International Comparisons with a PPP Metric

If you are someone from a high-income country, or even just a high-income city, and you travel to other places, you are familiar with finding that, at least sometimes, many items are considerably cheaper in the low-income country: food and meals, entertainment and even health care. As a result, $100 of buying power in the…

International Comparisons with a PPP Metric

Monetary Policy and the Great Crash of 1929: A Bursting Bubble or Collapsing Fundamentals?

By Timothy Cogley. He was then at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1999). He is now at New York University. “In recent years, a number of economists have expressed concern that the stock market is overvalued. Some have compared the situation with the 1920s, warning that the market may be headed for a…

Monetary Policy and the Great Crash of 1929: A Bursting Bubble or Collapsing Fundamentals?

Leftists Against Growth: Honest, but Wrong

Just as trend lines are important for fiscal policy, they are perhaps even more important when looking at economic performance. Even small difference in annual growth rates, for instance, can lead to big changes in prosperity within a couple of decades. And enormous changes over longer periods of time. All of which explains why I’m […]

Leftists Against Growth: Honest, but Wrong

Comparing Treasury and Reserve Bank forecasts

I put a range of charts on Twitter late last week illustrating why, from a macroeconomic perspective, I found the government’s Budget deeply underwhelming. I won’t repeat them but will just show two here. The first is the Treasury’s estimate of how the bit of the operating deficit not explained just by swings in the […]

Comparing Treasury and Reserve Bank forecasts

MPS

There is still reason to hope despite the fact that more than three-quarters of Americans say the United States is headed in the wrong direction

See The Case for Hope by Nicholas Kristof of The NY Times. Excerpts:”whenever I hear that America has never been such a mess or so divided, I think not just of the Civil War but of my own childhood: the assassinations of the 1960s; the riots; the murders of civil rights workers; the curses directed at…

There is still reason to hope despite the fact that more than three-quarters of Americans say the United States is headed in the wrong direction

The Treasury and productivity

Late last week The Treasury released a new 40 page report on “The productivity slowdown: implications for the Treasury’s forecasts and projections” (productivity forecasts and projections that is, rather than any possible fiscal implications – the latter will, I guess, be articulated in the Budget documents). In short, if (as it has) productivity growth has slowed down […]

The Treasury and productivity

Dishonest Pimping for a Global Wealth-Tax Cartel

Everything you need to know about wealth taxation can be summarized in two sentences. The biggest problem with most tax systems is the pervasive tax bias against income that is saved and invested, which discourages the accumulation of capital that helps to finance future growth. Wealth taxes would dramatically increase the tax bias against saving […]

Dishonest Pimping for a Global Wealth-Tax Cartel

More Good Results from Argentina

The most important election of 2023 took place in Argentina, where that nation’s voters elected the libertarian candidate, Javier Milei, as their new president. I discussed the outlook for Milei’s agenda on a recent appearance of the Schilling Show. Here’s a brief excerpt. As you can see, I’m worried that Milei faces enormous obstacles. Argentina […]

More Good Results from Argentina

Why the Global Free Market Will Save the World

“The Simple Macroeconomics of AI”

That is the new Daron Acemoglu paper, and he is skeptical about its overall economic effects.  Here is part of the abstract: Using existing estimates on exposure to AI and productivity improvements at the task level, these macroeconomic effects appear nontrivial but modest—no more than a 0.71% increase in total factor productivity over 10 years.…

“The Simple Macroeconomics of AI”

Productivity Syndrome and the Investment Prescription

Economic productivity is about growing the size of the pie. I sometimes point out that no matter what your goal–spending increases, tax cuts, greater support for the poor, environmental protection–that goal is easier when the economic pie is growing. When the economic pie isn’t growing, after all, then all priorities have to pit potential winners…

Productivity Syndrome and the Investment Prescription

How credible is the Milei plan?

Here is a good Substack essay by Nicolas Cachanosky, excerpt: Inflation expectations depend on what is expected to happen to the budget in the months to come. It is natural, then, to ask whether the observed surpluses are sustainable in the months ahead. Answering this question requires looking at two things. First, how was the fiscal […]

How credible is the Milei plan?

Eat the Rich: Warren Plan Would Impose Wealth Tax, Captivity Tax, and $100 Billion for Increasing Tax Audits

The wealth tax is back.  We have previously discussed the constitutional and policy concerns surrounding the push by Democrats like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to introduce a wealth tax that would start with billionaires. It would not likely end there. The law would also apply the same type of California approach to wealthy families […]

Eat the Rich: Warren Plan Would Impose Wealth Tax, Captivity Tax, and $100 Billion for Increasing Tax Audits

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