The power of ordinary citizens to effect change when there is federalism and upper houses

The latest counting in the New South Wales Legislative Council election shows the ease in which ordinary citizens can form a political party and be elected to Parliament when there is federalism and an upper house elected by proportional representation.

Five of the six Australian states have an upper house. In four of those states, the electoral system is proportional representation, with results in the election of many small parties.

In Tasmania, my home state, the Legislative Council as single member constituencies with two or three vacancies filled every year but is full of independents elected the six-year terms. The political parties having no chance of getting candidates elected in front of them. The Tasmanian voters simply don’t vote for party candidates in the Legislative Council elections. Out of 15 members, there is one Liberal Party member, and two members from the Labour Party

In the current New South Wales Legislative Council election, the favourite to win the last seat, and with it the balance of power in the upper house is a previously unheard of No Land Tax party. The Shooters and Fishers party is electing another member this year in New South Wales. The Christian Democrats also have two members.

In Victoria, the Australian Sex Party finally got a candidate elected to the upper house late last year through the courtesy of proportional representation.

Other small parties in the Victorian Legislative Council are the Shooters and Fishers Party with two members, the Democratic Labour Party with one member and a party of never heard of, Vote 1 Local Jobs, with the last seat. These small parties share the balance of power.

The South Australian Legislative Council includes two members from the No Pokies Party, two members from the Family First Party, and one from the Death with Dignity party. Again, this motley crew shares the balance of power.

Western Australian Legislative Council has a government majority, but there is one member from the Shooters and Fishers Party.

The crossbench in the Australian Senate is made up of eight independents and small parties. Several Australian senators on the crossbenchers are completely mad and ignorant; in one certain case, as thick as two short planks. This doesn’t harm, in the case of Jackie Lambie, her chances of being re-elected to the Senate for Tasmania for another six-year term in 2019. A number of Tasmanian voters, including members of my family, value her honesty, though they do admit she is not very bright and is rather rough around the edges.

The strength of democracy lies in the ability of small groups of concerned and thoughtful citizens to band together and change things by running for office and winning elections. That is how new Australian parties such as the ALP, the country party, DLP, Australian democrats and Greens changed Australia. One Nation even had its 15 minutes of fame. Most of these parties started in someone’s living room, full of concerned citizens aggrieved with the status quo.

In Australian elections in recent years, about a quarter of the electorate do not give their vote in upper house selections to the major parties: the Labour Party, the Liberal Party and the Australian Greens. That is fertile ground for small parties to flourish.

So fertile ground is the Australian Senate that the big parties want to change the election system to make it harder for the small parties to swap preferences to get elected through proportional representation and make it much harder to register a political party in the first place.

As would be expected, the far left parties get nowhere in the upper houses of the Australian State parliaments, despite the benefits of proportional representation and preferential voting. These upper houses are filled with small parties from both the left and the right, populist parties all, but the battle cry of socialism just doesn’t resonate with the Australian electorate.

Same thing happened in New Zealand in its recent parliamentary elections. New Zealand has no upper house, but does have proportional representation for the House of Representatives.

A pre-existing hard left party well-funded by a millionaire with an agenda to avoid extradition to the USA got 1.2% of the party vote, but it lost its electorate seat and so is out of Parliament since late last year’s general election.

Dilbert on the New Zealand Parliamentary junket to Europe

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Low incomes don’t matter much to cell phone and smart phone access for teens

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Gordon Tulloch explains the agent principal problem

Every-man-is-an

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Capitalism and freedom is noticeably missing from this survey of UN effectiveness

People forget California is pretty much a desert, yet it is a major producer of fruit and vegetables

Gordon Tullock on why popular revolutions are rare

Gordon Tullock Preventing-overthrow-by

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Gordon Tullock on why monarchies emerged

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Gordon Tullock on the fall of the Berlin Wall

Gordon Tullock fall of the Berlin wall

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19 incumbent African leaders have been defeated at the polls

Gordon Tullock on why popular revolutions are rare indeed

Gordon Tullock efficient secret police

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Gordon Tullock on a key dynamic in the Arab spring

Gordon Tullock on remaining mutual

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Symposium on Bryan Caplan’s The Myth of the Rational Voter

https://youtu.be/k1pZHPIS8og?t=10

Recorded at Public Choice Society Meeting, March 7, 2008, San Antonio, TX.

