Is fossil fuels disinvestment a cheap or expensive futile gesture?

It is actually expensive to divest from fossil fuels both from the trading costs of selling, and more particularly, continuously monitoring your portfolio to make sure that fossil fuel companies have not entered surreptitiously in the course of companies in your portfolio buying shares in other companies that have subsidiaries in the fossil fuel industry.

Fischel’s study bases its conclusions on a historical comparison of two hypothetical, diversified, value-weighted stock indices for the period 1965-2014. One index included typical fossil fuel stocks, the other did not. The result: The fund that excluded the fossil fuel investments performed worse than the one that included them. Adding in a variety of other factors — attitudes toward risk, compliance and transaction costs — the analysis suggests that the climate-friendly fund would have earned 23 percent less over the last 50 years.

The Guardian quotes studies that argue the following:

Here are some studies, not funded by the oil industry, which indicate recent divestment would, if anything, have had a positive impact on returns and can reduce investment risk

That actually makes their arguments a wee suspicious. Too good to be true. It’s too much of a happy coincidence that moral choices such as disinvestments are also profitable.

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Indeed, if disinvestment was profitable, actively managed portfolios would already have disinvested or marked down the returns and exposure from those shares already to account for the risks of fossil fuel and the temporary profits of peak oil.

The environmental movement manages to believe in both peak oil – oil will run out in the next two decades or so – and global warming based on runaway carbon emissions for the rest of the century burning the increasingly expensive and increasingly scarce crude oil that had ran out a long time ago previously. Global warming will solve itself as long as we are willing to accept that the environmental movement is genuine in its predictions about peak oil.

At bottom, the Guardian is trying to argue that an actively managed portfolio offers superior returns to an index linked passive portfolio that minimises trading costs. Furthermore, that form of active management requires detailed monitoring of the entire portfolio to ensure that fossil fuel investments do not inadvertently re-enter through the investment decisions of each company in that portfolio.

I can’t remember whether its 70% or 80% of actively managed share portfolios fail to beat the market in any one year. The Guardian’s previously warned in its business pages about actively managed share portfolios swallowing up to 1/3rd of investment returns as management fees.

Figure 1: Who Routinely Trounces the Stock Market?

Actively managed portfolios fail to beat a passively managed portfolio with the same composition and diversification as the whole share market itself which trades in shares only for liquidity and to rebalance the portfolio to match new compositions of the share market. Just 2 out of 2,862 actively managed funds managed to beat the market five years a row in the US stock market.

Divestiture from fossil fuels is not a one-off act. There are continual compliance costs and an investment strategy that forecloses using a whole range of low-cost index linked passive investment share portfolio managers. That cannot be denied. . American University said that divesting from these companies would require that AU investments be withdrawn from index funds and commingled funds in favour of more actively managed funds [and] estimated this withdrawal would cause management fees to double.

Median stock prices show just how expensive the current market is

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Why do economic consulting firms exist?

Directors’ duties are the reason why the companies hire economic consultants. What consultants say isn’t important; the fact that simply the directors of a company sought advice is what matters. Same goes for the public sector: you must know what you’re doing,  you took advice from outside experts.

Central to avoiding being sued if the company goes broke, or otherwise gets into a spot of bother, is the directors show that they acted responsibly.

Central to this is they can show they took advice from esteemed advisers: an accountant, a lawyer and an economist. If they did so, they must be responsible prudent directors because they took advice.

Deirdre McCloskey argued that the advising industry lives off 19th century case law on directors’ and trustees’ duties.

If you take advice – from an accountant, a lawyer or an economist – and the business or investment still fails, it can’t be your fault that you lost the widow’s and orphans’s inheritance.

You took advice. That is what that 19th-century court held with regard to what directors do and do not have to do given the fact that are not involved in the business on a day to day basis.

James Burk, a sociologist and former stockbroker… found that the advice giving industry sprang from legal decisions in the early 19th century.

The courts began to decide that the trustee of the pension fund or a child’s inheritance could be held liable for bad investing if they did not take advice. The effect would have been the same had the court decided that prudent man should consult a Ouija boards or the flight of birds…

America decided through its courts than an industry giving advice on the stock market should come into existence, whether or not it was worthless.

Therefore, it doesn’t matter what you say as a consultant economist to a company, the fact you’ve said something to them is more important to them than what you are saying. Seeking and receiving your advice excused them from being sued for breach of their directors duties for a couple of days.

Would Keynes Have Been Fired as a Money Manager Today?

An excellent link by a great blog I have just come across.

Amol Agrawal's avatarMostly Economics

Interesting post by Ben Carlson.

Keynes managed an average return of 13.2% in the period 1928-45. The markets gave a return of -0.5% in the same period. This was an exceptional performance albeit came with much higher volatility. So would he have been fired for this performance?

View original post 360 more words

Twitter is trading at the same place post-IPO as FB was

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/558746817694040065

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Can you invest in a trend?

 

What are the rewards of investing in vice?

What is the Vice Fund? It invests in a collection of sinful stocks. As its managers describe it:

Designed with the goal of delivering better ​risk-adjusted returns than the S&P 500 Index.

It invests primarily in stocks in the tobacco, alcohol, gaming and defense industries.

We believe these industries tend to thrive ​regardless of the economy as a whole.

via Investing in Vice.

Edmund Phelps on smart industry policies

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Technology IPOs

Robert Barro on compulsory retirement savings

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Offsetting behaviour alert: KiwiSaver and the Accumulation of Net Wealth (WP 14/22) — The Treasury

Figure 1 - Estimating the impact of KiwiSaver on net wealth accumulation by DiD.

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyse the extent to which membership of KiwiSaver has been associated with greater accumulations of net wealth.

The paper utilises two linked sources of data which cover the period 2002 to 2010: Statistics New Zealand’s Survey of Family, Income and Employment and Inland Revenue Department administrative data on KiwiSaver membership.

Two approaches are employed: difference-in-differences (where the outcomes of interest are changes in net wealth) and various panel regression techniques.

Results appear consistent with earlier evaluations of KiwiSaver. Neither approach suggests KiwiSaver membership has been associated with any positive effect on net wealth accumulation.

via KiwiSaver and the Accumulation of Net Wealth (WP 14/22) — The Treasury – New Zealand.

David I. Levine on entrepreneurial alertness and the efficient markets hypothesis

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The share market speaks: the boom in marijuana shares

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Over the past two years, investors bid up penny stocks, which are stocks that trade for less than $5 a share, for marijuana from a $500,000 market to more than $7 billion.

The sale and use of marijuana is now approved for medical purposes in 22 states and the District of Columbia and is legal for recreational sales in Colorado and Washington state.

Among those will have to put their money where their mouth is, their entrepreneurial forecast is marijuana legalisation is only going to spread and the legal marijuana market is going to grow. Florida will vote on legalizing medical marijuana, and recent polls suggest the measure has the support needed to pass.

In February 2014, President Obama signed a law that allows states to experiment with industrial hemp. In response, 17 states have removed barriers to hemp production.

HT: Vox.com/marijuana-legalization-maps-charts-facts and https://twitter.com/business/status/479287579263524864

The reality of green investing

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Danny Devito explains both creative destruction and the social responsibility of business

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