplace safety legislation makes it much more difficult to have independent directors and part-time directors of companies. That will both weaken the ability of shareholders to prevent insider control as well as introduce a diversity of views onto boards of directors.
The resignation of Sir Peter Jackson is an example of this. Talented entrepreneurs are no longer able to run large numbers by sitting on the board and intervening on a management by exception basis.
Rupert Murdoch as an example of an executive able to run a global empire. He would ring up the chief executives of his subsidiaries for one minute to month. If they are talking about something interesting, he would listen for longer. He was the ultimate one-minute manager who built a global empire around his supreme entrepreneurial talent.
The new legislation on workplace safety will increase the cost of building a successful business from the ground up. Entrepreneurs will not be able to quickly intervene in the company and dismiss underperforming executives who look after things while they are away. This is because they are not on the Board of Directors.
One constraint on the growth of any firm is entrepreneurs have a limited span of control (Coase 1937; Williamson 1967, Lucas 1978; Oi 1983a, 1983b). A span of control is the number of subordinates that an individual supervisor has to control and lead either directly or through a hierarchical managerial chain (Fox 2009). There are only so many tasks that even the most able of entrepreneurs can carry out in one day. Over-stretched spans of control motivate entrepreneurs to hire professional managers and delegate to them a wide range of decision-making rights over the firms they own (Williamson 1975; Foss, Foss and Klein 2008).
Entrepreneurs and the professional managers they hired to assist them must divide their respective time between monitoring employees, identifying new business opportunities, forecasting buyer demand and running the other aspects of their business (Lucas, 1978; Oi 1983, 1983b, 1988; Foss, Foss, and Klein 2008). The larger is the firm, the more employees there are for the entrepreneur to direct, monitor and reward. These costs of directing and monitoring employees will increase with the size of the firm and larger firms will encounter information problems not present in smaller firms (Alchian and Demsetz 1972; Stigler 1962)
The time of the more talented entrepreneurs is more valuable because they had the superior managerial skills and entrepreneurial alertness to make their firms large in the first place and remain deft enough to survive in competition. Time spent on the supervision of employees is time that is spent away from other uses of the talents that got these more able entrepreneurs to the top and keeps them there (Williamson 1967; Lucas 1978; Oi 1983b, 1988, 1990; Idson and Oi 1999; Black et al 1999).
Firms in the same industry tend to exhibit systematic differences in their organization of production and the structure of their workforces because entrepreneurial ability is the specific and scarce production input that limits the size of a firm (Lucas, 1978; Oi 1983b). The less able entrepreneurs tend to run the smaller firms while the better entrepreneurs tend to lead both the currently large firms and the smaller firms that are growing at the expense of market rivals (Lucas 1978, Oi 1983b; Stigler 1958; Alchian 1950).
There has been a tremendous improvement in the working conditions over the 20th century. The main driver was the incentive and employers to provide safe workplaces as real wages grew. Adam Smith noted that more dangerous and unpleasant jobs always attracted a wage premium as he explains in the Wealth of Nations:
The five following are the principal circumstances which, so far as I have been able to observe, make up for a small pecuniary gain in some employments, and counterbalance a great one in others: first, the agreeableness or disagreeableness of the employments themselves; secondly, the easiness and cheapness, or the difficulty and expense of learning them; thirdly, the constancy or inconstancy of employment in them; fourthly, the small or great trust which must be reposed in those who exercise them; and, fifthly, the probability or improbability of success in them.
First, the wages of labour vary with the ease or hardship, the cleanliness or dirtiness, the honourableness or dishonourableness of the employment. Thus in most places, take the year round, a journeyman tailor earns less than a journeyman weaver. His work is much easier. A journeyman weaver earns less than a journeyman smith. His work is not always easier, but it is much cleanlier. A journeyman blacksmith, though an artificer, seldom earns so much in twelve hours as a collier, who is only a labourer, does in eight. His work is not quite so dirty, is less dangerous, and is carried on in daylight, and above ground.
Honour makes a great part of the reward of all honourable professions. In point of pecuniary gain, all things considered, they are generally under-recompensed, as I shall endeavour to show by and by. Disgrace has the contrary effect.
