Why I am not reviewing Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century – updated again

It’s 700 pages long and goes on about Marx. Some people were watching the other channel when the Berlin Wall fell.

thomas-piketty-economist-will-hutton

My 1 o’clock lecture at ANU in 1990 was next to a room rented out ironically from 12 to 1 to the Campus Trots and then to the Campus Christians for an hour of prayer to another saviour.

The Twitter summary of Piketty is this:

Karl Marx wasn’t wrong, just early. Pretty much. Sorry, capitalism. #inequalityforevah

The only Marxist I bother with is Jon Elster. He is a leading proponent of Analytical Marxism and one of the last polymaths. Brian Barry once wrote that to review one of Elster’s books one:

would either have to have taken off several years to master the many fields which fall within Elster’s purview or would be a consortium of at least twenty carefully-chosen experts.

All of Elster’s books and writings are worth reading, including

  • Ulysses and the Sirens (1979);
  • Sour Grapes: Studies in the Subversion of Rationality (1983);
  • Making Sense of Marx (1985); and
  • An Introduction to Karl Marx (1986).

As Jon Elster noted:

Marxian economics is, with a few exceptions, intellectually dead

and Marx’s labour theory of value is:

useless at best, harmful and misleading at its not infrequent worst.

To go on with my non-review, I will quote Tyler Cowen:

The crude seven-word version of Piketty’s argument is “rates of return on capital won’t diminish.”

Piketty’s reasons why rates of return on capital won’t diminish are fairly specific and restricted to only a small share of capital.

.. In any case this is pure speculation and Piketty’s entire argument depends upon it.

… Piketty converts the entrepreneur into the rentier.

To the extent capital reaps high returns, it is by assuming risk…

Yet the concept of risk hardly plays a role in the major arguments of this book.

Once you introduce risk, the long-run fate of capital returns again becomes far from certain.

In fact the entire book ought to be about risk but instead we get the rentier…

Overall, the main argument is based on two (false) claims.

First, that capital returns will be high and non-diminishing, relative to other factors.

Second, that this can happen without significant increases in real wages.

Piketty’s advocacy of a top marginal income tax rate of 80% and a an international treaty for a wealth tax are wildly impractical and destructive of economic growth and entrepreneurship. His advocacy of 60% marginal tax rates on incomes above $200,000 strike at the heart of the professional and managerial occupations that are the backbone of day-to-day capitalism. Piketty’s wealth tax would tax the homes and the retirement savings of the ordinary middle class:

  • wealth below 200,000 euros be taxed at a rate of 0.1 percent,
  • wealth between 200,000 and one million euros at 0.5 percent,
  • wealth between one million and five million euros at 1.0 percent, and
  • wealth above five million euros at 2.0 percent.

Piketty’s reason for these high top tax rates is not to bring in more revenue or to redistribute wealth to poor and the downtrodden but simply “to put an end to such incomes.” Harsanyi argues that:

Like many progressives, Piketty doesn’t really believe that most people deserve their wealth anyway, so confiscating it presents no real moral dilemma.

He also argues that we can measure a person’s productivity and the value of a worker (namely, low-skilled labourers) while arguing that other groups of workers (namely, the kind of people he doesn’t admire) are bequeathed undeserved, “arbitrary” salaries. What tangible benefit does a stockbroker or a kulak or an explanatory journalist offer society, after all?

This takes me back to Jon Elster who had this to say on socialism:

Optimism and wishful thinking have been features of socialist thought from its inception.

In Marx, for instance, two main premises appear to be that whatever is desirable is possible, and that whatever is desirable and possible is inevitable.

…It has become clear that classical socialism massively underestimated the importance of economic incentives.

Greg Mankiw is less harsh, but still to the point:

Like President Obama and others on the left, Piketty wants to spread the wealth around.

Another philosophical viewpoint is that it is the government’s job to enforce rules such as contracts and property rights and promote opportunity rather than to achieve a particular distribution of economic outcomes.

No amount of economic history will tell you that John Rawls (and Thomas Piketty) offers a better political philosophy than Robert Nozick (and Milton Friedman).

John Rawls was actually very much alive to the importance of incentives in a just and prosperous society.

Unequal incomes might turn out to be to the advantage of everyone. Work effort and entrepreneurial alertness respond to incentives; incentives channel people into the occupations and jobs where they produce more.

Rawls lent qualified support to the idea of a flat-rate consumption tax because these taxes:

impose a levy according to how much a person takes out of the common store of goods and not according to how much he contributes.

