Share market capitalisation by marijuana industry sector

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Source: For These 55 Marijuana Companies, Every Day is 4/20.

The Great Escape in one picture of fertility and infant mortality

.Source: Should we continue to use the term “developing world”? |  World Bank  – The Data Blog

If Meat Eaters Acted Like Vegans 

HT: Whale Oil

650m of the world’s poorest are without access to good drinking water

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How Measles Made a Comeback

Extreme poverty in Uganda, Swaziland and Botswana @jasonhickel @Carolyn_nth

Since 1985, extreme poverty has halved in Botswana and dropped by a 3rd in Swaziland and Uganda.

extreme poverty in Swaziland Botswana and Uganda

Source: World Poverty – Our World In Data.

Life expectancies are increasing again in Swaziland and Botswana after the HIV epidemic has come under more control.

LE by Age in swaziland

Source: Life Expectancy by Age in selected Country from 1990 to 2013 | Health Intelligence

LE by Age in Botswana

Source: Life Expectancy by Age in selected Country from 1990 to 2013 | Health Intelligence

Giving birth in Australia was seriously dangerous until the mid-20th century

Medical progress contributed more than people realise to women’s liberation. The key area of progress was far fewer deaths in childbirth as the chart below for Australia shows. Deaths from childbirth disappeared from mortality statistics in the 1940s and 1950s.

death rates of women in Australia from all causes

Source: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare via Sydney Morning Herald This chart shows how you will probably die, and it’s changed a lot in 100 years.

The next key area of medical progress was fewer disabling injuries subsequent because of childbirth that kept women out of the workforce for several years if not permanently. In Gender Roles and Medical Progress, Stefania Albanesi and Claudia Olivetti say

Consider a typical woman born around 1900. She married at 21 and gave birth to more than three live children between age 23 and 33. The high fetal mortality rate implied an even greater number of pregnancies, so that she would be pregnant for 36% of this time.

Health risks in connection to pregnancy and childbirth were severe. Septicemia, toxaemia, hemorrhages and obstructed labour could lead to prolonged physical disability and, in the extreme, death. In 1920 one mother died for each 125 living births. At a rate of 3.6 pregnancies per woman, the compounded risk of death from maternal causes was 2.9%.

For every death, twenty times as many mothers were estimated to suffer different degrees of disablement annually. Many maternal conditions had very long lasting or chronic effects on health, hindering women’s ability to work beyond their childbearing years.

Death in childbirth and serious complications from childbirth been forgotten in modern memory. So much so that there can be an entire year in New Zealand when no child nor mother dies in childbirth. When that does happen, there is a coroner’s enquiry.

The implications of medical progress around childbirth for female life expectancy has been equally forgotten as Albanesi and Olivetti explain

The development of bacteriology, the introduction of sulfominydes and antibiotics, and the diffusion of blood banks dramatically decreased the death rate from sepsis and hemorrhage. More specific interventions, such as the standardization of obstetric practices and the increased availability of pre-natal care, reduced the incidence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and obstructed labour, a causal factor for many forms of post-partum disability.

These developments lead to a stark decline in maternal mortality and a rise in the female-male differential in life expectancy at age 20 from 1.5 years in 1920 to 6 years in 1960.

At the beginning of the last century, the burden of childbirth and breastfeeding simply made it impossible for married women to work in any significant number as Albanesi and Olivetti explain

In addition, due to the lack of reliable alternatives, most infants were exclusively breast fed. Women would then be nursing for approximately a third of the time between age 23 and 33.

Since the average time required to feed one child ranges between 14 and 17 hours per week, with a 40 hour workweek, mothers would be nursing for 35%-43% of their potential working time in childbearing years.

Not surprisingly given this burden, few married women worked. Only 5.4% of married women aged 25 to 34 were in the labour force in 1900.

There was an extraordinary reduction in the number of years lost in disablement after childbirth in the early and mid-20th century as Albanese in Olivetti’s explain

…the years lost to disabilities associated with maternal conditions declined from 2.31 per pregnancy in 1920 to just 0.17 in 1960.

