Obama’s climate deal with China is a solar and wind energy fantasy

HT: thebreakthrough.org/us-china-climate-deal-underscores-need-for-substantial-energy-innovation

What is the survival rate of new small businesses?

HT: Do nine out of 10 new businesses fail, as Rand Paul claims? – The Washington Post.

For venture capital start-ups, about three or 4 out of 10 fail; three or 4 out of 10 return the original investment, with the rest offering a substantial profit.

Prediction markets and 2015 Oscars

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Rothbard on Insider Trading

Video

The meaning of capitalism

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John Bogle on the folly of share market speculation

 

via The Wisdom of Investment-The Folly of Speculation December 5, 2001.

Entrepreneurial alertness alert: After Rapture Pet Care

NYT in 1985 on why laptops doomed to be a niche market

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Picking winners versus the neglected art of setting the table

the neglected art of setting the table

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What were they thinking? NZ government super fund loses the lot on loan to already failing bank in one of the PIGS.

Portuguese bank

A Portuguese bank on the verge of collapse – what were they thinking?

That would have been the response of many newspaper readers this morning upon learning the New Zealand Superannuation Fund has lost nearly $200 million in taxpayers’ cash on a "risk-free" loan it provided to Lisbon-based Banco Espirito Santo (BES) on July 3.

The loan – part of a US$784 million credit package US investment bank Goldman Sachs put together through its Oak Finance vehicle – was made exactly one month before Portugal’s central bank broke up BES and split the country’s biggest lender into two, with one part holding the good assets and the toxic assets placed in the other.

Unfortunately, the Oak Finance loan is now stranded in the so-called "bad bank" following a retrospective law change by the Bank of Portugal.

Christopher Adams: What were they thinking? – Business – NZ Herald News.

Portuguese junk bonds bank of New Zealand super

This is what the 2015 index of Economic Freedom has to say about Portugal on the rule of law:

In 2013, the OECD expressed concern over Portugal’s reluctance to crack down on foreign bribery, particularly in regard to its former colonies Brazil, Angola, and Mozambique.

Since 2001, Portugal had officially acknowledged only 15 bribery allegations, and there had been no prosecutions. The judiciary is constitutionally independent, but staff shortages and inefficiency contribute to a considerable backlog of pending trials.

2014 index of economic Freedom

Creative destruction versus the Guardian: A £2-a-month levy on broadband could save our newspapers

ipad and newspapers

A small levy on UK broadband providers – no more than £2 a month on each subscriber’s bill – could be distributed to news providers in proportion to their UK online readership. This would solve the financial problems of quality newspapers, whose readers are not disappearing, but simply migrating online.

via A £2-a-month levy on broadband could save our newspapers | Media | The Guardian.

Did The Guardian just come out in support of a poll tax? Most people have broadband, so it’s the same practical effect?

Actively managed share funds are on the way out

After costs, the return on the average actively managed dollar will be less than the return on the average passively managed dollar for any time period.

—William F. Sharpe, 1990 Nobel Laureate

active versus passive managed funds net inflows

4 out of 5 actively managed fund portfolios underperformed all index fund portfolios in all scenarios tested.

percentage of funds in actively managed fund

expense ratios active and passively managed funds

via The tide is turning as investors switch from high-cost, actively managed funds to index funds for lower costs, higher returns » AEI | Carpe Diem Blog » AEIdeas and Mutual Fund Expenses | Lion’s Share.

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On the need to quantify and take advice from consultants

 - Dilbert by Scott Adams

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Alfred Marshall on state owned enterprises

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Managerial Econ: Top 5 problem-solving mistakes by MBA’s

“Avoid jargon” because most people misuse it. Force yourself to spell out what you mean in simple plain English. It will help your thinking and communication.

“What about the organizational design?” Figure out what is causing the problem, and then think about how to avoid the problem. A lot of papers identified a bad decision, and then suggested reversing it. But they neglected to address the issue of why the bad decision was made, and how to make sure the same mistakes wouldn’t be made in the future.

“Don’t define the problem as the lack of your solution.” For example, if the problem is “the lack of centralized purchasing,” then you are locked into a solution of “centralized purchasing.” Instead, define the problem as “high acquisition cost” and then examine “centralized purchasing” vs. “decentralized purchasing” (or some other alternative) as two solutions to the problem.

“What is the trade-off?” Every solution has costs as well as benefits. If you list only the benefits, it makes your analysis seem like an ex post rationalization of a foregone decision, rather than a careful weighing of the benefits and costs. If you spent some time thinking through the tradeoffs, show it. If not, then you should.

“Which language is this?” I write this when I get gobbledygook written in the passive voice with big words that don’t mean anything. Instead write simple declarative sentences that clarify rather than obfuscate. Form is not a substitute for content.

via Managerial Econ: Top 5 problem-solving mistakes by MBA’s.

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