Thank you kind local government authority.

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Nuclear energy is a seriously safe power source

Men are 12X more likely than women to die from their jobs

@garethmorgannz dogma test: ban bikes, swimming & sugar – updated

Do-gooding curmudgeon Gareth Morgan takes great pride in his positions on public policy and health and safety such as a sugar tax are evidence-based.

He is quick to suggest that those that disagree with them are ignorant or steeped in moral turpitude, preferably both. His offsider has even suggested that I am too dogmatic to bother arguing with. Me!

It will be a slow train coming before Gareth Morgan takes an evidence-based health and safety approach to bikes and swimming. They are dangerous activities that should be banned if he is to be consistent. Morgan is a keen motorcyclist and recently asked for exclusive access to a seaside batch.

As I have previously argued, all the evidence suggests that riding a bike is dangerous. Both motorcycles and bicycles are way more dangerous than travelling by car.

Riding a motorbike and a bike should both be banned to protect motorcyclists and bicyclists from themselves. Like people who drink sugary drinks, they just do not understand the risks.

Swimming is an even more dangerous activity with multiple fatalities of a weekend common in summer. Again, people do not understand the risks of swimming both in the city and in rivers. They must be protected from themselves.

The argument that Gareth Morgan and his entourage will make in response to a demand for bans is the exact same one made against the food police.

I am sure Morgan will point out that people know that riding a bike or swimming is dangerous. Even those living in a cave also know that drinking sugary drinks and having a smoke is also dangerous. Indeed, the evidence is people overestimate the risks of these socially disapproved activities rather than underestimate them.

The argument that Morgan and his entourage would use against banning bikes, motorbikes and swimming is voluntary assumption of risk.

We live in a free society. If people want to lead a risky life, they are free to do so as long as they do not harm others.

Morgan is quick to point out the cost of the public health system of sugary drinks and other targets of the food police and the safety Nazis.

Last time I looked, bicycle and motorbike accidents resulting trips to emergency wards and other expenses to the taxpayer.

You cannot have it both ways. Arguing that the fiscal cost of sugary drinks and other roads is a rationale for regulating their consumption. That argument applies just as strongly to the case for – updated banning motorbikes, bicycles and swimming.

Until Gareth Morgan’s do-gooding extends to calling for the banning of a passion of his life, which is motorcycling, his evidence-based crusades do not have much standing.

You cannot reject voluntary assumption of risk on a selective basis especially when you engage in one of those risky activities yourself.

UPDATE: Morgan has in the past called for the insurance levy on motorbikes to reflect risk better than is the case now.

…research we’ve done at the Motorcycle Safety Advisory Council indicates that the risk of serious and expensive injury on a motorcycle is around 45 times higher per person-kilometre travelled as it is for occupants of other vehicles.

And we have a lot more bumps, scrapes and bruises per person-kilometre as well.

It gets worse. We also found that up to 31 per cent of our injuries arise from incidents involving no other vehicles. In other words we do this to ourselves because we can’t handle the road conditions.

Now of course we can blame the road as some of us are wont to do, but the reality is in most cases it’s pure incompetence or lack of self-management.

Any charging regime that gives riders an incentive to ride within their level of competence, to self-manage risk by wearing better protective clothing for example, or even lifting competency levels has to be a win-win doesn’t it?

This is not a call for a ban. Moreover, this is just a calm discussion of actuarial risk and the rampant cross-subsidies in the New Zealand universal, no fault accident compensation scheme.

Buried in at all these remarks by Morgan is people have the right to take risks and ride a bike if they want. No similar courtesy to people who like sugary drinks and those who support their right to drink and eat what they please. No similar courtesy to honest disagreement over whether a sugar tax is worth the trouble and strife.

What I must also add is the Morgan Foundation is a famous advocate of sugar taxes but a little-known advocate of actuarially fair insurance levies on motorbike. If the notoriety was the other way around, this debate would have more credibility. That is why I missed it in the first draft of this post.

I am still waiting for Gareth Morgan to call for bans on advertising of motorbikes and bicycles to children and on children’s television because they are impressionable. Why are motorbike and bicycle ads safe for children but cigarette and junk food ads not?

Milton Friedman argued that people agree on most social objectives, but they differ often on the predicted outcomes of different policies and institutions. This leads us to Robert and Zeckhauser’s taxonomy of disagreement

Positive disagreements can be over questions of:
1. Scope: what elements of the world one is trying to understand?
2. Model: what mechanisms explain the behaviour of the world?
3. Estimate: what estimates of the model’s parameters are thought to obtain in particular contexts?

