Great chart. Labour not keen on choosing on leaders who can win elections, 1906-2015. Contrast the Tories http://t.co/VBlT7k5ONB—
paulkirby (@paul1kirby) September 12, 2015
@jeremycorbyn @UKLabour has a long history of picking losers as leaders
13 Sep 2015 Leave a comment
in economic history, Public Choice Tags: British Labour Party, British politics, Leftover Left, Twitter left
Burnham Mocks Corbyn
11 Sep 2015 Leave a comment
in economics of media and culture Tags: British politics
#JFK on @jeremycorbyn #toriesforcorbyn
10 Sep 2015 Leave a comment
in comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, Marxist economics, Public Choice Tags: British politics, JFK, Leftover Left
Inside the mindset of Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters
27 Aug 2015 1 Comment
in economics of media and culture, Public Choice Tags: British politics, voter demographics
@jeremycorbyn in a nutshell #torysforcorbyn
24 Aug 2015 1 Comment
in Marxist economics, Public Choice, war and peace Tags: British politics, Leftover Left
@nzlabour @NZGreens There just isn’t no missing million out there hanging out for that hard-left clarion call @rsalmond
22 Aug 2015 1 Comment
in applied price theory, constitutional political economy, economics of information, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: British Labour Party, British politics, economics of advertising, Eric Crampton, expressive voting, false consciousness, Leftover Left, median voter theorem, New Zealand Greens, New Zealand Labour Party, rational ignorance, rational rationality
Rob Salmond has written a great blog this week on the ideological spectrum of New Zealand voters based on the New Zealand Election Study.
In the course of his blog he drove a tremendously big stake through the heart of the old left fantasy that if Labour or Greens goes left, a large block of voters not voting for them now or not voting at all (the missing million voters) will shake lose its false consciousness and follow you:
But “pulling the centre back towards the left” is massively, massively hard.
You win those people over by being relevant to them as they are, not by telling them they’re worldview needs a rethink. It is just basic psychology. Tell people they were right all along; they like you. Tell people they were wrong all along; they don’t.
And if you win a majority of centrists, you win. The New Zealand Election Study series records six MMP elections in New Zealand – the three where Labour did best among centrists were the three Labour won.
That’s another message from the academic study I quoted above – in Germany, Sweden, and the UK, the elections where the left did best among centrists were the elections where they took power. As their popularity among centrists declined, so did their seat share.
What is more disturbing for the old left fantasy of the missing million is voting for the Labour Party or Greens is correlated with ignorance rather than knowledge.
Furthermore, the more people know about economics, the less likely they are to vote for the left as Eric Crampton explains:
When they get to the polls, the ignorant are significantly more likely to support the Labour Party (4% increase in predicted probability for a standard deviation increase in ignorance) and significantly less likely to support the Green party (1% decrease in predicted probability) and United Future (0.5% decrease in predicted probability).
Understanding economics strongly predicted supporting National in 2005, which comes as little surprise: the National Party leader was former Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. A standard deviation increase in our “economic thinking” index correlates with a 5.7% increased probability of voting National, a 1.5% decreased probability of voting NZ First, and a slight decrease in the probability of voting United Future and Maori.
To make matters worse, Crampton found that joining political organisations does little to cure ignorance of politics or otherwise lead to a political awakening. Sometimes active political affiliation reduces ignorance, other times such organisational membership intensifies ignorance.
via Salmond on the centre | Kiwiblog and StephenFranks.co.nz » Blog Archive » Why the left wants everyone to vote.
Why did @jeremycorbyn never split from @UKLabour despite 30 years on the outer? #torysforcorbyn
21 Aug 2015 1 Comment
in constitutional political economy, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: British general election, British politics, Leftover Left
If you think equality and fairness in Britain is important you should do this: labour.tw/1MH6f4M http://t.co/7gCDkX7fj5—
The Labour Party (@UKLabour) August 06, 2015
Jeremy Corbyn had 30 years to split from the Labour Party, which he voted against 25% of the time, establish his own party and receive the same reception presumably he would have got without needing to have to run for leader of the Labour Party.
Conservatism and nationalism destroy the Labour Party nickcohen.net/2015/06/02/con… http://t.co/ue0XzXTEFo—
Nick Cohen (@NickCohen4) June 02, 2015
The reasoning Corbyn never split from the Labour Party, and the reason why the left never splits from the Labour Party, is the left knows that it would get far fewer votes on its own rather than piggybacking on the right wing of that party.