A simple way to have a progressive consumption tax is to exempt all savings from taxation.

With his emphasis on fair distributions of income, Rawls’ initial appeal was to the Left. Left-wing thinkers then started to dislike his acceptance of capitalism and his tolerance of large discrepancies in income and wealth.

It’s impossible to make the workers better off by taxing capital. The optimal rate of tax on income from capital is zero. This is why the Mirrlees Review of the UK taxation system argued for zero taxation of the returns to capital.

Robert Lucas estimated in 1990 that eliminating all taxes on income from capital would increase the U.S. capital stock by about 35% and consumption by 7%.

Hans Fehr, Sabine Jokisch, Ashwin Kambhampati, and Laurence J. Kotlikoff (2014) found that eliminating the corporate income tax completely would raise the U.S. capital stock (machines and buildings) by 23%, output by 8% and the real wages of unskilled and skilled workers each by 12%.

Book reviews serve the same purpose as film reviews. They are filters for our time. Do you agree?

I made a time management decision to not read a long book plenty of others reviewed and some even understood.

As for the growing income inequality, there is a long literature dating back 25-years arguing that skill-biased technological change is increasing the returns to investing in education as Gary Becker blogged in 2011:

Earnings inequality in the United States and many other countries has increased greatly since the late 1970s, due in large measure to globalization and technological progress that raised the productivity of more educated and more skilled individuals.

While the average American college graduate earned about a 40% premium over the average high school graduate in 1980, this premium increased to over 70% in 2000.

The good side of this higher education-based earnings inequality is that it induced more young men, and especially more young women, to go to and finish college.

The bad side is that many sufficiently able children could not take advantage of the greater returns from a college education because their parents did not prepare them to perform well in school, or they went to bad schools, or they lacked the financing to attend college.

As a result, the incomes of high school dropouts and of many high school graduates stagnated while incomes boomed for many persons who graduated college, and even more so for those with post graduate education.

There is nothing new under the sun.

Chart of the day: In 2013, America was more than twice as energy efficient compared to 1970 when Earth Day started | AEIdeas

gdp-600x430

Chart of the day: In 2013, America was more than twice as energy efficient compared to 1970 when Earth Day started | AEIdeas.

Wild Swans and Star Trek

About the only book I almost read in one sitting was Wild Swans. I stopped reading at 2 in the morning. This autobiography is 676 pages long. Wild Swans is the story of three generations of women and their families in 20th century China. It is the biggest grossing non-fiction paperback in publishing history.

Wild Swans starts with Jung Chang’s grandmother whose feet were bound at the age of two in 1909. She was later to be a concubine to the local warlord. Her mother was a communist revolutionary in the 1940s onwards and her own story as among other things a teenage Red Guard in the Cultural Revolution. The Guardian described Wild Swan as “For many in the west, Wild Swans was their first real insight into life under the Chinese Communist party.”

I will only mention the part of it that reminded me of Steven Cheung’s analysis of how class ridden communist societies were.

A party membership card puts you above others. That card described in enormous detail what privileges you received depending on your rank in the party.

This is exactly what happened in wild swans. Jung Chang’s father was of the 14th rank while her mother was of the 17th rank. This rank decided what food you got, your accommodation, whether your parents could live with you and even the type of seat you got on the railways.

Star Trek was supposed to be a society that had abolished money and as a post-scarcity economy because everything was available through a replicator. The type of economics it is based on is cooperative economics. To quote Captain Picard:

A lot has changed in three hundred years. People are no longer obsessed with the accumulation of ‘things’. We have eliminated hunger, want, the need for possessions.

The economics of the future is somewhat different. You see, money doesn’t exist in the 24th century… The acquisition of wealth is no longer the driving force in our lives. We work to better ourselves and the rest of Humanity.

The Ferengi and their 285 rules of acquisition were a satire on capitalism. The Ferengi was originally meant to replace the Klingons as the Federation’s arch-rival but they were far too comical.

Gene Roddenberry’s love story with socialism is the most class-ridden society I have ever seen. In Star Trek, higher ranked officers had larger cabins, and most of all they always beamed back from the planet.

Anyone who beamed down with Captain Kirk dressed in those red security officer tops were expendables. Death and accommodation were class based on Star Trek.

The U.S.S. Enterprise also spent a lot of time negotiating trade treaties and visiting planets where the Earth colonists lived in agrarian poverty with famines and preventable diseases.