The trade of a butcher is a brutal and an odious business; but it is in most places more profitable than the greater part of common trades. The most detestable of all employments, that of public executioner, is, in proportion to the quantity of work done, better paid than any common trade whatever.
Hunting and fishing, the most important employments of mankind in the rude state of society, become in its advanced state their most agreeable amusements, and they pursue for pleasure what they once followed from necessity. In the advanced state of society, therefore, they are all very poor people who follow as a trade what other people pursue as a pastime. Fishermen have been so since the time of Theocritus. A poacher is everywhere a very poor man in Great Britain. In countries where the rigour of the law suffers no poachers, the licensed hunter is not in a much better condition. The natural taste for those employments makes more people follow them than can live comfortably by them, and the produce of their labour, in proportion to its quantity, comes always too cheap to market to afford anything but the most scanty subsistence to the labourers.
Disagreeableness and disgrace affect the profits of stock in the same manner as the wages of labour. The keeper of an inn or tavern, who is never master of his own house, and who is exposed to the brutality of every drunkard, exercises neither a very agreeable nor a very creditable business. But there is scarce any common trade in which a small stock yields so great a profit…
The wages in any particular job will vary with the risks that are known to the worker in that job. That is an important qualification.
Competition in labour markets ensures that the net advantages of different jobs will tend to equality. This theory of the labour market originating in Adam Smith, which drives much of modern labour economics became to be known as the theory of compensating differentials.
Firms can choose their production technology to offer workers greater safety or they can economize on safety and offer the savings to workers in the form of higher wages. There is a trade-off in offering more safety or higher wages, holding constant the level of profits. As Kip Viscusi explains:
Wage premiums paid to U.S. workers for risking injury are huge—in 1990 they amounted to about $120 billion annually, which was over 2 percent of the gross national product, and over 5 percent of total wages paid.
These wage premiums give firms an incentive to invest in job safety because an employer who makes his workplace safer can reduce the wages he pays. Employers have a second incentive because they must pay higher premiums for workers’ compensation if accident rates are high.
One of the effects of safety regulation is the employers no longer have to pay this wage premium in more dangerous or disagreeable jobs but as Fishback wrote:
Studies of wages before and after the introduction of workers’ compensation show, however, that non-union workers’ wages were reduced by the introduction of workers’ compensation. In essence, the non-union workers “bought” these improvements in their benefit levels.
Even though workers may have paid for their benefits, they still seem to have been better off as a result of the introduction of workers’ compensation. Many workers had faced problems in purchasing accident insurance at the turn of the century. Workers’ compensation left them better insured, and allowed many of them to spend some of their savings that they had set aside in case of an accident.
What literature there is about suggest that workers overestimate small risks and underestimate large risks. Surveys of manufacturing employment show that one third of workers quit because they found out the job they accepted was more dangerous than they expected.
One clear trend of the 20th century is as countries got richer, workers demanded more safety at work and larger wage premiums. Market incentives for better worker safety dwarf legal incentives such as from being sued, which in turn dwarf regulatory incentives.
There is also evidence of a glass coffin effect. About 95% of workplace deaths of men. Indeed, there are some interesting journal papers about how occupational choice is affected by motherhood, sole motherhood and sole fatherhood. Single parents are more cautious about their occupational choices.
CHART: Here's a gender gap I don't think most women want to close. Next "Equal Job Fatality Day" occurs in 2026. pic.twitter.com/MNlovX0j52
It is unfortunate that the unions in New Zealand opposes a risk based system of workers’ compensation. The current system is not only no fault, employers pay premiums based on the risks of their industry, not of their individual workplace. There is plenty of evidence to show the charging premiums based on the risks of an accident and the previous record of workplace safety greatly reduces workplace deaths and injuries as Viscusi explains:
The workers’ compensation system that has been in place in the United States throughout most of this century also gives companies strong incentives to make workplaces safe. Premiums for workers’ compensation, which employers pay, exceed $50 billion annually. Particularly for large firms, these premiums are strongly linked to their injury performance.
Statistical studies indicate that in the absence of the workers’ compensation system, workplace death rates would rise by 27 percent. This estimate assumes, however, that workers’ compensation would not be replaced by tort liability or higher market wage premiums.
