Can millionaires buy their way into Parliament? Lessons from the recent New Zealand election

Two millionaires, one on the left and one on the right, set up parties to get into Parliament in the recent New Zealand election. The millionaire of the left failed abysmally. The millionaire on the right made progress towards getting into Parliament in the 2017 election.

Each spent vast sums of money by New Zealand standards on their party:

  • Kim.com gave $4.5 million to his Internet – Mana party; and
  • Colin Craig gave about $1.5 million to his Conservative party with another millionaire giving $750,000 to the Conservative party.

By way of context, the maximum that a political party can spend on campaign expenses in the three months prior to the election is $1.1 million, plus $25,000 per electorate seat It is contesting. None of this is spent on radio and television advertising because this is allocated for free by the electoral commission based on previous election performance.

One of the major rationales for election finance regulation is to stop the rich buying elections by flooding the airways and billboards with their call to arms and buying politicians short of campaign donations:

Conventional wisdom holds that money plays a central and nefarious role in American politics.

Underlying this belief are two fundamental assumptions:

(1) elective offices are effectively sold to the highest bidder, and

(2) campaign contributions are the functional equivalent of bribes.

Campaign finance regulations are thus an attempt to hinder the operation of this political marketplace.

John Milyo

New Zealand is a good example of how difficult it is to buy votes if you’re underlying message does not work. This is a key point to remember.

The millionaire of the left, Kim.com, gave money to a far left party in New Zealand, recycled a couple of middle-aged lefties, ran a hard left campaign, and won all of 2000 extra party votes over last time out of electorate of about 2 million.

He came unstuck because his sitting electorate MP lost 3000 votes and lost his seat. If he had kept his seat, his party would have been also entitled to a List MP seat because his party won 1.3% of the party vote. Under the New Zealand system of mixed member proportional representation, if you win a seat in Parliament, you’re entitled to list seats to ensure that your representation in Parliament is equal to your party vote.

The millionaire of the right, Colin Craig, ran a socially conservative, economic nationalist campaign and won 4% of the vote. A party needs 5% of the party vote to get into Parliament if your party does not win an electorate seat.

Both of these parties that did not get into Parliament outspent the winning national party which won 60 of the 121 seats in Parliament.

The failure of Kim.com and Colin Craig to buy their way Parliament should be no surprise. Most systematic studies find no effect of marginal campaign spending on the electoral success of candidates.

For example, see Steven Levitt, “Using Repeat Challengers to Estimate the Effects of Campaign Spending on Electoral Outcomes in the U.S. House,” Journal of Political Economy 102 (1994): 777–798.

Levitt noted that previous studies of congressional spending have found a large positive effect of challenger spending, but little evidence for effects of incumbent spending. Those studies did not adequately control for inherent differences in vote-getting ability across candidates.

  • His paper examined elections in which the same two candidates face one another on more than one occasion; differencing eliminates the influence of any fixed candidate or district attributes.
  • His estimates of the effects of challenger spending are an order of magnitude below those of previous studies. Campaign spending has an extremely small impact on election outcomes, regardless of who does the spending.

Jeff Milyo also found that a more systematic analysis of the electoral fortunes of wealthy candidates found no significant association between electoral or fund-raising success and personal wealth. For example, see Jeffrey Milyo and Timothy Groseclose, “The Electoral Effects of Incumbent Wealth,” Journal of Law and Economics 42 (1999): 699–722.

A range of rich candidates have attempted to buy Senate seats and gubernatorial posts with little success if they were themselves unappealing candidates.

The best explanation to date for the minor effect of campaign spending on electoral success is competent candidates are adept at both convincing contributors to give money and convincing voters to give their vote.

The finding that campaign spending and electoral success are highly correlated exaggerates the importance of money to a candidate’s chances of winning.

Campaign donors give more money to the expected winners because they want to be on the winning side. What lobbyist doesn’t want to be that the best new friend of the incoming minister?

Legislators tend to act in accordance with the interests of donors, but this is not because of a quid pro quo. Instead, donors tend to give to like-minded candidates. See Steven Levitt, “Who are PACs Trying to Influence with Contributions: Politicians or Voters?” Economics and Politics 10, no. 1 (1998): 19–36.

It is a much surer thing  to give donations to a party that already agrees with you, rather than persuade someone to change their minds with campaign donations. That is a much less certain bet.

Studies of legislative behaviour indicate that the most important determinants of an incumbent’s voting record are constituent interests, party, and personal ideology. These three factors explain nearly all of the variation in incumbents’ voting records. See Steven Levitt, “How Do Senators Vote? Disentangling the Role of Party Affiliation, Voter Preferences and Senator Ideology,” American Economic Review 86 (1996): 425–441.

