Alex Epstein champions fossil fuels at the Senate
24 May 2016 Leave a comment
in development economics, economics, economics of religion, energy economics, entrepreneurship, environmental economics Tags: The Great Enrichment
Are Electric Cars Really Green?
18 May 2016 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, energy economics, environmental economics, global warming Tags: electric cars, rational irrationality
@350nz fossil fuel protesters admit plan was to intimidate ANZ, not peaceful protest
16 May 2016 Leave a comment
in comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, economics of crime, energy economics, environmental economics, global warming, law and economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, Rawls and Nozick, rentseeking Tags: climate activists, climate alarmism, law and order, non-violent direct action, peaceful protest, reactionary left
In a letter to the editor today in the Dominion Post defending a climate change protest that closed a branch of the ANZ bank, one of the participants Jimmy Green said
Of course our intention wasn’t to intimidate individuals – our intention was to intimidate ANZ into shifting its investments after the bank ignored us asking.
This honesty about the willingness to intimidate to advance a political agenda shows that climate protesters are engaging in plain thuggery. Peaceful protest has its role in any democracy.
What these thuggish protesters forgot about is how we resolve our differences in a democracy. That is by trying to persuade each other and elections. Let the people decide.
These protesters are keen to pass laws to save the environment but they’re more than happy to break laws they disagree with. I wonder if they extend that same courtesy to others they regard as less enlightened than them? They expect others to obey the laws for which they successfully lobbied.
Why do these climate action protesters think they can break laws that others secured through lawful, peaceful democratic action? Is some direct action more equal than others? Why do these climate action protesters think their vote counts more than mine?
John Rawls makes the point that the purpose of civil disobedience is not to impose your will upon others but through your protest to implore others to reconsider their position and change the law or policy you are disputing.
Rawls argues that civil disobedience is never covert or secretive; it is only ever committed in public, openly, and with fair notice to legal authorities. Openness and publicity, even at the cost of having one’s protest frustrated, offers ways for the protesters to show their willingness to deal fairly with authorities.
Rawls argues: for a public, non-violent, conscientious yet political act contrary to law being done (usually) with the aim of bringing about a change in the law or policies of the government; that appeals to the sense of justice of the majority; which may be direct or indirect; within the bounds of fidelity to the law; whose protesters are willing to accept punishment; and although civil disobedience involves breaking the law, it is for moral rather than selfish reasons, and the willingness to accept arrest is proof of the integrity of the act of peaceful protest.
Rawls argues, and too many forget, that civil disobedience and dissent more generally contribute to the democratic exchange of ideas by forcing the dominant opinion to defend their views.
The civil disobedient is attempting to appeal to the “sense of justice” of the majority and their willingness to accept arrest is proof of the integrity of the act as a contribution to democratic persuasion not intimidation says Rawls:
…any interference with the civil liberties of others tends to obscure the civilly disobedient quality of one’s act.
Rawls argues that the use or threat of violence is incompatible with a reasoned appeal to fellow citizens to move them to change a law. The protest actions are not a means of coercing or frightening others into conforming to one’s wishes.
The intimidation by the protesters at the ANZ bank and their promise to do it again as shown in the adjacent tweet is a breach of the principles of a just society. These climate change protesters blockading an ANZ bank branch were attempting to coerce and frighten others into conforming with their political views. That ‘might does not make right’ is fundamental to democracy and the rule of law. As United States Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia said
The virtue of a democratic system [with a constitutionally guaranteed right to free speech] is that it readily enables the people, over time, to be persuaded that what they took for granted is not so and to change their laws accordingly.
When the climate protesters lose at the ballot box, they always claim it is rigged by the corporate interests. This is just sore losers.
How the left-wing and liberal visions of democracy are different nymag.com/daily/intellig… http://t.co/Qk5vS9SaV4—
Jonathan Chait (@jonathanchait) August 13, 2015
The great strength of democracy is a small group of concerned and thoughtful citizens can band together and change things by mounting single issue campaigns or joining a political party and running for office and winning elections or influencing who wins.
Yesterday’s majority of the vote sooner or later and often sooner than they expect will break off into different minorities on the next big issue of the day. These newly formed minorities will use that same ability to band together as a minority to block vote to protect what they think is important and advance agendas they think are to be wider benefit despite the opinion of the current majority to the contrary. All reforms start as a minority viewpoint.
Indeed, it is a strength of democracy – small groups of concerned citizens banding together – is what is holding up legislating in many areas. It is not that minorities are powerless and individuals are voiceless. It is exactly the opposite.
Parliaments elected by proportional representation such as in New Zealand, and in Australian upper houses reinforces the ability of small groups of citizens to band together to win a seat.