Like carbon trading permits, an individual transferable quota (ITQ) to a fish catch can be construed as a exclusive, perpetual right. An individual transferable quota (ITQ) is an allocated privilege to land a specified portion of the annual fish catch.
Fisheries regulators consider ITQ quota shares not to be property, but to convey a privilege to catch an amount of fish or shellfish in a given year that can be renewed or revoked. ITQs are quota shares may represent a different resource quantity every year as the total allocated catch may vary from year to year. Nonetheless, the ability to sell or lease ITQ shares implies a more enduring, if not permanent, fishing access privilege.
No one has yet successfully argued that the ability to adjust and modify an ITQ program constitutes grounds for a regulatory taking in the USA.
The Australian courts have found that fishing entitlements, although similar in terms of the privileges conferred, are not the common law property right of profit á prendre. They are a statutory entitlement. A profit á prendre is a right to take part of the soil, minerals, natural produce including fish and wild animals. The person does not own the thing gathered whilst it is on the land, but has a right to gather it.
Compensation for modification and extinguishment of these rights depends on whether there is compensation payable under applicable legislation or on whether the plaintiffs can rely on constitutional guarantees of acquisition of property on just terms. The courts have clearly indicated that fishing entitlements are rights created by government as means of regulating the fishing industry and are thus governed by the legislation that created them.
By annulling that legislation, the entitlement no longer exists. By modifying the legislation, the entitlement is redefined. Statutory licences are ‘inherently susceptible’ to modification or extinguishment.
See ‘ITQs and Property Rights A review of Australian case law’ by Sevaly Sen, Barry Kaufmann and Gerry Geen Fisheries Economics, Research and Management Pty. Ltd. Australia
Deregulatory takings is another name for reducing the size of carbon trading permits and individually transferable fisheries quotas. There is a large literature on deregulatory takings and regulatory contracts in the USA.
In electric power generation deregulation, ‘Stranded Costs’ represents the existing investments in infrastructure for the incumbent utility which may become redundant in a competitive environment. Stranded costs can also be defined as any investment that will be less valuable under competition than under regulation. Stranded costs are another name for the transitional gains trap.
Given there are no constitutional protections against regulatory takings, it would be ironic that there were constitutional protections against deregulatory takings.
It would be even more ironic that the viability of carbon trading is undermined by the unwillingness of the environmental movement to accept investor certainty over individually tradable quotas to a fishery catch. High-handed reductions of fisheries quotas set the stage for the same in carbon trading. Given that sovereign risk, the business community and investors will be less willing to support the regime been established in the first place.
Recent field research in San Francisco and North Carolina restaurants found that after San Francisco living wage increase, managers were pickier about whom they hire, because they want workers to be worth the higher cost. The San Francisco minimum wage is now $12.25, and all employers are required to offer paid sick days and contribute to their employees’ health insurance.
The study is useful because of instead of studying the myths and realities about how a higher minimum wage somehow motivates workers to be more productive and offset part or all of its cost to employers, the study investigates how the minimum wage, a living wage, affects hiring standards.
Employers of low skilled, low-wage workers look for workers who are friendly and reliable. As the study concedes, you can teach people the skills they need as long as they are friendly and reliable.
In San Francisco, recruits not only have to be friendly and reliable, they are expected to have experience. The living wage shuts out inexperienced and new workers, which promotes social exclusion.
Minimum wage workers in San Francisco are noticeably older and better educated than those in North Carolina and recruited after more intensive sorting and screening against the hiring standards for the vacancy:
Rather than viewing servers as essentially interchangeable labourers who can be quickly and easily trained if they possess a modicum of personal hygiene and a friendly personality, employers in San Francisco exhibited a clear description of what a professional server was and the explicit and implicit skills required.
The study did not enquire into what happened to applicants who failed to meet the higher hiring standard induced by the living wage increase. As is standard with the champions of the living wage, they do not want to talk about those excluded by the living wage rise.
Why Evolution is True is a blog written by Jerry Coyne, centered on evolution and biology but also dealing with diverse topics like politics, culture, and cats.
In Hume’s spirit, I will attempt to serve as an ambassador from my world of economics, and help in “finding topics of conversation fit for the entertainment of rational creatures.”
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