Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
21 Dec 2023 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic history, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, history of economic thought, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: monetary policy
The Herald ran an op-ed yesterday under the heading “Why the Government’s new Reserve Bank mandate may lead to worse outcomes”. It was written by Toby Moore who served as an economic adviser in Grant Robertson’s office while he was Minister of Finance (a fact the Herald chose not to disclose to its readers). I’m more […]
Unconvincing
21 Dec 2023 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic history, great depression, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, monetary economics
I just got a copy of Ralph Hawtrey’s Trade Depression and the Way Out (1933 edition, an expanded version of the first, 1931, edition published three days before England left the gold standard). Just flipping through the pages, I found the following tidbit on p. 9. The banking system of the world, as it was […]
Hawtrey on the Interwar Gold Standard
18 Dec 2023 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic growth, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, history of economic thought, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: monetary policy
When the Reserve Bank MPC came out late last month with its last words on monetary policy before its extended summer break, my post then was headed “Really?“. It was a commentary on the disjunction between the Reserve Bank’s inflation forecasts on the one hand, that showed quarterly inflation collapsing (not really too strong a word […]
Monetary policy turning points
16 Dec 2023 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic growth, economic history, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics
The quarterly GDP data were out on Thursday. Quite how one reads them probably depends on bit on where your focus lies. To the extent that the focus is on squeezing out inflation then any data that points to excess demand dissipating a bit faster is mostly a good and welcome thing. The sooner inflation is back to […]
GDP per capita growth
14 Dec 2023 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic growth, economic history, financial economics, great depression, history of economic thought, labour economics, macroeconomics, Milton Friedman, monetarism, monetary economics, unemployment Tags: monetary policy
In my previous post, I explained how the real-bills doctrine originally espoused by Adam Smith was later misunderstood and misapplied as a policy guide for central banking, not, as Smith understood it, as a guide for individual fractional-reserve banks. In his recent book on the history of the Federal Reserve, Robert Hetzel recounts how the […]
Hetzel Withholds Credit from Hawtrey for his Monetary Explanation of the Great Depression
13 Dec 2023 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic history, history of economic thought, inflation targeting, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, unemployment Tags: monetary policy
I guess it will be an Act by the end of the day, but for now the short bill giving effect to a return to a single statutory objective for monetary policy is here. Yesterday’s parliamentary debate (first and second reading) is here, here, and here. The heart of the bill is this clause Note […]
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (Economic Objective) Amendment Bill
13 Dec 2023 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, development economics, economic growth, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, fiscal policy, growth disasters, growth miracles, history of economic thought, income redistribution, labour economics, macroeconomics, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking, Ronald Coase Tags: Argentina
Argentina has a very interesting, but also rather tragic, economic history. During first half of the 20th century, it was one of the world’s richest nations. But thanks to dirigiste economic policies (known locally as Peronism) starting after World War II, Argentina has suffered a dramatic decline in relative living standards. However, something shocking has […]
An Upside-Down Economic History of Argentina
12 Dec 2023 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, development economics, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, growth disasters, history of economic thought, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetarism, monetary economics, unemployment Tags: monetary policy
Inflation rates have come down since their peak in mid-2022. Does the Federal Reserve need to continue its inflation-fighting ways, keeping interest rates high? Anil Ari, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Victor Mylonas, Lev Ratnovski, and WeiZhao of the IMF look to historical and international experience in “One Hundred Inflation Shocks: Seven Stylized Facts” (September 2023, WP/23/190). As…
Lessons from Fighting 100 Inflations Since the 1970s
06 Dec 2023 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, inflation targeting, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, unemployment Tags: monetary policy
It doesn’t seem to have been the best week for the Reserve Bank since the release of the latest Monetary Policy Statement last Wednesday. Of course, one could make a pretty compelling case that in the Orr years few weeks have been, and especially not any weeks when Bank figures actually say or do anything. […]
Really?
30 Nov 2023 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, currency unions, development economics, fiscal policy, growth disasters, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: Argentina, dollarisation
Yes, I do still favor it, but here is part of the problem, as I explain in my latest Bloomberg column: The simplest way for Argentina to dollarize would be to inflate the peso even more. For purposes of argument, imagine a peso inflation rate of one billion percent a year. Pesos would be worthless, […]
Why Argentina’s dollarization is likely to come in sudden, messy ways
29 Nov 2023 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, global financial crisis (GFC), great depression, great recession, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, Milton Friedman, monetarism, monetary economics
Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative by Jennifer Burns 592 pages Farrar, Straus and Giroux Published: Nov 2023 Released two weeks ago, Jennifer Burns’s “Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative” is the most significant biography of Friedman ever published. Burns is an associate professor of history at Stanford and a research fellow at the Hoover Institution. She […]
Review of “Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative” by Jennifer Burns
27 Nov 2023 Leave a comment
in business cycles, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: monetary policy
But first a correction. As I noted on Twitter and very briefly on the post itself on Saturday, it seems that the gist of my post on Friday was wrong. The repeal of Labour’s tobacco de-nicotinisation legislation – whatever motivated the parties that championed the change – will leave the flow of tobacco excise revenue […]
The new government and the Reserve Bank
22 Nov 2023 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, global financial crisis (GFC), great depression, great recession, history of economic thought, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: monetary policy
18 Nov 2023 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, great depression, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, monetary economics, unemployment
TweetWant to get a few hours’ worth of solid learning in less than 35 enjoyable minutes? Listen to my Mercatus Center colleague David Beckworth’s podcast (from October 2022) with George Selgin on the New Deal. Seriously. It will be 34-plus minutes very well spent. George’s book – False Dawn – is forthcoming from the University…
George Selgin on the New Deal and Recovery (and Relief and Reform)
17 Nov 2023 Leave a comment
in Austrian economics, business cycles, economics of education, Euro crisis, F.A. Hayek, global financial crisis (GFC), great depression, great recession, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, Milton Friedman, monetarism, monetary economics
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is the episode description: Jennifer Burns is a professor history at Stanford who works at the intersection of intellectual, political, and cultural history. She’s written two biographies Tyler highly recommends: her 2009 book, Goddess of the Market: Ayn Rand and the American Right and her latest, Milton Friedman: The […]
My Conversation with the excellent Jennifer Burns
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