Values disagreements can be over questions of:
1. Standing: who counts?
2. Criteria: what counts?
3. Weights: how much different individuals and criteria count?

Any positive analysis tends to include elements of scope, model, and estimation, though often these elements intertwine; they frequently feature in debates in an implicit or undifferentiated manner. Likewise, normative analysis will also include elements of standing, criteria, and weights, whether or not these distinctions are recognised.

The origin of political disagreement is a broad church in a liberal democracy. Those you disagree with are not evil, they just disagree with you. As Karl Popper observed:

There are many difficulties impeding the rapid spread of reasonableness. One of the main difficulties is that it always takes two to make a discussion reasonable. Each of the parties must be ready to learn from the other.

Feel-good policies attacking sugar in drinks will do nothing but provoke opposition and delay the day when people confront the fact that they are going to the fatter than their parents and their grandparents because they are richer.

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/599218426620485633

I lost 18kg after I was diagnosed with type II diabetes. Giving up sugary drinks and biscuits contributed maybe 2 kg to that weight reduction. Central to that weight production was I was well motivated.

A rise in the price of a sugary drink and the political fight over that turns friends into enemies and is a distraction from the larger cause.

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/698174875630989316

Greg Mankiw was on point when he said that do we really think that meddling at this micro level of sugary drinks serves any purpose and can government be trusted to micromanage our lives with pushes rather than nudges:

To what extent should we use the power of the state to protect us from ourselves? If we go down that route, where do we stop?

Taxing soda may encourage better nutrition and benefit our future selves. But so could taxing candy, ice cream and fried foods. Subsidizing broccoli, gym memberships and dental floss comes next. Taxing mindless television shows and subsidizing serious literature cannot be far behind.

Even as adults, we sometimes wish for parents to be looking over our shoulders and guiding us to the right decisions. The question is, do you trust the government enough to appoint it your guardian?

Workplace safety, spans of control and directors’ duties

Workplace safety arises as a by-product of economic growth. Risks in the workplace and outside that would not countenance now were routine a few decades ago because the risk of eliminating them was high.

The soon to take effect New Zealand health workplace safety legislation makes it much more difficult to have independent directors and part-time directors of companies. That will both weaken the ability of shareholders to prevent insider control as well as introduce a diversity of views onto boards of directors.

The resignation of Sir Peter Jackson is an example of this. Talented entrepreneurs are no longer able to run large numbers by sitting on the board and intervening on a management by exception basis.

Rupert Murdoch as an example of an executive able to run a global empire. He would ring up the chief executives of his subsidiaries for one minute to month. If they are talking about something interesting, he would listen for longer. He was the ultimate one-minute manager who built a global empire around his supreme entrepreneurial talent.

The new legislation on workplace safety will increase the cost of building a successful business from the ground up. Entrepreneurs will not be able to quickly intervene in the company and dismiss underperforming executives who look after things while they are away. This is because they are not on the Board of Directors.

One constraint on the growth of any firm is entrepreneurs have a limited span of control (Coase 1937; Williamson 1967, Lucas 1978; Oi 1983a, 1983b). A span of control is the number of subordinates that an individual supervisor has to control and lead either directly or through a hierarchical managerial chain (Fox 2009). There are only so many tasks that even the most able of entrepreneurs can carry out in one day. Over-stretched spans of control motivate entrepreneurs to hire professional managers and delegate to them a wide range of decision-making rights over the firms they own (Williamson 1975; Foss, Foss and Klein 2008).

Entrepreneurs and the professional managers they hired to assist them must divide their respective time between monitoring employees, identifying new business opportunities, forecasting buyer demand and running the other aspects of their business (Lucas, 1978; Oi 1983, 1983b, 1988; Foss, Foss, and Klein 2008). The larger is the firm, the more employees there are for the entrepreneur to direct, monitor and reward. These costs of directing and monitoring employees will increase with the size of the firm and larger firms will encounter information problems not present in smaller firms (Alchian and Demsetz 1972; Stigler 1962)

The time of the more talented entrepreneurs is more valuable because they had the superior managerial skills and entrepreneurial alertness to make their firms large in the first place and remain deft enough to survive in competition. Time spent on the supervision of employees is time that is spent away from other uses of the talents that got these more able entrepreneurs to the top and keeps them there (Williamson 1967; Lucas 1978; Oi 1983b, 1988, 1990; Idson and Oi 1999; Black et al 1999).

Firms in the same industry tend to exhibit systematic differences in their organization of production and the structure of their workforces because entrepreneurial ability is the specific and scarce production input that limits the size of a firm (Lucas, 1978; Oi 1983b). The less able entrepreneurs tend to run the smaller firms while the better entrepreneurs tend to lead both the currently large firms and the smaller firms that are growing at the expense of market rivals (Lucas 1978, Oi 1983b; Stigler 1958; Alchian 1950).

