Why are we always restructuring the workplace? The economics of organisational fickleness

Ok, whatever is, is efficient, but I always had my doubts when we are always restructuring wherever I worked. This continual organisational upheaval and restructuring was also a phenomena in the private sector.

What was the survival value of this continual disruption of organisational form and organisational capital in competition with rival firms with more stable internal organisational forms?

Internal reorganisations divert management time away from more profitable pursuits such as facilitating production. Managerial resources are scarce, like any other resource, and must be allocated to their highest value uses.

But as a firm grows, waste accumulates through the duplication of employee effort and the assignment of unnecessary tasks within the organisation.

Jack Nickerson and Todd Zenger wrote a great paper in 2002 on the efficiency of being fickle – of repeated reorganisations of the workplace. Their point was simple: times change and they change a lot faster than we think so organisations have to adapt to their rapidly unfolding new market conditions.

They illustrated their point about the need for regular reorganisation inside a short period of time with a case study of the alternating waves of centralisation and decentralisation in Hewlett-Packard.

Throughout the 1970s, Hewlett-Packard was a thoroughly decentralised organisation and was successful in the market. It had a remarkable record of innovation in the 1970s.

In the early 1980s, Hewlett-Packard hard found this decentralisation was starting to work against it in the rapidly evolving computer market. The Independent divisions developed computers, peripherals and components that will both incompatible with each other and competed with each other.

This redundancy between the independent divisions was costly and was confusing to consumers because they had a hodgepodge of products that really won’t related to each other. The computer industry in the early 1980s was involving very rapidly with many incompatible computers and programs, but the few that turned out to be the best became immensely profitable.

In 1984 and 1985, Hewlett-Packard hard centralise product development in headquarters and put all marketing and sales into one unit. Financial performance recovered after this reorganisation.

By 1990, Hewlett-Packard was on again in a steep financial decline. The centralisation of decision-making has slowed product development and there was a significant drop in innovation.

In 1990, computers was separated into competing products and computing systems. Individual product lines were decentralised and treated a separate business units.

In 1994, Hewlett-Packard again decentralised customer support of all computer activities. Three years later, it decentralised the same activities into three organisations. In 1999 it spun off its instruments and medical business.

Over 16 years, Hewlett-Packard, experience five fundamental ships alternating between decentralisation and centralisation. Each one of these reorganisations was greeted with the share price increase.

The reason why this fickleness in organisational form was efficient was the market changes rapidly. Organisational forms and organisational capital become obsolete rather quickly.

The form of organisation that survives in competition with actual and potential market rivals is that specific form of organisation which allows the firm to deliver the products that customers want at the lowest price while covering costs (Alchian 1950; Fama and Jensen 1983a, 1983b).

Each time Hewlett-Packard decentralised was a time in the product life cycle of their industry where there was rapid innovation. Hewlett-Packard tended to centralise in the consolidation phase of product life cycles.

New technologies are unproven and they come with much less information and prior experience to guide the top of a hierarchy in directing their successful adoption from a distance (Acemoglu, Aghion, Lelarge, Van Reenen and Zilibotti 2007). In any hierarchy, the top faces two problems with their subordinates: communicating their desires and seeing that they are carried out (Tullock 2005).

When a large firm directs major changes from the top of a hierarchy, failures of communication in the chain of command are a growing risk. More employees require more supervisors. More supervisors require more supervisors of supervisors at every tier of the hierarchy – the layers of supervision multiply (Posner 2010; Williamson 1975, 1985).

There are delay in executing orders, a loss of information and feedback on the way up, and the truncation of the directions from the top: there is a general weakening of control and coherence (Posner 2010; Williamson 1975, 1985). The daily implementation problems of new technologies cannot go up and down a hierarchy for resolution.

Firms must decentralise (rather than grow in hierarchy) to profit most from a line manager’s superior local knowledge about the implementation of the latest, more complex technologies. Delegating initiative to managers downstream is vital when a large firm introduces frontier technologies about which information flows upstream are slow and considerable learning by doing and rapid adaptation are required (Acemoglu, Aghion, Lelarge, Van Reenen and Zilibotti 2007; Jensen and Meckling 1995).

New technologies usually bug-ridden and require considerable refinement, adaptation and consumer feedback on their use before the mature product emerges (Greenwood 1999; Greenwood and Yorukoglu 1997). This costly process of learning, improvisation and product and process re-design explains the multi-decade long 10-90 lag in technology diffusion across firms in the same industry and the slow rate of consumer acceptance of new products.

Larger firms may struggle with striking the most profitable balance between greater local managerial discretion and effective corporate governance of a large diverse organisation with professional managers and diffuse ownership structures.

A risk of greater local managerial discretion in a large firm is less effective governance (Williamson 1975, 1985; Fama and Jensen 1983a, 1983b). The risks of separating of ownership from control and the distortions to knowledge flows in hierarchies drives the internal organisation of large firms and the division of decision control and decision management rights between the board and management (Fama and Jensen 1983a, 1983b; Williamson 1985).