  • Chair: Randall Holcombe (Florida State University)
  • Participants: Michael C Munger (Duke University)
  • Art Carden (Rhodes College)
  • Geoffrey Brennan (Australia National University)
  • Bryan Caplan (George Mason University)

Who has the smallest Anglo-Saxon welfare state of them all?

I have reanalysed data published by the Peterson Institute on the true levels of social expenditure across the industrialised countries for the Anglo-Saxon countries.

Figure 1: gross public social expenditures in OECD countries, 2011

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Source: POLICY BRIEF 15-4: The True Levels of Government and Social Expenditures in Advanced Economies.

When you just look at gross public social expenditure, New Zealand is in the middle of the pack with the United Kingdom having the largest spending. There are not particularly large differences across social spending in the Anglo-Saxon welfare states.

Figure 2:  Gross public social expenditure and the effects of taxation in OECD countries, 2011

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Source: POLICY BRIEF 15-4: The True Levels of Government and Social Expenditures in Advanced Economies.

There is not much change when you include the effects of taxation on consumption by benefit recipients.

Figure 3: Net after-tax public and private social expenditure in OECD countries, 2011

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Source: POLICY BRIEF 15-4: The True Levels of Government and Social Expenditures in Advanced Economies.

When private mandatory social spending is included, such as employer sponsored health cover, there is considerable change with United States leaping to the front and New Zealand dropping to the bottom. The USA has the largest and most expensive is health sector in the world so they are leaping of the front, either because healthcare is expensive in United States or people in the United States are not constrained by government rationing to spend less than they would prefer on their own healthcare. Let’s leave that war of ideas for another day.

Figure 4: Net after-tax total social expenditures in OECD countries, 2011

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Source: POLICY BRIEF 15-4: The True Levels of Government and Social Expenditures in Advanced Economies.

On the face of it, New Zealand has the smallest Anglo-Saxon welfare state while the United States has the largest. A more accurate measure of the relative sizes of these Anglo-Saxon welfare states would require the wisdom of Solomon in measuring waste and underfunding in the respective systems and more trust than you should have in services sector in purchasing power parity adjustments.

For those that are interested, the OECD-wide gross social spending and net after-tax total social spending are reproduced below in figures 5 and 6.

Figure 5: Net after-tax total social expenditures in OECD countries, 2011

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Source: POLICY BRIEF 15-4: The True Levels of Government and Social Expenditures in Advanced Economies.

The Figure 5 data on the OECD wide welfare state sizes shows that when you add private spending, including social spending mandated by law, the US has the second largest OECD social safety net as Kirkegaard said in his  Peterson Institute paper:

Taking the full effects of tax systems and social spending from both private and public sources into account, the United States is seen to be devoting more resources toward social purposes than is generally acknowledged. In fact, only the French spend more than Americans, while the alleged welfare-addicted Scandinavians and Europeans spend less on average.

Figure 6: Gross public social expenditures in OECD countries, 2011

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Source: POLICY BRIEF 15-4: The True Levels of Government and Social Expenditures in Advanced Economies.

Via The US welfare state and safety net are bigger than you think. But who are they helping? – AEI | Pethokoukis Blog » AEIdeas and POLICY BRIEF 15-4: The True Levels of Government and Social Expenditures in Advanced Economies

Gordon Tullock explains his theory of popular revolutions and palace coups

[I]n most revolutions, the people who overthrow the existing government were high officials in that government before the revolution.

If they were deeply depressed by the nature of the previous government’s policies, it seems unlikely that they could have given enough cooperation in those policies to have risen to high rank. People who hold high, but not supreme, rank in a despotism are less likely to be unhappy with the policy of that despotism than are people who are outside the government.

Thus, if we believed in the public good motivation of revolutions, we would anticipate that these high officials would be less likely than outsiders to attempt to overthrow the government.

From the private benefit theory of revolutions, however, the contrary deduction would be drawn. The largest profits from revolution are apt to come to those people who are (a) most likely to end up at the head of the government, and (b) most likely to be successful in overthrow of the existing government. They have the highest present discounted gain from the revolution and lowest present discounted cost.

Thus, from the private goods theory of revolution, we would anticipate senior officials who have a particularly good chance of success in overthrowing the government and a fair certainty of being at high rank in the new government, if they are successful, to be the most common type of revolutionaries.

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