- UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
- The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
- This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
- The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
- The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
- The paper was very much too pessimistic
- Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
- The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
- The results will eventually be similar for all countries
- Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
- The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
- At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available
Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists
20 Apr 2020 Leave a comment
in econometerics, health economics Tags: economics of pandemics, pessimism bias
#COVID19 tradeoffs
18 Apr 2020 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, econometerics, economics of information, economics of regulation, health economics, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA Tags: economics of pandemics
Still more on #marilynwaring and economists ignoring home production @waring_marilyn @women_nz
17 Apr 2020 Leave a comment
in business cycles, development economics, discrimination, econometerics, economic growth, economics of love and marriage, fiscal policy, gender, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, occupational choice, poverty and inequality Tags: female labour force participation, female labour supply, gender wage gap, marital division of labour, marital labour supply
Steve Davis: How has #COVID19 affected businesses?
16 Apr 2020 Leave a comment
in business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, economics of natural disasters, health economics, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, managerial economics, organisational economics, personnel economics Tags: economics of pandemics
More on #marilynwaring and economists ignoring home production @waring_marilyn
12 Apr 2020 Leave a comment
in business cycles, discrimination, econometerics, gender, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, poverty and inequality Tags: gender wage gap
The calendar effect: changing number of public holidays falling in the working week measures the upper bound of the lockdown on GDP?
03 Apr 2020 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economic growth, health economics, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, macroeconomics Tags: economics of pandemics
1st born are better crime fighters @sst_nz @NZJusticeIdeas @JustSpeakNZ
30 Mar 2020 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economics of crime, economics of love and marriage, law and economics
Lee Ohanian on Japan’s Lost Decade
27 Mar 2020 6 Comments
in business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, Edward Prescott, fiscal policy, labour supply, macroeconomics, monetary economics
Lee Ohanian on dynamic general equilibrium models to study the Great Depression
26 Mar 2020 Leave a comment
in business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, financial economics, great depression, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, monetary economics
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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