The separation of decision management rights, vested in hired managers, from decision control rights, vested in the board of directors, is a common governance safeguard against conflicts of interest in business, professional and non-profit organisations, large and small (Fama and Jensen 1983a, 1983b).

Decision management rights cover the initiation and the implementation of decisions. Decision control rights involve the ratification and the monitoring of decisions. Managers and division heads carry out the production decisions, budgets and policies on wages, hours, staffing and job designs developed by head office and which are ratified by the board of directors (Fama and Jensen 1983b, 1985).

Competition between different sizes, shapes and internal organisational forms of firms all vying for sales, cheaper sources of supply and investor support sifts out the keener priced, lower cost, and more innovative enterprises (Alchian 1950; Stigler 1958). These lower-cost firms will be able to under-sell their higher cost rivals.

The winning firm size and internal organisational shape is that configuration which meets any and all problems the firm is actually facing and seizes more of the entrepreneurial opportunities that are within its grasp (Stigler 1958; Alchian 1950).

Large firms invest heavily in mimicking the nimbleness of small firms. Some firms re-create some of the advantages of being small by organising into M-form hierarchies made up of product divisions to improve performance monitoring, identify managerial slack, encourage mutual monitoring, promote competition within the firm for top-level management positions and facilitate comparisons of compliance with the policies of head office (Klein 1999; Fama and Jensen 1983a, 1983b; Williamson 1975, 1985).

Large firms must develop organisational architectures to assign decision rights, reward employees, and evaluate the performance of employees and business units. The aim is to empower subordinates with the requisite local knowledge with the power to act swiftly and the incentive to make good decisions. The organisational architecture of a firm encompasses the assignment of decision rights within the firm, the methods of rewarding individual employees, and the structure of the systems that evaluate the performance of individual employees and business units.

Poor cost control, budgetary excess and any lack of innovation and initiative over products designs and pricing, input mixes and wage and employment policies will reflect in relative divisional performances and overall corporate profits.

Any news of less promising current and future net cash flows will feed into share prices and into the labour market prospects of both career managers and the members of boards of directors (Manne 1965; Jensen and Meckling 1976; Fama and Jensen 1983a, 1983b; Demsetz 1983; Demsetz and Lehn 1985). To survive, managerial firms must balance delegation with more centralised control (Fama and Jensen 1983a; McKenzie and Lee 1998).

One way of balancing delegation with centralised control is simply to reorganise the firm on a regular basis as market circumstances change and entrepreneurial judgements about the future are updated. This regular reorganisation of the firm may seem fickle, but the firm must adapt or die. Firms must be efficiently fickle in their organisational forms.

Not only is whatever is, is efficient, any attempt to change whatever is, is efficient, because otherwise it wouldn’t be attempted. Of course, these reorganisations are entrepreneurial ventures that are never guaranteed success.

 

 

Entrepreneurship and sectoral mismatches in labour supply and labour demand

An important factor behind business fluctuations arises not from the balance between aggregate output and aggregate consumption, but from the accuracy of entrepreneurial matching of the individual patterns of output with the pattern of actual consumer demand in individual sectors (Black 1987, 1995).

Fluctuations in the match between resource deployment to different sectors and product demand across sectors can create major fluctuations in output and employment because moving resources from one sector into another is costly and time consuming.

What consumers will want and what can be produced in the future is uncertain. A plethora of sectors produce highly differentiated products with increasingly specialised inputs to serve consumers. Modern economic growth is built on ever greater product differentiation, ever greater product variety and ever increasing product quality produced by ever more specialised workers, firms and sectors. This explosion in specialisation is increasing the vulnerability of the business cycle to technology and taste shocks (Black 1987, 1995; Mehrling 2005).

Mismatches in the sectoral pattern of installed production capacity with actual consumer demand will arise because investments are driven by entrepreneurial forecasts of what will be wanted by consumers in the future. The capacity to produce output requires prior investments based on speculations about future consumer tastes, resource availabilities and technology progress. Part of the volatility in output and employment growth is from these investments depending on the uncertain details of the future.

Entrepreneurial errors in forecasting consumer wants will lead to inevitable mismatches of the production capacity with unfolding consumer demand. If future consumer tastes and upcoming technologies were better known now, employment would grow and be reallocated more smoothly to new uses than otherwise (Black 1987, 1995; Mehrling 2005).

When the match between forecasted and realised demand is good, there is a boom. Resources are where consumers want them. When the match is poorer, there is a recession. If events unfold in a markedly unanticipated direction, existing plans, investments and contracts require revision (Black 1987, 1995).

The existing matches between consumer desires, resource allocations by sector and production technologies can deteriorate. While a reallocation occurs, resources are diverted from production and are scrapped or are unemployed while searching for new uses (Black 1987, 1995).

