Did the rich get richer under Rogernomics? New Zealand top income shares since 1921

Apart from a bump in the late 80s, the top income earners in New Zealand really are not doing much better than they were in the 1950s or 1920s. The rich are not getting richer in New Zealand. They are just holding their own.

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Source: The World Wealth and Income Database.

The New Zealand top 1% is still bone lazy – top 1% income shares USA, New Zealand and Australia since 1913

What slackers. Despite 30 years of neoliberalism oppressing the unions and working class, the top 1% in New Zealand (and Australia) are unable to do any better in terms of their share of national income than in the good old days of pre-1984 New Zealand looked upon with such fondness by the the Leftover Left.

image

Source: The World Wealth and Income Database.

NZ real household incomes up 55% since 1994 but no dancing in the street by the Leftover Left

https://twitter.com/sbancel/status/654162844884205568

Pakeha and Pasifika real household incomes increased by 55% since the low point of 1994. Maori household incomes increased by 65% since 1994.

image

Source: Bryan Perry, Household Incomes in New Zealand: trends in indicators of inequality and hardship 1982 to 2014 – Ministry of Social Development, Wellington (August 2015), Table D.6.

Rooms per person across the OECD member countries

There are quite large differences in the number of rooms per person in the European offshoots and the countries in Europe. Americans have much more room per person than the much exalted welfare states of northern Europe.

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Source:  OECD Better Life Index  – Data extracted on 07 Jan 2016 06:55 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat

Adam Smith versus Jamie Whyte or is there poverty on the Starship Enterprise?

Jamie Whyte today wrote an excellent op-ed on the meaninglessness of current measures of poverty. His point was that defining poverty as 60% of the median income means the poor will always be with us. This relative definition of poverty misleads us as to the level of hardship and deprivation in society as Jamie Whyte says today:

There is no poverty in New Zealand. Misery, depravity, hopelessness, yes; but no poverty.

The poorest in New Zealand are the unemployed. They receive free medical care, free education for their children and enough cash to pay for basic food, clothing and (subsidised) housing. Most have televisions, refrigerators and ovens. Many even own cars. That isn’t poverty.

I agree that this definition of poverty in relative income terms is misleading and reflects a political agenda. When I was young, the poor were thin, now they are fat.

Poverty rates have not changed despite a greater abundance of food. Indeed, child poverty rates have increased since I was young despite this relative opulence of food.

Over the Christmas break I read Simon Chapple and Jonathan Boston’s Child Poverty in New Zealand. They included a discussion of what was poverty drawing on the relative concept of poverty of Adam Smith. Smith spoke about wrote about the differences in poverty between countries and across time:

A linen shirt … is, strictly speaking, not a necessary of life. The Greeks and Romans lived, I suppose, very comfortably though they had no linen.

But in the present times, through the greater part of Europe, a creditable day-labourer would be ashamed to appear in public without a linen shirt, the want of which would be supposed to denote that disgraceful degree of poverty which, it is presumed, nobody can well fall into without extreme bad conduct.

In any society, a certain level of material well-being is necessary to not be in poverty. Smith also talked about how poverty lines differ between countries starting with the discussion about shoes:

The poorest creditable person of either sex would be ashamed to appear in publick without them. In Scotland, custom has rendered them a necessary of life to the lowest order of men; but not to the same order of women, who may, without any discredit, walk about bare-footed. In France, they are necessaries neither necessaries neither to men nor to women; the lowest rank of both sexes appear there publickly, without any discredit, sometimes in wooden shoes, and sometimes bare-footed.

Under necessaries, I comprehend, not only those things which nature, but those things which the established rules of decency have rendered necessary to the lowest rank of people.

All other things I shall call luxuries; without meaning by this appellation, to throw the smallest degree of reproach upon the temperate use of them. Beer and ale, for example, in Great Britain, and wine, even in the wine countries, I call luxuries. A man of any rank may, without any reproach, abstain totally from tasting such liquors. Nature does not render them necessary for the support of life; and custom nowhere renders it indecent to live without them.

Much of the Wealth of Nations was about the natural progress of opulence under a capitalist system. There is nothing wrong with inequality as John Rawls has explained.


The fact that citizens have different talents can be used to make everyone better off. In a society governed by the difference principle, those better endowed with talents are welcome to use their gifts to make themselves better off, so long as they also contribute to the good of those less well endowed.