As an aside, the hard left campaign was instructive in another regard. The hard left honestly believes that there is a large number of people out willing to vote hard left if only their message was properly funded and got a hearing. These would be hard left voters are currently parking their vote  elsewhere, such as with the right wing  parties, apparently.

A massively funded hard left campaign in New Zealand won 1.2% of the party vote. In the 2011 election, the same hard left party, when woefully underfunded, won 1.1% of the party vote. Getting the message out appears to have absolutely no effect on the party vote of the hard left. The median voter theory rules.

The Conservative party was much more successful because the Christian parties in New Zealand usually get about 4% of the vote, except when they’re fighting with each other over who was following the Word of God better, which is rather common.

Furthermore, about 10-15% of the New Zealand election is both socially conservative and economically nationalist. They used to be called working-class Tories. Much of this vote currently votes for the New Zealand First Party– a one-man party – and its leader will be 72 at the next election.

HT: Jeff Milyo

George Stigler (1982) on why the working class did not vote for the Green Party in the 2014 NZ election–part 4

Image

George Stigler (1982) on why the working class did not vote for the Green Party in the 2014 NZ election–part 3

Image

The housing affordability crisis is the key driver of child poverty rates in New Zealand since the late 1980s

Image

George Stigler (1982) on why the working class did not vote for the Green Party in the 2014 NZ election–part 2

Image

George Stigler (1982) on why the working class did not vote for the Green Party in the 2014 NZ election–part 1

Image

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is hinting at exchange rate intervention!!

Uncomplicated Loyalties: Why Cunliffe and the Labour Left Cannot Win – Chris Trotter

Image

The Key to victory: Run against Piketty-nomics, Scott Sumner | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty

This is good news:

New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index increased 1.1 percent, driven higher by power-company stocks, after John Key won a third term as prime minister. Key, a former head of foreign exchange at Merrill Lynch & Co., led his National party to a 48 percent victory in New Zealand’s weekend election, securing the first single-party majority in the South Pacific nation’s parliament since at least 1996. The main opposition Labour Party, which wanted to introduce a tax on capital gains and raise the minimum wage, suffered its worst defeat since 1922.
Perhaps Labour got their ideas from Paul Krugman.

When right-of-center parties are elected, they generally disappoint. Although right-of-center economists favor free markets, most conservative politicians do not. Abe (Japan) and Modi (India) are two recent examples of conservatives who promised reforms and failed to come through (thus far). Fortunately New Zealand is different.

Via http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2014/09/the_key_to_vict.html

The personnel economics of putting up election billboards

I’ve been out of late, helping put up election billboards. Maybe I should get a life, but I noticed that the quality of effort by volunteers was much better than that by the contractors hired by the Internet – Mana party. Everybody in that party appears to be paid including the leader for $140K year. She is not yet in Parliament.

The Internet-Mana party election billboards are very heavy, solid wooden signs and obviously pre-manufactured and must be driven around in a truck. They are certainly too heavy to be put on the back of a trailer behind a private car.

Our signs are constructed on site from a dozen pieces of wood of various sizes. The only pre-prepared part is the billboard itself with fits on the back of a trailer.

What first took my interest is the contractors hired by the Internet – Mana party signs seem to pay not all that much regard to the traffic flow. Some of their signs are parallel with the traffic so hardly anybody can see them. They are all one sided signs.

When we are putting up a election billboard, we squabble like a bunch of old women over the exact angle each sign should face the traffic to capture the most number of passing cars and buses. Everybody has an opinion including those doing it for the first time.

We then squabble about whether the sign should be one-sided or two sided depending upon how well it can be viewed from the other side by traffic coming the other way.

We also squabble about its positioning and height to maximise the number of views by the passing traffic relative to the positioning all the other signs.

There is also a lot of vandalism of these signs by rather naive people who don’t understand that the passing motorist looks at the vandalised signs first.

It takes a whole lot of hatred to vandalised a sign in this way. Photos of the above sign immediately went viral. For some reason, the National party has repaired that sign. I don’t know why.

Progress with the Christchurch earthquake rebuild

Embedded image permalink

Image

The repeal of the Australian carbon tax: proof of falling power prices

Embedded image permalink

Image

Anti-science Left alert: NZ Green Party condones the antifluoridation movement and can’t make up its mind on vaccinations

It’s one thing to condone parents not vaccinating their children on religious grounds or who are just plain nutters who should be allowed to flourish in all their dottiness in a free society.

The presumption that parents know the best interests of their children requires very strong evidence before it is overturned. Of course, you do not have too tolerate their unvaccinated children coming to school.

It is another thing for the Green Party of New Zealand to see both sides of the fluoridation argument:

C. Fluoridation of Community Water Supplies

The issue of fluoridating community water supplies requires a difficult balance between the public health effects and the rights of individuals to opt out altogether or avoid excessive intake. The Party membership has indicated that when considering fluoridation proposals, the Green Party caucus shall:

  • Have particular regard to the public health benefits of fluoridated community water supplies.
  • Have particular regard to the potential public health risks of excessive fluoride consumption via community water supplies.
  • Have regard for the ability of individuals to opt out.

