How will @nzlabour @NZGreens ration their 100,000 affordable homes?

The Labour Party (and Greens) both plan to build 100,000 affordable homes and sell them within a specific price range. In Auckland, where houses cost in excess of $800,000 on average, they hope to enter the market at the $550,000 point with still quite reasonable housing.

What I ask you is how will Labour and the Greens make sure the affordable houses both are proposing are not snapped up by well-to-do buyers rather than families currently locked out of the market? What will the rationing mechanism be?

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Source: KiwiBuild – New Zealand Labour Party.

How will Labour  and the Greens ration these desirable houses given that they are priced well below the competition? If two buyers both offer $550,000 for the house, which bid will be accepted?

If the next best available house in Auckland is worth more than that because it is not sold by the proposed Housing Affordability Authority, the first bid for these houses will be $550,000 which is the maximum the government under a Labour Party is willing to accept? What happens then? 

It is basic economics that if you price at less than the market clearing rate which in Auckland is somewhere near $800,000, people will queue to buy what you have unless you raise the price. The exercise of building 100,000 affordable houses makes no sense unless the purpose is to undercut what the market currently supplies.

As the houses are to be sold by a government agency, there can be no black market nor dilution of quality to even up supply with demand. How will a deadlock in price bids be resolved if the maximum bid for an affordable house starts at $550,000?

Labour acknowledges the possibility of flipping by restricting resale for 5 years. But what stops investors just waiting 5 years as there is any significant price gap between these affordable houses and the private market alternatives.

What stops more affluent buyers living in these houses because they so much cheaper than the competing options in Auckland? If you miss out in bidding on one affordable home, do you go back to the end of the queue for the next that is built or get some priority?

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But @EleanorAingeRoy child poverty has not changed much in 20 years

Today in the Guardian writing on trends in family poverty New Zealand, Eleanor Roy said that

The fact that twice as many children now live below the poverty line than did in 1984 has become New Zealand’s most shameful statistic.

Roy goes back to the 1980s as her base because child poverty has not gone up or down by that much since that sharp rise in the late 1980s.

Child poverty among single-parent households has doubled since 1990 and tripled since 1988. Poverty in families with two parents present is not much higher now than it was in 1988. 

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Source: Bryan Perry, Household Incomes in New Zealand: trends in indicators of inequality and hardship 1982 to 2014 – Ministry of Social Development, Wellington (August 2015), Table H.4.

Child poverty rates among single-parent families that live with other adults is one-quarter that of single-parent families who live alone. The reasons behind that should be explored more by those concerned with child poverty.

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Source: Bryan Perry, Household Incomes in New Zealand: trends in indicators of inequality and hardship 1982 to 2013 – Ministry of Social Development, Wellington (2014), Tables F.6 and F.7.

The evidence is overwhelming that the main driver of the increases in the child poverty since the 1980s is rising housing costs.

In the longer run, after housing costs child poverty rates in 2013 were close to double what they were in the late 1980s mainly because housing costs in 2013 were much higher relative to income than they were in the late 1980s.

– Bryan Perry, 2014 Household Incomes Report – Key Findings. Ministry of Social Development (July 2014).

Any policy to reduce child poverty must increase the supply of houses by reducing regulatory restrictions on the supply of land.

Rather than blame the callousness of government in accepting higher rates of child poverty, Roy should blame its inability to take on the restrictions on land supply in the Resource Management Act that drive up housing costs for the poor. Increased child poverty in New Zealand is a by-product of housing unaffordability.

Real Growth in US Housing Prices since 1890

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Where will land come from 4 @NZGreens housing plan? @GarethMP

The Greens are at it again proposing to build 100,000 affordable houses without ever explaining where the additional new land will come from.

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There would have to be an amendment to the proposed Auckland unitary plan to free up more land for there to be a net increase in the supply of land in Auckland.

Unless there is that such amendment, a government plan to build 100,000 affordable houses in Auckland and elsewhere will simply be competing for the same fixed supply of land. If the supply of land is constrained from expanding by much, the only thing that will happen is that the price will go up with more money chasing the same amount of land and housing.

@metiria house prices won’t drop 40% by raising taxes, banning foreigners

Just increase the supply of land. Extending the capital gains tax and banning foreigners from buying land will do no good. An average house price 10 times the average income in Auckland is not a demand-side problem.

Source: Is Your Town Building Enough Housing? – Trulia’s Blog.

There are plenty of examples of US cities with different land supply restrictions but common national surges in demand for housing such as prior to the GFC. Cities with liberal land supply experienced only small increases in house prices.

Source: Regionally, Housing Rebound Depends on Jobs, Local Supply Tightness – The Long-Awaited Housing Recovery – 2013 Annual Report – Dallas Fed from Federal Housing Finance Agency; Bureau of Economic Analysis; “The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply,” by Albert Saiz, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 125, no. 3, 2010, pp. 1253–96.

The Greens should follow ACT and the Labour Party in calling for the abolition of the Auckland urban limit and changes in council finances so they can fund the necessary infrastructure quickly.