Terry, Arthur and Maggie Thatcher

Some are one-eyed enough to look upon pre-Thatcher Britain fondly – good jobs and more equality. Watching re-runs of The Minder, I do not see Terry and Arthur, after a hard day of ducking, diving and ‘strictly cash only’ operations, sitting at the bar of the Winchester Club with Dave talking about how they never had it so good.

British TV of the 1970s was gritty. The Sweeney is another example, reflecting the economic stagnation of that time.

The Minder was a slow starter in the ratings, not helped by delay from a 9-week technicians’ strike which blacked out the ITV network. It was almost cancelled after one season.

The 25% annual CPI inflation, the productivity slowdown, the three-day week, and the 1978 winter of discontent earned the U.K. in those good old days of good jobs and more equality the moniker ‘the sick man of Europe’.

During the 1960s and 1970s, the main parties competed to reverse Britain’s relative economic decline. There was a growing awareness that the economic league tables showed that Britain was at the wrong end for figures regarding strikes, productivity, inflation, economic growth and rising living standards.

Virtually all European countries, except Britain, had so-called ‘economic miracles’. The targets for blame included: failure to invest in new plant and machinery, restrictive working practices and outdated attitudes on the shop floor (‘us and them’), amateurish management, loss of markets, and rise of competition.

Some believe, as surely as night follows day, that life got worse under Thatcher

“The 70s was Britain’s most equal decade. The jobs that went during the 80s tended to be good, skilled jobs, delivering decent incomes and some security. She failed to replace those jobs with well-paid equivalents. Demonising unions and stripping the great mass of private-sector workers of a voice and power in the workplace is still the root of the great living standards crisis that saw the share of wealth going to wages slide long before Lehman Brothers failed.”

My high school economics teacher took us on a tour of a carpet factory. The boredom in the eyes of those workers motivated me big time to go to university.

Some members of the educated middle-class forget what a factory job was like in the 1970s. Dangerous too were those good jobs of the 1970s. One reason for low-paid jobs paying a little less now is they are safer and less boring.

What would a socialist Britain look like today – again the Guardian backcasting to a decade of nationalisations, nuclear disarmament and state-run pubs:

Perhaps we would be waiting six months for a mobile telephone, and paying the bills to the post office, headed by the Postmaster General – I don’t believe it would be a very advanced telephone, either. Perhaps there would be three TV channels and the requirement for a licence before you could use the internet.

Thatcher won office and stayed in office for so long because the previous arrangements were not working and there had to be a better way. UK Labour spent 17 years in the political wilderness because its ideas failed Britain in the 1970s. As the Minder progressed, the series reflected the improving British economy and Arthur becoming CEO of Daley into Europe Ltd.

Living in the 70s – the BBC documentary Electric Dreams

I grew up in the 70s. But were they the ‘good old days’?

A BBC television documentary placed two parents and four children in their home with only the amenities available during each of the previous three decades (1970s, 1980s and 1990s) and recording their responses to technological change.

The programme follows the family’s adaption and reaction to being thrown back in time to a more technologically sparse period and how their pastimes and attitudes change in response to both landing in the early 1970s and coming up-to-date.

The episodes revealed the huge transformation that technological change has wrought on British family life over the past 40 years. The children have to cope when they swapped Facebook for black-and-white telly and vinyl records.

33⅓ LP vinyl record album

It was goodbye to their three game consoles, three DVD players, five mobile phones, six televisions and seven computers, not to mention their dishwasher, two washing machines and tumble dryer. The teenager had to do a pre-dawn paper boy run.

Filming occurred over the winter of 2009, which was particularly cold and snowy for England, a fact which figured into the story when the family had to endure cold nights early in the project. The lack of central heating was simulated for the 70s episode.

How much would you pay to go back to the 1970s or whenever you define as the good old days?

A way to grasp the conceptual difficulties of measuring changes in living standards and life expectancies across the decades is to step into Brad De Long’s time machine.

In this thought experiment, De Long asks how much you would want in additional income to agree to go back in time to a specific year. De Long was an economic historian examining the differences in American living standards since 1990.

De Long would have refused to go at all to 1900 unless he could at least have taken mid-20th century modern medicine with him. Otherwise, it would have meant dying from a childhood phenomena. I would have probably died from appendicitis if I was a teenager in 1900. Instead, I spent 10 days in hospital in the 1970s.

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