With his emphasis on fair distribution of income, Rawls’ initial appeal was to the Left, but left-wing thinkers started to dislike his acceptance of capitalism and tolerance of large discrepancies in income.

Will the poor always be with us? I once had an argument with a colleague at work about whether there was poverty on the Starship Enterprise.

Star Trek was supposed to be a society that had abolished money and a post-scarcity economy because everything was available through a replicator. To quote Captain Picard:

A lot has changed in three hundred years. People are no longer obsessed with the accumulation of ‘things’. We have eliminated hunger, want, the need for possessions.

The economics of the future is somewhat different. You see, money doesn’t exist in the 24th century… The acquisition of wealth is no longer the driving force in our lives. We work to better ourselves and the rest of Humanity.

The Ferengi and their 285 rules of acquisition were a satire on capitalism. The Ferengi was originally meant to replace the Klingons as the Federation’s arch-rival but they were too comical.

Gene Roddenberry’s love story with socialism was a class-ridden society. In Star Trek, higher ranked officers had larger cabins, and most of all they always beamed back from the planet.

An old mate reminded me years ago that anyone who beamed down with Captain Kirk dressed in those red security officer tops were expendables. They were lucky to last 60 seconds in most episodes I watched.

Death and accommodation were class based on Star Trek but it was a supremely opulent society for everyone. That is the point to remember.

Standards are living are much better today than before for everyone despite inequalities that are quite acceptable under the difference principle of John Rawls.

Current definitions of poverty do not take into account the natural progress of opulence. In the 1970s, US Department of Energy started collecting its Household Energy Consumption Survey. This survey is one of the few accurate measures of growing affluence among the poor in America.

Not only does this survey ask about household appliances, it asked about on income. The survey is conducted every 4 years or so since the 1970s. Because of that, it is able to track the diffusion of appliances to households of varying incomes across America.

Yesterday’s luxuries at today’s necessities in poor households with a rapid diffusion of everything from air-conditioners to digital appliances. Many poor households in the USA have more space than middle-class households in Western Europe. Food is also much cheaper in the USA than in Europe.

https://twitter.com/VisualEcon/status/644080191841640448

This growing affluence of poorer Americans is despite higher measured family poverty in America according to the relative poverty measure based on the median income. That makes no sense.

@NZGreens are anti-science through and through

The commitment of the Greens to credible science is dropped like a stone when they discuss fluoridation.

The Greens are no less cranky when it comes to GMOs.

The Greens sacrifice what little scientific credibility they have left by not having a position on vaccinations and vaccine safety. I could not find any reference to it in their policy documents online.

https://twitter.com/KevinHague/status/642505850360213505

The Green Party health spokesman Kevin Hague has stated the Greens support of parents’ rights to choose which vaccine(s) (if any) their children receive without financial penalties.

@GarethMorgannz is repeating Bob Hawke’s mistake that child poverty can be solved by more money

Jess Berentson-Shaw’s series on child poverty in the Dominion Post on child poverty had two major flaws. She argues that the solution to child poverty is to give more families more money.

The first flaw is she does not discuss previous failed attempts to solve poverty with more money. For example, Bob Hawke promised in the 1987 election that no child need live in poverty by 1990. Raising the family allowance to $1 above the family poverty line did not fix child poverty. That promise was the one Hawke later said he regretted most in his public life.

During the 1987 Australian Federal election campaign, Labour Party Prime Minister Bob Hawke announced a Family Allowance Supplement that would ensure no Australian child need live in poverty by 1990. These changes in social welfare benefits and family allowance supplements would ensure that every family would be paid one per week dollar more than the poverty threshold applicable to their family situation. I know child poverty was to be done in this way because I worked in the Prime Minister’s Department at this time.

About 580,000 Australian children lived in poverty in 1987. In 2007, at least 13 per cent of children, or 730,000 people, were poor. This was after social welfare benefits and family allowance supplements were increased to $1 above the child poverty threshold.

There is an infallible test of the practicality of Left over Left dreams such as the abolition of child poverty by writing bigger and bigger cheques to those currently poor.

If you could abolish child poverty simply by increasing welfare benefits and family allowances, the centre-right parties would be all over it like flies to the proverbial as a way of camping over the middle ground and winning the votes of socially conscious swinging voters for decades to come. Many people who would naturally vote for the centre-right parties on all other issues vote for centre-left parties out of a concern for poverty and a belief that centre-left parties will give a better deal to the poor.