US, Australian and NZ real house prices, March 1975 to March 2016

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Source: International House Price Database – Dallas Fed.

German, French, British, and US real housing prices, March 1975 to March 2016

Still have not seen a decent explanation for why German housing prices seem to fall for decades on the trot.

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Source: International House Price Database – Dallas Fed.

.@NZlabour wants to crash house prices! @NZGreens take on the NIMBYs! @PhilTwyford

There has been an unexpected outbreak of political courage on the left of New Zealand politics.

The Labour Party wants to crash housing prices by not only abolishing the Auckland urban limit, but ensuring councils can fund the necessary infrastructure to bring new land to the market:

Labour will remove the Auckland urban growth boundary and free up density controls. This will give Auckland more options to grow, as well as stopping land bankers profiteering and holding up development. New developments, both in Auckland and the rest of New Zealand, will be funded through innovative infrastructure bonds.

In response, the Greens want to take on the inner city NIMBYs by greatly increasing housing density and new developments in their pristine suburbs

Like Labour, we believe that people should have a choice about where they live. But a lot of people want to live close to the central city where they work or study. That means delivering more high-quality, inner city housing options, not endless sprawling new suburbs.

It’s often easier and cheaper to revitalise central suburbs than it is to build new suburbs on the city fringes. Infrastructure for new sprawling subdivisions is very expensive.

This outbreak of courage is surprising after the resolute opposition of these parties to any reform of the Resource Management Act to loosen up the land supply.

It is a breakthrough nonetheless because at least the Labour Party admits that housing affordability is about increasing land supply by removing the Auckland urban limit.

New Zealand tops world in growth in the housing price to income ratio

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Source: IMF Global Housing Watch.

New Zealand tops the developed world in housing price growth in 2015

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Source: IMF Global Housing Watch.

If it was 2007 again, what would @jamespeshaw @PhilTwyford do on housing affordability?

Source: Housing ‘challenge’ still not a ‘crisis’ | Radio New Zealand News.

Neither Labour nor the Greens have explained where the new land will come from inside the Auckland Metropolitan Limit to build their 100,000 additional houses nor why their proposals will be granted resource consents under existing resource management legislation.

The National Party is unwilling to push shared with resource management law reform despite having 61 votes to do so because of fear of losing votes in the centre.

Meet San Francisco’s YIMBYs @PhilTwyford @dbseymour

Desperately seeking to agree with @JulieAnneGenter on transport investment quality

I just wrote an op-ed for National Business Review online (pay-walled) agreeing with an op-ed last week by Green MP Julie Anne Genter on transport investment. My op-ed started

The Taxpayers’ Union welcomes the commitment of the Green Party yesterday to evaluating transport investments without any bias or favouritism to one transport mode over another.

The Taxpayers’ Union could not agree more with Julie Anne Genter when she said that the question ministers should always ask is “what is the best investment we can make?”

This op-ed was my rejoinder to her reply to my op-ed criticising a recent Green Party on national freight policy. That policy called for 25% of all freight by kilometres travelled to each go by rail and road. That would near double their freight market share from 30% currently to 50% when measured by kilometre.

For my troubles I got nothing but criticism and accusations in the comments section in National Business Review Online. A tweet by Genter was far more gracious.

There was no praise in the comment section at the National Business Review online for agreeing with the Green policy. In the first comment I was told I did not understand economics and that

When the policy default is “cut taxes and spending and let me selfishly keep my money” they miss out on the much larger benefit to everyone, including themselves, by nudging or economy to spend more on intrinsically more efficient transport – like rail – and less on alternatives.

No thanks at all for agreeing that transport investments should be the best we can make. After saying that in their recent freight policy, the Greens set targets were specific transport technologies they favour, which are rail and sea freight. 

You cannot argue that transport investments should be the best we can make then declare a preference for a particular technology or mode of transport. But let us not quibble over that glaring contradiction.

The broader principle was agreed which is transport investments should be driven by cost benefit analysis and value for money. It should be technology neutral and transport mode neutral. That, of course, means the Greens cannot declare targets for the market shares of particular modes of freight shipment if they want to follow their own policy about value for money.

NZ House price index for selected territorial authority areas, 1989–2014

Source: Changes in home-ownership patterns 1986–2013: Focus on Māori and Pacific people.

Homeless means living rough or in a car @DavidReiMiller @greencatherine @secondzeit

Statistics New Zealand spent 21 pages trying to define the term homeless. How Orwellian.

When I first moved to Canberra and when I moved back, I stayed with friends. Some regard that as being homeless under the Statistics New Zealand definition, much to my own surprise.

I qualify because I shared accommodation . Having shared or short-term accommodation is not homeless. The descriptions shared and short-term accommodation quite adequate to the task.

People living in temporary accommodation including with friends are not homeless. Their situation is unsatisfactory but describing it does not justify butchering the English language by conflating their inconveniences with the few hundred people who live rough each night.

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Source: New Zealand Parliament – Homelessness in New Zealand.

Those that conflate having a roof over your head tonight with living rough take advantage of the great sympathy people have for those living rough for people in far less dire situations.

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