The Green Party will:

  1. Support the use of ‘opt-out’ options by local authorities for residents living in areas with fluoridated public water supplies, where shown to be feasible.
  2. Commission an independent study on the impacts of fluoridation to public health.
  3. Support education initiatives to advise caregivers of the potential for babies to develop dental fluorosis when mixing formula with fluoridated water

Green Party of the New Zealand – health policy

This is the same party is more than happy to accuse sceptics of being a denier on global warming and a lackey of the multinational corporations on GMOs. You cannot, on the one hand, accuse others of denying a scientific consensus and then indulge cranks and quacks.

This is the same nanny state party that wants to tax and regulate drinking fatty foods and sugary drinks in its diabetes action plan:

      1. Ensure evidence-based healthy eating and activity programmes are available and promoted to all New Zealanders.
      2. Introduce mandatory ‘traffic light’ style labelling of fat and sugar content on all food and drinks, including a version for restaurant, café and takeaway foods.
      3. Instatement of a ‘living wage’ to ensure that healthy foods and drinks are within the reach of all New Zealanders.
      4. Severe restriction on the advertising of unhealthy foods and drinks, and on sponsorship by the companies that produce them.
      5. Tax sugary drinks to make them more expensive and drive down consumption. Revenue generated from this tax to be made available to fund other programmes.
      6. Investigation of taxes and other disincentive measures for other foods and drinks with high sugar or fat content.

I am diabetic, but I am not so arrogant as to expect all of society to be reorganised to my advantage because I occasionally lapse from my diet. When I was diagnosed as diabetic, I lost 15 kilos.

Note carefully that on the issue of healthy eating in their diabetes action plan, the Greens are very strong on education as well as taxation and regulation. The Greens are not keen on correcting misconceptions about the evidence base behind fluoridation. No nanny state here.

For a Party that is all for the nanny state and fatty  foods and sugary drinks and is happy to have a nanny state discussion on that, fluoridation is a bridge too far. Obviously the word fluoridation denier is not in the Green vocabulary.

Now let’s turn to the issue of vaccination and the Green Party of New Zealand. One thing to have rotten teeth; it’s another thing to have dead children because of your inability to face the facts of the vaccinations and preventable diseases.

Green Party policy is to sit on the fence on settled science because everyone  in their party is yet to accept the settled science:

Our official position is influenced by the fact that we do not have a firm policy on it as we don’t have consensus from our members.

No steps to ensure evidence-based vaccination programs are made available and promoted to new all New Zealanders, such as with fatty foods and sugary drinks. No traffic like system to warn that unvaccinated children coming to school will stop no investigation of taxes and other disincentives measures regarding unvaccinated children. The safety Nazis in the Greens have become high school libertarians at their worst on fluoridation and vaccinations.

Tolerating eccentrics doesn’t mean you have to step back from telling these eccentrics and nutters that they are eccentrics and nutters, and attempting to persuade them that they are wrong.

A party that says it speaks truth to power is not too keen on speaking the truth to nutters and eccentrics. Even worse,  the Green Party indulges their dangerous ignorance. The case is different for  their action plan on diabetes:

Substantially increase funding for health promotion approaches in those communities most at risk to prevent or minimise obesity-related diseases, including diabetes.

One Green MP in a public speech in 2004 said she was absolutely convinced that her child became ill because of his triple MMR vaccine at 15 months, and refused all further vaccinations:

My own interest in vaccination began when I gave birth to my son 14 years ago. Whether or not to vaccinate our children was a hot topic at our regular mother’s group meetings, but eventually I had my son vaccinated.

Shortly after receiving his triple MMR vaccine at 15 months, he developed a horrendous incident of croup — to the point where he was taken to the emergency department. He subsequently developed a weakness in the chest which led to childhood asthma, which fortunately, through my various remedies, he has managed to shake off.

At the time I said to my doctor, I am certain the croup was triggered by the vaccination, but the doctor dismissed my suggestion as ludicrous, and certainly never forwarded it as an adverse reaction to the Centre for Adverse Reactions, which records significant adverse reactions to vaccination. I was convinced it was, however, and my son has never received another vaccination since.

Her speech also spoke of the link between vaccinations and autism. Even if that was true about the adverse reactions for that particular child of the Green party MP, the relatively rare adverse reactions to vaccinations are part of the risks and rewards trade-off.

That small risk is no reason to bring back measles, mumps and rubella for every child in New Zealand. The Green party is not only anti-science, it is pro-disease.

