Court-siding as The Sting reborn?

Court-siding in the Cricket World Cup yesterday reminded me of the 1973 classic movie The Sting with Paul Newman and Robert Redford. This movie is still worth watching today – a great Robert Redford, Paul Newman movie told with great wit.

Both court-siding and The Sting were both sharp practices by gamblers based on the delay in broadcasting sports results.

In court siding, the six or seven second delay in cricket broadcasts allow spectators with mobile phones to tip off gambling confederates in other parts of the world to place last second bets.

Court siding carries a 10 year prison term in the Australian State of Victoria. It is not illegal elsewhere and some have suggested that gambling syndicates turned to court siding because it’s easier to accomplish than match fixing.

Dozens of people are ejected from cricket games every year for court siding. They are easy to spot. They take no interest in the game, don’t cheer or clap and spend all their time on a mobile phone or laptop.

In The Sting, a bunch of grifters conned a gangster by pretending they could manipulate the distribution of horseracing results by the local telegraph office in the 1920s. The confederate delays the distribution of the racing results for several minutes, so the race is run and the result known before the bets are placed with the unsuspecting betting shop, relying on Telegraph racing results.

Central to the con, which is called the Wire is setting up a betting shop filled with grifters in on the con placing false bets. The only gambler who places a real bet is the mark.

The wire was most popular in the early 20th century, when horse and dog race results were sent to betting parlours via the telegraph. As with court-siding, the con is time and personnel intensive requiring a large gang to be involved.

As with most cons, the Wire is based on manipulating the greed and deep pockets of the mark, including a willingness to act illegally to profit from gambling or other business ventures.

In the case of The Wire, there is corruption involved because a confederate of the telegraph office is supposed to be on the take. The confederate in the Telegraph office delays distribution of the race results, while the tips of his co-conspirators giving them enough time to place a bet.

In the case of court siding, this practice seems to me to be simply entrepreneurial alertness or arbitrage.

Betting in sport is often on spreads such as when a no ball is bowled, who is the first change bowler, who bowled a no ball or got out before a milestone such as 50 or 100 runs.

Court siding cannot be stopped by closing the betting shop 10 seconds early because they are not events that happen to a timetable such as closing the betting before the race starts.

It is up to bookmakers to solve this problem because it is an ordinary business problem. There is no corruption, bribery or any form of conspiracy between the employees of the bookmaker and the gamblers or between the gamblers and the players of the particular sport. The police should not be wasting their time with court siding.

Bookmakers could stop the practice of court-siding dead if they introduced a 10 second delay between lodging a bet online and when the bet is accepted. This 10 second delay is longer than the broadcasting delay that makes court siding possible and profitable.

Buzz Aldrin punches Moon landing conspiracy theorist stalker after being harassed by him

HT: Liar_tuck

What is the next best explanation for this dramatic fall in crime rates in Chicago?

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William Blackstone’s maximum

All presumptive evidence of felony should be admitted cautiously; for the law holds, that it is better that ten guilty persons escape, than that one innocent suffer.  - William Blackstone

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the number of terrorist incidents driven by religion has increased dramatically since 2000

HT: wonkblog

Spot the jihadist translated from French

A decriminalisation rally with attitude

https://twitter.com/oldpicsarchive/status/560770364100579328

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Spurious correlations alert: executions and murder rates – updated

– Updated

Many a data shyster will make hay with the above chart on the simple correlation between executions and the drop in the US murder rate.

The reality is there are so few executions and they are so infrequent with the exception of Texas that any purported correlation between the death penalty and murder rates requires careful study.

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Indeed, for some condemned prisoners, gang bangers are an example, their life expectancy may be increased by the long time they spend on death row versus been murdered by a business associated or a business rival on the streets. As Levitt noted:

no rational criminal should be deterred by the death penalty, since the punishment is too distant and too unlikely to merit much attention.

As such, economists who argue that the death penalty works are put in the uncomfortable position of having to argue that criminals are irrationally overreacting when they are deterred by it.

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The occupational hazard of been murdered by business rival for gang bangers is higher than the chance of them been arrested, tried , convicted, and condemned to death and then executed after a long appeals process. Not surprisingly, Levitt argued that:

…the quality of life in prison is likely to have a greater impact on criminal behaviour than the death penalty.

Using state-level panel data covering the period 1950–90, we demonstrate that the death rate among prisoners (the best available proxy for prison conditions) is negatively correlated with crime rates, consistent with deterrence. This finding is shown to be quite robust.

In contrast, there is little systematic evidence that the execution rate influences crime rates in this time period.

Are Uber drivers twice as likely to be murdered as a cop?

wonkblog/charted-the-20-deadliest-jobs-in-america

The Public Has Lightened Up on Weed

Embedded image permalink

HT: https://twitter.com/David_Boaz/status/493382382507278336?s=09

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Best mug shot ever

https://twitter.com/DumbestCrim/status/558689540328935425

Double standards on terrorism

It is only illegal if you get caught?

https://twitter.com/DumbestCrim/status/558799631162036227

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These are undercover officers?

https://twitter.com/classicepics/status/558895478654656512

A simple model of crime waves, riots and revolution

In ‘A simple model of crime waves, riots, and revolutions’, Alexander Tabarrok puts forward a model of crime waves that applies not only to crime but also to phenomena like riots, strikes, and revolutions.

  • In each of these cases, the probability of being punished is a decreasing function of the total amount of the activity.
  • The probability that a rioter is apprehended falls the more rioters there are.
  • The probability that a striker or a revolutionary is punished is less the greater the number of strikers and revolutionaries. This is true even if the revolution or strike fails.

The standard model of crime analyses a criminal’s decisions as if they were unrelated to the decisions of other criminals.

The game-theoretic approach examines the entire system of criminal decisions exploring the implications of interdependence.

As crime increases, police resources become strained at the margin and the probability of punishment falls, causing other criminals to increase their criminal activities.

As others turn to crime, the probability of punishment falls even further, giving each individual an additional reason to increase his criminal activities.

Joining into a revolution or a riot has the same calculus of independence. You are less likely to be caught and punished if you will face in the crowd.

This interdependence in the probability of detection, arrest and punishment lowers the cost of participation. Not surprisingly, judges of been aware of this for some time and have hand out severe punishments such as after the 2011 London riots. These riots fell away sharply once these penalties were handed out and more police were on the streets to catch rioters.

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