Climate models have a volcano problem

oldbrew's avatarTallbloke's Talkshop

Volcanic eruption
At least they now know about it. In tests, ‘inclusion of the eruptions degraded the model’s predictive capabilities’.
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Simulated volcanic eruptions may be blowing up our ability to predict near-term climate, according to a new study published in Science Advances.

The research, led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), finds that the way volcanic eruptions are represented in climate models may be masking the models’ ability to accurately predict variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific that unfold over multiple years to a decade, says Phys.org.

These decadal variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are linked to climate impacts across the globe, including variations in precipitation and severe weather.

Accurate predictions, therefore, could provide community leaders, farmers, water managers, and others with critical climate information that allows them to plan years in advance.

“Near-term climate prediction on…

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The Meat Grinder at Verdun – Brusilov’s New Plan I THE GREAT WAR Week 90

Christian Denominations Family Tree | Episode 3: Anglicans, Lutherans & Reformed

The Doomed Arctic Balloon Expedition That Vanished For 30 Years

Maps

Warning to electric car owners as thieving gangs target home chargers – leaving motorists £700 out of pocket

A Good Year for Milton Friedman = a Bad Year for Teacher Unions

Dan Mitchell's avatarInternational Liberty

Back in 2013, I shared some research showing how school choice produced good results. Not just in terms of student achievement, but also benefits for taxpayers as well.

Since then, I’ve shared additional research showing how school choice generates good outcomes.

It seems that some lawmakers have learned the right lessons from these studies. Over the past three years, statewide school choice has been enacted in West VirginiaArizonaIowa, Utah, Arkansas, and Florida.

In his Wall Street Journal column, Bill McGurn celebrates this wave of victories.

It’s been a good year for Milton Friedman. The Nobel Prize-winning economist has been dead for nearly two decades. But the moment has come for the idea that may prove his greatest legacy: Parents should decide where the public funds for educating their children go. Already this year, four states have adopted school choice for everyone—and it’s…

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Solar maximum may arrive later this year, say researchers

oldbrew's avatarTallbloke's Talkshop

Sunspots [image credit: NASA]
Nothing better than actual observations to make a forecast change. The sun may have put one over the pundits again.
– – –
Solar Maximum is coming–maybe this year, says Spaceweather.com.

New research by a leading group of solar physicists predicts maximum sunspot activity in late 2023 or early 2024, a full year earlier than other forecasts.

“This is based on our work with the Termination Event,” explains Scott McIntosh, lead author of a paper describing the prediction, published in the January 2023 edition of Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences.

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The Greatest Trial The World Has Ever Seen | Ben Ferencz | TEDxTeen

Buchenwald Liberated

Net zero subsidies are a disaster for Britain

Passion & Power: Clever Communities Hate Industrial Wind Power And They Fight Back

stopthesethings's avatarSTOP THESE THINGS

Rural communities are fighting back hard against the great wind power fraud, wherever the wind industry seeks to ply its subsidy-soaked trade.

Wherever wind farms have appeared – or have been threatened – big numbers of locals take a set against the monsters being speared into their previously peaceful – and often idyllic – rural communities.

Their anger extends to the goons that lied their way to development approval – and the bent officials that rubber-stamped their applications and who, thereafter, help the operators ride roughshod over locals’ rights to live in and enjoy the peace and comfort of their own homes and properties (see our post here).

As wind turbines are incapable of generating power on demand and wouldn’t last a second without massive subsidies, there is no ‘right’ place for them. Any power generation source that can’t deliver electricity on demand is pointless, so talk about appropriate…

View original post 941 more words

Norway’s Self-Destructive Wealth Tax

Dan Mitchell's avatarInternational Liberty

The economic argument against wealth taxation is very straightforward.

Such a levy is akin to a very high marginal tax rate on saving and investment.

Indeed, it’s quite possible that the effective tax rate would exceed 100 percent.

That definitely penalizes capital formation, which ultimately means workers will earn less money.

There’s also a practical argument against wealth taxation, which is based on the daunting challenge of revaluing assets every year.

There’s a competitiveness argument as well, and that’s our topic today.

Simply stated, rich people are not sheep, patiently waiting to be sheared. If their fiscal torture is too extreme, they will leave.

And this is not just theorizing.

In an article for the U.K.-based Telegraph, reports on how Norway’s higher wealth tax is backfiring.

Mr Røkke, an industrial tycoon with an estimated net worth of Nkr 19.6bn (£1.5bn), is among 50 billionaires and millionaires…

View original post 443 more words

The OECD’s minimum tax plan is dangerous showboating

julianhjessop's avatarPlain-speaking Economics

On Wednesday, Liz Truss will use the Margaret Thatcher memorial lecture in Washington to call the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) a “global cartel of complacency” whose high tax policies are holding back growth. I fear she is right.

In particular, Ms Truss will warn against the OECD’s plan for a minimum 15 per cent corporation tax rate for multinational companies, which is due to come into effect at the start of 2024. This plan is both wrong in principle and will be very hard to operate in practice.

To recap, 138 countries have now signed up to a global agreement which is designed to ‘modernise’ the international tax system. The main target is ‘profit shifting’, where companies book profits in jurisdictions where tax rates are lower.

This agreement has two elements, or ‘Pillars’. Under ‘Pillar 1’, the largest and most profitable multinationals will be required to pay…

View original post 907 more words

Creative destruction

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