The notion that poverty is simply the result of a lack of money and giving people more money will abolish child poverty has never worked. As the OECD (2009, p. 171) observed:

It would be naïve to promote increasing the family income for children through the tax-transfer system as a cure-all to problems of child well-being.

Berentson-Shaw’s second major flaw is she does not discuss the success of the 1996 US federal welfare reforms. Any serious participant in discussions of child poverty must address those 1996 US reforms.

These reforms cut Hispanic and black child poverty rates by 1/3rd in a few years by moving single mothers into employment. Time limits on welfare for single parents reduced caseloads by two thirds, 90% in some states.

After the 1996 US Federal welfare reforms, the subsequent declines in welfare participation rates and gains in employment were largest among the single mothers previously thought to be most disadvantaged: young (ages 18-29), mothers with children aged under seven, high school drop-outs, and black and Hispanic mothers. These low-skilled single mothers were thought to face the greatest barriers to employment. Blank (2002) found that:

…nobody of any political persuasion predicted or would have believed possible the magnitude of change that occurred in the behaviour of low-income single-parent families.

Employment are never married mothers increased by 50% after the US well for a reforms: employment of single mothers with less than a high school education increased by two-thirds; and employment of single mothers aged 18 to 24 approximately doubled.

With the enactment of welfare reform in 1996, black child poverty fell by more than a quarter to 30% in 2001. Over a six-year period after welfare reform, 1.2 million black children were lifted out of poverty. In 2001, despite a recession, the poverty rate for black children was at the lowest point in national history.

The only modern welfare reforms to significantly cut child poverty were the US federal welfare reforms. They emphasised helping those who helped themselves, which is the classic Samaritans’ dilemma.

Countless studies show that when comparing the carrot and the stick in welfare reform, the stick is always more effective in reducing poverty and increasing employment.

The best solution to child poverty is to move their parents into a job. Simon Chapple is clear in his book last year with Jonathan Boston:

Sustained full-time employment of sole parents and the fulltime and part-time employment of two parents, even at low wages, are sufficient to pull the majority of children above most poverty lines, given the various existing tax credits and family supports.

The best available analysis, the most credible analysis, the most independent analysis in New Zealand or anywhere else in the world that having a job and marrying the father of your child is the secret to the leaving poverty is recently by the Living Wage movement in New Zealand.

According to the calculations of the Living Wage movement, earning only $19.25 per hour with a second earner working only 20 hours affords their two children, including a teenager, Sky TV, pets, annual international travel, video games and 10-hours childcare.

This analysis of the Living Wage movement shows that finishing school so your job pays something reasonable and marrying the father of your child affords a comfortable family life. In the USA this is called the success sequence.

Jason Furman on residential housing supply, NIMBYism, and economic growth

@EricCrampton @conradhackett the size of the New Zealand government since 1900

Oddly enough, the lost decades of New Zealand growth coincide with the rapid growth in the size of government between 1974 and 1992. The return of growth to New Zealand from 1992 after 17 years of stagnation and next to no real GDP growth coincided with the decline in the size of government.

Source: David Rea 2009.

Source: David Rea 2009.

@EricCrampton @conradhackett New Zealand government used to be much bigger and still is

Source: Data extracted on 04 Jan 2016 06:49 UTC (GMT) and 07:01 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat

The OECD calculations using general government expenditure lead to an estimate of the size of government in New Zealand that is at least 10 percentage points larger at times than when using core crown expenses or total taxes as a percentage of GDP. I once asked the Treasury why was this was so as they had plotted both core crown expenses and general government expenditures as a percentage of GDP in a chart. They did not know why.

Workplace fatalities by industry in New Zealand since 2010

Working in forestry and agriculture is dangerous in New Zealand. There are only about four and half thousand agricultural workers but five to 10 die every year. Agriculture is also relatively dangerous. The Pike River mining disaster killed 29 in 2010. Construction, a large industry, also has a number of fatalities.

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Source: Workplace fatalities by industry | Worksafe.

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Source: Workplace fatalities by industry | Worksafe.

.

Whose voting base has succumbed to unthinking populists?

https://www.facebook.com/WeAreCapitalists/photos/a.157549024416648.1073741826.157541337750750/474168992754648/?type=3&theater

How much lower is youth voter turnout across the OECD?

Young British really do vote a lot less than older British.