Nothing stirs up the impassioned (and most other people as well) more than depriving them of their right to support or oppose what is important to them through political campaigns and at an election. The losing side, we all end up on the losing side at one time or another, are much more likely to accept an outcome if they had their say and simply lost the vote at the election or in Parliament. Scalia warned of, for example, the risks of the courts moving in advance of the popular will, and thereby poisoning the democratic process
We might have let the People decide. But that the majority will not do. Some will rejoice in today’s decision, and some will despair at it; that is the nature of a controversy that matters so much to so many. But the Court has cheated both sides, robbing the winners of an honest victory, and the losers of the peace that comes from a fair defeat. We owed both of them better. I dissent.
These climate change protesters want to rob the winners of their honest democratic victory over the balance between oil and coal exploration and other energy options. They are also robbing themselves of a fair defeat.
A fair defeat flows from laws and policies secured through normal democratic means knowing that one day you may be in a majority. Only by respecting the will of the majority when you are in the minority do you have any right to expect future minorities to respect your honest democratic victories as the majority of some future day. Democratic majorities of patched together through give-and-take and the reality that even the most important policies may be reversed in the future.

Climate change protesters should respect the political process because democracy alone can produce compromises satisfying a sufficient mass of the electorate on deeply felt issues so as to not poison the remainder of the democratic process. The losing side, we all end up on the losing side at one time or another, are much more likely to accept an outcome if they had their say and simply lost the vote at the election or in Parliament.
New Zealand’s 16 flightless birds should count themselves lucky
13 May 2016 Leave a comment
in energy economics, environmental economics Tags: endangered specie, expressive voting, green hypocrisy, killer green technologies, Left-wing hypocrisy, rational irrationality, wind power
Had we hit peak wind turbine technician demand?
09 May 2016 Leave a comment
in energy economics, environmental economics, global warming, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice Tags: Big Wind, green rent seeking, renewable energy, wind power
Doubling from 4,400 to 9,000 does not exactly strike me as an explosion in wind technician employment.
Source: Wind Turbine Technicians : Occupational Outlook Handbook: : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Yet still this occupation is expected to be the fastest-growing occupation in the USA in the next 10 years.
When is international action on global warming justified?
07 May 2016 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, energy economics, environmental economics, global warming Tags: carbon tax, carbon trading, climate alarmism, global warming
How green art thou? #buswaysforelectriccars not #BuswaysForBuses
06 May 2016 Leave a comment
in energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, politics - New Zealand, transport economics, urban economics Tags: busways, do gooders, electric cars, expressive politics, global warming, trade-offs, transport lobby
Finally have something nice to say about electric cars. They will put bus lanes to good use.
A trivial percentage of people take the bus to work In New Zealand. The government has a target of doubling electric car fleet every year (from 2000 in 2016 to 64,000 in 2021).
This decision yesterday to allow them to use busways allows us to relish in seeing environmentalists feud over which technologies are green enough to have access to priority lanes on the road such as those allocated to buses.
Which is more important? Saving the planet or saving the buses; most of them are diesel? Busways are empty at the weekends and many other times.
Does invested $1 in retrofitting saves $6 in health expenditure? @PhilTwyford @PeterDunneMP @AndrewLittleMP
05 May 2016 Leave a comment
in economics of regulation, energy economics, health economics, politics - New Zealand, public economics Tags: cost benefit analysis, economics of housing, economics of insulation, energy efficiency gap, The fatal conceit, The pretense to knowledge, valuation of life
Various bold claims have been made about the payoff from investing more in retrofitting insulation into housing. The government recently spent $600 million on such retrofitting of insulation.
https://twitter.com/PhilTwyford/status/728137160113557505
There is a private member’s bill before Parliament to introduce minimum standards for rental properties with regard to insulation and other matters. Little is by the Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little said for the consequences for rents of this additional expense to landlords.
Ian Harrison of Tail Risk Economics initially estimated that the $600 million invested in retrofitting of insulation will save barely half of that:
After correcting for this major error and taking a more realistic view of the benefit estimates in other studies, the net benefits of $630 million disappear.
The $600 million insulation investment will probably generate benefits of closer to $170 million, for an economic loss of $430 million.
After meeting with Ian, I read through the rather dull background documents behind a cost benefit analysis relied upon by the government to spend the $600 million dollars.
The most interesting part of the cost benefit analysis is most of the benefits come from fewer cardiovascular related hospitalisation of the elderly and not from respiratory diseases among children.
I found the error was far more fundamental than a incorrect transfer of a calculation between tables discussed in the first publication by Harrison. I had to read the background documents several times to understand what had been done wrong.
The cost benefit analysis for the Warm Up New Zealand Heat Smart Programme assumes that the number of elderly occupants of the newly insulated house increases by one each year and after 5 years, one of these dies but is replaced by a new elderly occupant.
We have modelled the probability of a vulnerable person avoiding mortality as a result of the intervention. The probability of this is (112.7/1000)*0.27= 0.03 (3%). We treat avoidance of mortality by treatment in each year as independent events.
The multi-year benefit calculated above would accrue based on the life years gained as a result of deaths avoided in year one.