Fixing a deteriorating match requires the structure of production to shift more into line with the structure of consumer demand. This takes time and consumes resources because human and other capital is highly specialised. It takes time for the new investments consistent with the latest entrepreneurial forecasts of consumer demand to be planned, built and start producing (Black 1987, 1995).

What can appear to be cyclical unemployment comes from alternations between periods of above and below average accuracy on entrepreneurial forecasting and better and worse matches in actual consumer demand and actual capacity to supply at the sector level (Black 1987, 1995; Mehrling 2005).

This type of cyclical unemployment is not a product of monetary, fiscal or other policy shocks. Resources need to be reallocated into a better alignment with consumer tastes and technological and resource possibilities. Preventing these sectoral reallocations will keep resources from moving from lower to higher value uses.

After longer booms, more human capital is more specialised to specific sectors, firms and jobs. This increased specialisation that helped underpin the prior economic boom can slow the recovery of employment at the end of the recession.

Job seekers will take longer to find good new job matches if they have more distinct backgrounds and specialised human capital. Job seekers have an incentive to search for longer to find these higher-paid job matches.

Employers will take longer to fill vacancies. The applicant pool is more diverse because of the high degree of specialisation of labour that is a legacy of the long prior boom. This accumulation of specific human capital over the course of longer booms will mean the length of the burden will affect the depth of the subsequent recession.More highly specialised workers have to be re-matched with new occupations and new sectors. More workers than usual will be putting off the day of having to face up to scrapping a significant part of their old human capital.

Can you invest in a trend?

 

U2 – I think we’ll pass

https://twitter.com/HistoricalPics/status/542846277978193920

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The flight to charter schools

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Entrepreneurial alertness alert: Grumpy Cat makes alert (now ex-waitress) owner $130m

…internet sensation Grumpy Cat has proved that malevolence is really quite marketable after amassing a staggering $NZ129.5m (£64m) fortune for her American owner in just two short years.

With her contemptuous scowl, Grumpy Cat – real name Tardar Sauce – has inspired countless memes, best-selling books, a brand of iced coffee and even a TV film featuring Parks and Recreation star Aubrey Plaza.

via Internet star Grumpy Cat makes owner $130m | Stuff.co.nz.

Early Adoption of Technologies since 1750 till 2012

Deigo Comin has been doing excellent work documenting both the length of 10-90 technology lags even for major technologies we now take for granted, and the contribution of these technology usage lags to international differences in living standards and post-war growth rates.

The East Asian Tigers all coincided with a catch-up in the range of technologies used with respect to industrialized countries. These development miracles all involved a substantial reduction of their technology adoption lags relative to (other) OECD countries

Diffusionrates

15 to 30 years is a common technology usage lag even within the United States for the 10-90 technology lag. The 10-90 lag  is how long it takes between when 10% of industry is using a technology, and 90% of an industry is using that technology.

Vasily Ryzhonkov's avatarEntrepreneurship, Business Incubation, Business Models & Strategy Blog

There is a plenty of research carried out about how important early adoption of technology is. I’ve recently skimmed a couple of researches on this topic. In my opinion there are two authors that made a better job than others. Their names are Diego Comin and Bart Hobijn.

They performed a cross-country analysis called Cross-country Historical Adoption of Technology (CHAT). This research dataset covers the diffusion of 104 technologies in 161 countries during the last 200 years. The data is available for download.

I just want to share with you the results of their report which could help better understand what’s happening in today’s world of innovations and entrepreneurship and what expect from future.

Finding # 1. “On average, countries adopted a new technology 45 years after its invention.”

Finding # 2. “Variation in adoption rates is larger than you might expect and accounts for 25% of differences…

View original post 95 more words

What are the rewards of investing in vice?

What is the Vice Fund? It invests in a collection of sinful stocks. As its managers describe it:

Designed with the goal of delivering better ​risk-adjusted returns than the S&P 500 Index.

It invests primarily in stocks in the tobacco, alcohol, gaming and defense industries.

We believe these industries tend to thrive ​regardless of the economy as a whole.

via Investing in Vice.

Edmund Phelps on smart industry policies

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M.A. Adelman on natural resource exhaustion

 

Eugene Fama on the role of the entrepreneur in the theory of the firm

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Did which of the Great Enrichment and OSHA make the workplace safer?

OSHAgraphViscusi1992c.gif

Original source of graph: Viscusi, W. Kip, John M. Vernon, and Joseph E. Harrington, Jr. Economics of Regulation and Antitrust. 2nd ed. Lexington, MA: D.C. Heath and Company, 1992, page 714.

HT: Art Diamond

Israel Kirzner on entrepreneurial alertness as the driving force of the market process

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Edmund Phelps on inequality, innovation and entrepreneurship

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Deirdre McCloskey has a 55-page review essay on Piketty

You will find it here (pdf), forthcoming in the Erasmus Journal of Philosophy and Economics.

via Deirdre McCloskey has a 55-page review essay on Piketty.

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