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Source: OECD Family Database – OECD.

@TransportBlog @JulieAnneGenter community outrage at new bike lane death trap in Island Bay

Source: Wellington’s Island Bay cycleway has left residents confused and angry | Stuff.co.nz.

We drove past this bicycle death trap in island Bay in Wellington the other weekend. The first thing I noticed is a lot of bicycle will be sideswiped as passengers in cars open their left door not expecting anybody to be there. The bike lane also narrows the road from buses. Residents now have a lot of trouble safely getting out of their houses without both are running over bicyclists and seeing oncoming cars. Further proof that bikes are a killer green technology.

Source: Wellington’s Island Bay cycleway has left residents confused and angry | Stuff.co.nz.

Part of the nonsense behind this death trap is that more people ride their bike if they can do so safely such as on this death trap according to the local mayor:

Wellington Mayor Celia Wade-Brown acknowledged the recent social media backlash – which she dubbed “bike-lash” – but was confident it would simmer down once the cycleway was complete.

She pointed to the council’s research, which showed 76 per cent of Wellingtonians would cycle more if cycling was safer.

“And I think a scientific survey is a clearer indication [of Wellingtonians’ views on the cycleway] than the number of social media likes or dislikes.”

Obviously our local mayor has not heard of the social acceptability bias that arises when answering questions about whether or whether not they are use fashionable forms of transport.

The number of people in Wellington taking a bicycle to work in Wellington is trivial. Three times as many walk to work as take a bike to work in Wellington.

Source: New Zealand Transport Agency.

The Twitter Left mantra as championed by the Greens and Transport Blog is that it would all be so much different we invested a little bit more in public transport is a myth.

The experience in Europe and North America is that if you make buses free, the cheapies that currently bike take the bus or train. In addition, the street people find it comfortable warm place to hang out when during the day which drives the regular customers away.

A 2002 report released by the National Center for Transportation Research indicated that the lack of fares attracted hordes of young people, who brought with them a culture of vandalism, graffiti, and bad behavior—which all necessitated costly maintenance. The lure of “free,” the report implied, attracted the “wrong” crowd—the “right” crowd, of course, being wealthier people with cars, who aren’t very sensitive to price changes.

@GarethMorgannz the universal basic income is inferior to the minimum family tax credit

Gareth Morgan’s universal basic income appears to make everybody better off except those for whom the modern welfare state was established to protect. Examples of these from his online calculator are single mothers and retirees.

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Source: The Big Kahuna – Tax and Welfare.

To stay even just with single mothers blows a good $10 billion hole in the budget deficit according to the online calculator provided by Gareth Morgan. Retirees are still worse off.

image

Source: The Big Kahuna – Tax and Welfare.

Central to the package is a comprehensive capital gains tax despite evidence growing with each day that the optimal tax rates on income from capital and on capital gains are zero.

A universal basic income for New Zealand is a long  trip to where we are now. There is already a guaranteed minimum family income in New Zealand.

The minimum family tax credit makes sure that a family’s annual income (net income after tax has been deducted) doesn’t fall below $23,036 a year ($443 per week). To qualify, you must  work for a salary or wage for at least 30 hours each week as a couple, or 20 hours each week as a single parent, and receive a family tax credit.

The Treasury modelled a Guaranteed Minimum income at the request of the Welfare Working Group in 2010. A  guaranteed minimum income  of $300 per week – the mean benefit income among those on benefits – would cost $44.5 billion or $52.6 billion if we extended it to super annuitants as a replacement for NZ Superannuation or old age pension. The former could be covered by a flat personal income tax rate of 45.4%; the latter, 48.6%. Full fiscal neutrality would require tax rates of 50.6% and 54.4%.

The universal basic income seems to be a big day out for Director’s Law of Public Expenditure. Director’s Law is public expenditure is used primary for the benefit of the middle class, and is financed with taxes which are borne in considerable part by the poor and the rich.

The universal basic income and a comprehensive capital gains tax seems to cause a lot of economic upheaval but still struggles to make the worse off groups in society even break-even on this throwing of all the cards in the air. Brian Easton put it well the other day when he said:

Many advocates put the UMI forward without doing the sums. Those who do, find that the required tax rates are horrendous or the minimum income is so low that it is not a viable means of eliminating poverty. Among the latter are New Zealanders Douglas, Gareth Morgan and Keith Rankin.

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