Medical progress  around childbirth is the most important force driving the rise in the participation of married women during childbearing years and post-childbearing between 1935 and 1965. The health burden of giving birth is now measured in weeks rather than years.

A lot of Australian babies used to die of influenza prior to the 1960s

causes of death but it is aged 0 to 4 Australia

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Children who had fast food 3+ times in past week in New Zealand by sex & deprivation index

Many sex differences are small on average but large at the extremes

https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/716888464348696576

In 1900, 25% died before age 20.

The dual concepts of Businesses Cannot Discriminate and Her Body, Her Choice have intersected

New York drinking establishments must post warnings against pregnant women drinking but still must serve them.

Pierre Desrochers explains why the ‘buy local’ food movement overstates environmental benefits

Straight talking from @BernieSanders on #sugartaxes @JordNZ

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Source: Bernie Sanders Op-Ed: A Soda Tax Would Hurt Philly’s Poor.

Does invested $1 in retrofitting saves $6 in health expenditure? @PhilTwyford @PeterDunneMP @AndrewLittleMP

Various bold claims have been made about the payoff from investing more in retrofitting insulation into housing. The government recently spent $600 million on such retrofitting of insulation.

https://twitter.com/PhilTwyford/status/728137160113557505

There is a private member’s bill before Parliament to introduce minimum standards for rental properties with regard to insulation and other matters. Little is by the Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little said for the consequences for rents of this additional expense to landlords.

Ian Harrison of Tail Risk Economics initially estimated that the $600 million invested in retrofitting of insulation will save barely half of that:

After correcting for this major error and taking a more realistic view of the benefit estimates in other studies, the net benefits of $630 million disappear.

The $600 million insulation investment will probably generate benefits of closer to $170 million, for an economic loss of $430 million.

After meeting with Ian, I read through the rather dull background documents behind a cost benefit analysis relied upon by the government to spend the $600 million dollars.

The most interesting part of the cost benefit analysis is most of the benefits come from fewer cardiovascular related hospitalisation of the elderly and not from respiratory diseases among children.

I found the error was far more fundamental than a incorrect transfer of a calculation between tables discussed in the first publication by Harrison. I had to read the background documents several times to understand what had been done wrong.

The cost benefit analysis for the Warm Up New Zealand Heat Smart Programme assumes that the number of elderly occupants of the newly insulated house increases by one each year and after 5 years, one of these dies but is replaced by a new elderly occupant.

We have modelled the probability of a vulnerable person avoiding mortality as a result of the intervention. The probability of this is (112.7/1000)*0.27= 0.03 (3%). We treat avoidance of mortality by treatment in each year as independent events.

The multi-year benefit calculated above would accrue based on the life years gained as a result of deaths avoided in year one.

However, we would expect these benefits to accrue in year two for different vulnerable individuals (aged 65 and over with a cardiovascular related hospitalisation in previous 18 months), and for different individuals again in every subsequent year that the treatment continues to have an effect, i.e. an on-going stream of benefits of $1,050.74 per year. This assumes a constant proportion of people aged 65+ who have recently been hospitalised with circulatory problems….( p.38).

In the first year of the new insulation, the first occupant benefits and the net present value is included in the benefit cost analysis calculation – the erroneous benefit cost analysis calculations which its authors still defend.

In the 2nd year, another elderly person moves into that same house and the same calculation is done for them. In the following year, yet another elderly person moves into the same house and the net present value calculation is repeated.

By the end of 5 years, there are 5 occupants in this house all benefiting from the same insulation investment. In the 6th year, the first elderly occupant dies to be replaced by a new elderly occupant who then gains from the insulation upgrade.

There was double counting of the number of people who benefited from the insulation as Iain Harrison explains

The analysis assumed that there was not one, but five occupants who had been hospitalised with a cardiovascular illness in the previous 18 months in each of the relevant insulated houses. There should have been only one such occupant.

The retrofitting of insulation was estimated to cost $600 million. Iain Harrison estimated the benefits to be $300 million, not $1.2 billion. That is a benefit cost ratio of 0.5.

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Source: Iain Harrison, The mortality reduction benefits of insulation: the error identified.

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