There has been a tremendous improvement in the working conditions over the 20th century. The main driver was the incentive and employers to provide safe workplaces as real wages grew. Adam Smith noted that more dangerous and unpleasant jobs always attracted a wage premium as he explains in the Wealth of Nations:

The five following are the principal circumstances which, so far as I have been able to observe, make up for a small pecuniary gain in some employments, and counterbalance a great one in others: first, the agreeableness or disagreeableness of the employments themselves; secondly, the easiness and cheapness, or the difficulty and expense of learning them; thirdly, the constancy or inconstancy of employment in them; fourthly, the small or great trust which must be reposed in those who exercise them; and, fifthly, the probability or improbability of success in them.

First, the wages of labour vary with the ease or hardship, the cleanliness or dirtiness, the honourableness or dishonourableness of the employment. Thus in most places, take the year round, a journeyman tailor earns less than a journeyman weaver. His work is much easier. A journeyman weaver earns less than a journeyman smith. His work is not always easier, but it is much cleanlier. A journeyman blacksmith, though an artificer, seldom earns so much in twelve hours as a collier, who is only a labourer, does in eight. His work is not quite so dirty, is less dangerous, and is carried on in daylight, and above ground.

Honour makes a great part of the reward of all honourable professions. In point of pecuniary gain, all things considered, they are generally under-recompensed, as I shall endeavour to show by and by. Disgrace has the contrary effect.

The trade of a butcher is a brutal and an odious business; but it is in most places more profitable than the greater part of common trades. The most detestable of all employments, that of public executioner, is, in proportion to the quantity of work done, better paid than any common trade whatever.

Hunting and fishing, the most important employments of mankind in the rude state of society, become in its advanced state their most agreeable amusements, and they pursue for pleasure what they once followed from necessity. In the advanced state of society, therefore, they are all very poor people who follow as a trade what other people pursue as a pastime. Fishermen have been so since the time of Theocritus. A poacher is everywhere a very poor man in Great Britain. In countries where the rigour of the law suffers no poachers, the licensed hunter is not in a much better condition. The natural taste for those employments makes more people follow them than can live comfortably by them, and the produce of their labour, in proportion to its quantity, comes always too cheap to market to afford anything but the most scanty subsistence to the labourers.

Disagreeableness and disgrace affect the profits of stock in the same manner as the wages of labour. The keeper of an inn or tavern, who is never master of his own house, and who is exposed to the brutality of every drunkard, exercises neither a very agreeable nor a very creditable business. But there is scarce any common trade in which a small stock yields so great a profit…

The wages in any particular job will vary with the risks that are known to the worker in that job. That is an important qualification.


Competition in labour markets ensures that the net advantages of different jobs will tend to equality. This theory of the labour market originating in Adam Smith, which drives much of modern labour economics became to be known as the theory of compensating differentials.


Firms can choose their production technology to offer workers greater safety or they can economize on safety and offer the savings to workers in the form of higher wages. There is a trade-off in offering more safety or higher wages, holding constant the level of profits. As Kip Viscusi explains:

Wage premiums paid to U.S. workers for risking injury are huge—in 1990 they amounted to about $120 billion annually, which was over 2 percent of the gross national product, and over 5 percent of total wages paid.

These wage premiums give firms an incentive to invest in job safety because an employer who makes his workplace safer can reduce the wages he pays. Employers have a second incentive because they must pay higher premiums for workers’ compensation if accident rates are high.

One of the effects of safety regulation is the employers no longer have to pay this wage premium in more dangerous or disagreeable jobs but as Fishback wrote:

Studies of wages before and after the introduction of workers’ compensation show, however, that non-union workers’ wages were reduced by the introduction of workers’ compensation. In essence, the non-union workers “bought” these improvements in their benefit levels.

Even though workers may have paid for their benefits, they still seem to have been better off as a result of the introduction of workers’ compensation. Many workers had faced problems in purchasing accident insurance at the turn of the century. Workers’ compensation left them better insured, and allowed many of them to spend some of their savings that they had set aside in case of an accident.

What literature there is about suggest that workers overestimate small risks and underestimate large risks. Surveys of manufacturing employment show that one third of workers quit because they found out the job they accepted was more dangerous than they expected.


Source: Evaluating OSHA’s Effectiveness and Suggestions for Reform | Mercatus

One clear trend of the 20th century is as countries got richer, workers demanded more safety at work and larger wage premiums. Market incentives for better worker safety dwarf legal incentives such as from being sued, which in turn dwarf regulatory incentives.