However, we would expect these benefits to accrue in year two for different vulnerable individuals (aged 65 and over with a cardiovascular related hospitalisation in previous 18 months), and for different individuals again in every subsequent year that the treatment continues to have an effect, i.e. an on-going stream of benefits of $1,050.74 per year. This assumes a constant proportion of people aged 65+ who have recently been hospitalised with circulatory problems….( p.38).
In the first year of the new insulation, the first occupant benefits and the net present value is included in the benefit cost analysis calculation – the erroneous benefit cost analysis calculations which its authors still defend.
In the 2nd year, another elderly person moves into that same house and the same calculation is done for them. In the following year, yet another elderly person moves into the same house and the net present value calculation is repeated.
By the end of 5 years, there are 5 occupants in this house all benefiting from the same insulation investment. In the 6th year, the first elderly occupant dies to be replaced by a new elderly occupant who then gains from the insulation upgrade.
There was double counting of the number of people who benefited from the insulation as Iain Harrison explains
The analysis assumed that there was not one, but five occupants who had been hospitalised with a cardiovascular illness in the previous 18 months in each of the relevant insulated houses. There should have been only one such occupant.
The retrofitting of insulation was estimated to cost $600 million. Iain Harrison estimated the benefits to be $300 million, not $1.2 billion. That is a benefit cost ratio of 0.5.
Source: Iain Harrison, The mortality reduction benefits of insulation: the error identified.
Are We Running Out of Resources? #peakoil @greenpeace
04 May 2016 Leave a comment
in economics of media and culture, energy economics, environmental economics Tags: peak oil, pessimism bias
The Vice Fund (now the Barriers Fund) continues to outperform S&P 500
03 May 2016 Leave a comment
in defence economics, energy economics, entrepreneurship, financial economics, health economics Tags: BDS, efficient markets hypothesis, entrepreneurial alertness, ethical investing
Source: VICEX – USA Mutuals Barrier Fund Investor Class Shares Mutual Fund Quote – CNNMoney.com
The Vice Fund has outperformed the S&P 500 since 2004 as shown by the green line. This mutual fund invests invest in sinful stocks as its managers describe it:
Designed with the goal of delivering better risk-adjusted returns than the S&P 500 Index. It invests primarily in stocks in the tobacco, alcohol, gaming and defence industries. Vice Funds believes these industries tend to thrive regardless of the economy as a whole.
The Vice Fund is now known as the Barrier Fund because it extended out of sinful stocks into industries with high barriers to entry. Minimum Investment is $2,000.
The Barrier Fund primarily invests in the following industries: Aerospace/Defense, Gaming, Tobacco and Alcoholic Beverages. These four industries were chosen because they demonstrate one or more of these compelling and distinctive investment characteristics:
- Natural barriers to new competition
- Steady demand regardless of economic condition
- Global Marketplace – not limited to the U.S. economy
- Potentially high profit margins
- Ability to generate excess cash flow and pay and increase dividends
The Barrier Fund believes numerous investment opportunities in these industries which have been largely overlooked by other funds.
The Fund has high management fees of 2%. Americans can buy Vanguard’s or Fidelity’s index funds and pay only 0.1% in expenses.
When countries *do* tax carbon, it’s usually $15/ton or less @GreenCatherine @RusselNorman @Greenpeacenz
30 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
in energy economics, environmental economics, global warming Tags: carbon price, carbon tax, carbon trading, expressive voting
The renewable energy curse – does corruption turn clean energy into dirty? @GarethMP
30 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
in comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, energy economics, environmental economics, global warming, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: European Union, expressive voting, green rent seeking, Italy, renewable energy, solar power, wind power
Massimo Tavoni and Caterina Gennaioli published a nice paper showing that corruption and violence was higher in the high wind provinces of Italy after the installation of wind generators. They built on earlier work about countries with abundant renewable resources and weak institutions. The main question in their paper
… is whether an increase in the expected returns of investments in wind energy, following the introduction of the new policy regime based on a green certificate system, has driven economic agents, namely bureaucrats and entrepreneurs, to engage more in rent seeking activities.
As they studied Italy, there is no surprise about the answer which was yes. High winds ensure high returns of the wind farm investment, but whether this translates into more bribery depends on institutional quality. There was more corruption, and so especially in high-wind provinces of Italy.
Source: Green policy and corruption | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal.
The construction of an average wind park is associated with an increase of criminal association activity of 6%. Italy will have more corruption than elsewhere in the old European Union.
The wider problem is renewable energy is a celebrity technology. In the context of expressive politics, so many cheer for solar and wind power that standards drop in terms of who qualifies for subsidies and who should lose support when their investments do not turn out as promised.
https://twitter.com/CountCarbon/status/715136022414299138
Wind power is not new, it is intermittent, is unsuitable for modern work, and is land constrained but it is still subsidised. Green rent seeking is a real risk even in countries with the best political institutions.
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