It is bizarre that vaccination programs that are eliminated terrible diseases are not supported by the Green Party of New Zealand – a party very ready to accuse its opponents have been anti-science and deniers.

There is a difference between the classical liberal argument that people have the right to be wrong and make mistaken choices for themselves and the merits of those choices.

The classical liberal will happily defend your right to be wrong and foolish while at the same time calling you out as a crank and a quack and telling that to your face until he is blue in the face telling you that you were a crank.

There are also third external effects or externality issues: most vaccinations are against contagious diseases where the previous response was quarantining the sick until they stopped being contagious.

image

The Age of Enlightenment is also the Age of Reason. It is time for the Green Party of New Zealand to join both.

West Wing on the fight for privacy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pj4PwyfDNuI

HT: Whale Oil

The criminally large difference between leaks to the media and hacking

There is a difference between hacking and leaks.

For example, Julian Assange is unlikely to face charges under American espionage laws because the FBI would have too pop down and arrest everybody at the New York Times and Washington Post  and the U.S. offices of the Guardian and more than a few famous book authors.

U.S. media organizations could be prosecuted for printing leaked classified information under US espionage legislation, but that prospect is unlikely because of official aversion to running afoul of the First Amendment.

If the government were to prosecute the  recipient of classified information – as opposed to the individual who leaked it from within the government such as Bradley Manning – mainstream media would fear that they could face prosecution for reporting information they routinely receive from government sources. There is no way to prosecute Assange for publishing information without the same theory being applied to journalists.

Assigned is in criminal law trouble only if he assisted Bradley Manning to leak the information as distinct from simply receive it from him. An example might be advising Manning on how to  get around computer security at his Defence Department workplace.

Hacking involves breaking into someone else’s place in the full knowledge that this is prohibited under computer crimes laws. Heavy penalties apply in the same way as physically braking in and stealing the documents. There is no moral or legal distinction.

The outrage against the phone hacking scandal in the UK was based upon breaches of computer crime law and corruption of public officials through bribes. The moral outrage in that scandal was topped up by the glee which some papers had at the fall from grace of their commercial and ideological rivals.

Previous Older Entries Next Newer Entries

Thoughts from the North

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Fardels Bear

A History of the Alt-Right

Vincent Geloso

Econ Prof at George Mason University, Economic Historian, Québécois

Bassett, Brash & Hide

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Truth on the Market

Scholarly commentary on law, economics, and more

The Undercover Historian

Beatrice Cherrier's blog

Matua Kahurangi

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Temple of Sociology

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Velvet Glove, Iron Fist

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Why Evolution Is True

Why Evolution is True is a blog written by Jerry Coyne, centered on evolution and biology but also dealing with diverse topics like politics, culture, and cats.

NoTricksZone

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Homepaddock

A rural perspective with a blue tint by Ele Ludemann

Kiwiblog

DPF's Kiwiblog - Fomenting Happy Mischief since 2003

The Dangerous Economist

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Watts Up With That?

The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change

The Logical Place

Tim Harding's writings on rationality, informal logic and skepticism

Doc's Books

A window into Doc Freiberger's library

The Risk-Monger

Let's examine hard decisions!

Uneasy Money

Commentary on monetary policy in the spirit of R. G. Hawtrey

Barrie Saunders

Thoughts on public policy and the media

Liberty Scott

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Point of Order

Politics and the economy

James Bowden's Blog

A blog (primarily) on Canadian and Commonwealth political history and institutions

Science Matters

Reading between the lines, and underneath the hype.

Peter Winsley

Economics, and such stuff as dreams are made on

A Venerable Puzzle

"The British constitution has always been puzzling, and always will be." --Queen Elizabeth II

The Antiplanner

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Bet On It

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

History of Sorts

WORLD WAR II, MUSIC, HISTORY, HOLOCAUST

Roger Pielke Jr.

Undisciplined scholar, recovering academic

Offsetting Behaviour

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

JONATHAN TURLEY

Res ipsa loquitur - The thing itself speaks

Conversable Economist

In Hume’s spirit, I will attempt to serve as an ambassador from my world of economics, and help in “finding topics of conversation fit for the entertainment of rational creatures.”

The Victorian Commons

Researching the House of Commons, 1832-1868

The History of Parliament

Articles and research from the History of Parliament Trust

Books & Boots

Reflections on books and art

Legal History Miscellany

Posts on the History of Law, Crime, and Justice

Sex, Drugs and Economics

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

European Royal History

Exploring the Monarchs of Europe

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Cutting edge science you can dice with

Marginal REVOLUTION

Small Steps Toward A Much Better World

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

“We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert”. - J Robert Oppenheimer.

STOP THESE THINGS

The truth about the great wind power fraud - we're not here to debate the wind industry, we're here to destroy it.

Lindsay Mitchell

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Alt-M

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law