There is also evidence of a glass coffin effect. About 95% of workplace deaths of men. Indeed, there are some interesting journal papers about how occupational choice is affected by motherhood, sole motherhood and sole fatherhood. Single parents are more cautious about their occupational choices.

It is unfortunate that the unions in New Zealand opposes a risk based system of workers’ compensation. The current system is not only no fault, employers pay premiums based on the risks of their industry, not of their individual workplace. There is plenty of evidence to show the charging premiums based on the risks of an accident and the previous record of workplace safety greatly reduces workplace deaths and injuries as Viscusi explains:

The workers’ compensation system that has been in place in the United States throughout most of this century also gives companies strong incentives to make workplaces safe. Premiums for workers’ compensation, which employers pay, exceed $50 billion annually. Particularly for large firms, these premiums are strongly linked to their injury performance.

Statistical studies indicate that in the absence of the workers’ compensation system, workplace death rates would rise by 27 percent. This estimate assumes, however, that workers’ compensation would not be replaced by tort liability or higher market wage premiums.

@TransportBlog should bikes be banned as unsafe?

Source: Cyclist crash facts | Ministry of Transport.

Should swimming be banned?

Many more drown in New Zealand than die at work. There is heavy regulation of workplace risks. The same cannot be said for people to jump into beaches, rivers and streams. Many more go to work each day as compared to going swimming.

Source: Annual Statistics » DrownBase and Workplace fatalities by industry | Worksafe.

Voluntary assumption of risk cuts no ice with those that champion stronger occupational health and safety regulation. The approach to water safety is near laissez-faire both in terms of the rules and enforcement and certainly in terms of success in reducing drownings. The large variations in annual drownings suggest that human behaviour has a lot to do with drownings.

Workplace fatalities by industry in New Zealand since 2010

Working in forestry and agriculture is dangerous in New Zealand. There are only about four and half thousand agricultural workers but five to 10 die every year. Agriculture is also relatively dangerous. The Pike River mining disaster killed 29 in 2010. Construction, a large industry, also has a number of fatalities.

image

Source: Workplace fatalities by industry | Worksafe.

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Source: Workplace fatalities by industry | Worksafe.

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Occupational Health & Safety has come a long way

Occupational Health & Safety has come a long way

@TransportBlog @JulieAnneGenter community outrage at new bike lane death trap in Island Bay

Source: Wellington’s Island Bay cycleway has left residents confused and angry | Stuff.co.nz.

We drove past this bicycle death trap in island Bay in Wellington the other weekend. The first thing I noticed is a lot of bicycle will be sideswiped as passengers in cars open their left door not expecting anybody to be there. The bike lane also narrows the road from buses. Residents now have a lot of trouble safely getting out of their houses without both are running over bicyclists and seeing oncoming cars. Further proof that bikes are a killer green technology.

Source: Wellington’s Island Bay cycleway has left residents confused and angry | Stuff.co.nz.

Part of the nonsense behind this death trap is that more people ride their bike if they can do so safely such as on this death trap according to the local mayor:

Wellington Mayor Celia Wade-Brown acknowledged the recent social media backlash – which she dubbed “bike-lash” – but was confident it would simmer down once the cycleway was complete.

She pointed to the council’s research, which showed 76 per cent of Wellingtonians would cycle more if cycling was safer.

“And I think a scientific survey is a clearer indication [of Wellingtonians’ views on the cycleway] than the number of social media likes or dislikes.”

Obviously our local mayor has not heard of the social acceptability bias that arises when answering questions about whether or whether not they are use fashionable forms of transport.

The number of people in Wellington taking a bicycle to work in Wellington is trivial. Three times as many walk to work as take a bike to work in Wellington.

Source: New Zealand Transport Agency.

The Twitter Left mantra as championed by the Greens and Transport Blog is that it would all be so much different we invested a little bit more in public transport is a myth.

The experience in Europe and North America is that if you make buses free, the cheapies that currently bike take the bus or train. In addition, the street people find it comfortable warm place to hang out when during the day which drives the regular customers away.

A 2002 report released by the National Center for Transportation Research indicated that the lack of fares attracted hordes of young people, who brought with them a culture of vandalism, graffiti, and bad behavior—which all necessitated costly maintenance. The lure of “free,” the report implied, attracted the “wrong” crowd—the “right” crowd, of course, being wealthier people with cars, who aren’t very sensitive to price changes.

The gender gap in workplace fatalities

The occupational hazards of different musical genres

Unions – not the cause of our 40 hour workweek

A power pole in India

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