The right split from the British Labour Party in the early 1980s to form the Social Democratic party. The right-wing split from the Australian Labor Party at least four times over its history.
The left is never split from the New Zealand Labour Party because it knows that it could never get anywhere even under proportional representation without the image of being part of the traditional Labour Party, centre-left, social democratic, not socialist. Jeremy Corbyn and the rest of the left of British Labour are practising mild mannered entryism. By stealing the brand of the Labour Party, the left obtains far more power than it ever could standing on its own two feet as true believers.
Our vision is of an economy that works for all, provides opportunity for all and invests in all. #jeremy4leader http://t.co/59Gk9AN7Xf—
JeremyCorbyn4Leader (@Corbyn4Leader) July 22, 2015
The working hypothesis of the far left everywhere is if the Labour Party were to adopt hard left policies is many more votes.
Fabulous scenes wherever we go, but this picture of the Opera House in Newcastle is quite something. #voteCorbyn http://t.co/GzB96CjB7d—
JeremyCorbyn4Leader (@Corbyn4Leader) August 18, 2015
Labour would win many more votes because the offer of a genuine socialist alternative would shake voters loose of their false consciousness.
The left of the Labour Party never went out on its own to test that hypothesis because they knew in their hearts be lucky to not to lose their deposits.
This is despite the strong rise in third parties in British politics despite first past the post.
The remnants of the communist parties do well at elections in countries such as France, Germany (Linke or Left Party) and Japan and are in government in Greece.
- 53 communist and anti-capitalist parties have been elected worldwide to freely elected parliament in 39 countries.
- The Trots regularly get 4% in French presidential elections while the British SWP is still in the same league as the monster raving loony party.
The right wing of the Labour Party was willing to take its chances under first past the post voting in the House of Commons because it knew that a large part the electorate would vote for it in preference to the remnant of a left-wing run Labour Party.
The combination of these splitters from the British Labour Party and the Liberal party won 25% of the vote, two percentage points behind the British Labour Party.
46% of Tory MPs don’t understand politics #ToriesForCorbyn @jeremycorbyn
19 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in economics of media and culture, Public Choice Tags: British Labour Party, British politics, expressive voting, Leftover Left, rational irrationality
https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/631585303631921152
https://twitter.com/TheBigBlueBear6/status/633743084430344192
Won’t be a sober Tory in the Palace of Westminster on the night @jeremycorbyn wins
12 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in Public Choice Tags: British Labour Party, British politics, echo chamber, expressive boating, information cocoons, left-wing populists, Leftover Left, rational irrationality
https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/630851446234316800/photo/1
Anti-establishment candidate with fringe views draws huge crowds in sure-fire guarantee of electoral success http://t.co/P7waxqUXrR—
Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido) August 03, 2015
What happened the last time a Labour PM was elected before Blair
08 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in economic growth, economic history, income redistribution, macroeconomics, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: British economy, British Labour Party, British politics, Tony Blair Blair
Quarters following general elections tend to see decent growth – especially 1979 http://t.co/bJarqD8Etj—
RBS Economics (@RBS_Economics) July 28, 2015
Labour Party misunderstands why a Tory MP tried to join to vote @jeremycorbyn
06 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in constitutional political economy, Marxist economics, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: British Labour Party, British politics, expressive voting, Leftover Left, preference formation, rational irrationality, shy Labour voters, working class Torys
The living wage as an application of Director’s Law
30 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in income redistribution, labour economics, minimum wage, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, population economics, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: British politics, Director's Law, expressive voting, living wage, rational ignorance, rational irrationality
OBR's idea of who will benefit from National Living Wage http://t.co/ztxfW906Gg—
James Bartholomew (@JGBartholomew) July 08, 2015
Who has heavily guarded borders?
25 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in international economic law, international economics, International law, politics - Australia, politics - USA Tags: Australia, British politics, economics of immigration, EU, illegal immigration, Mexico, North Korea, Spain
The walled world
– http://t.co/dXmzCUrjpD—
Amazing Maps (@Amazing_Maps) July 13, 2015
British voting patterns by religion
25 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in constitutional political economy, Public Choice Tags: 2015 British election, British politics, voter demographics
Ben Clements of @BritRelNumbers on voting behaviour by religion in #GE2015 using BES data
brin.ac.uk/news/2015/reli… http://t.co/NKVlt3xarY—
BritishElectionStudy (@BESResearch) July 23, 2015
@jeremycorbyn should welcome #toriesforcorbyn as shy Labour voters coming home to the long-awaited hard left policies
23 Jul 2015 1 Comment
in constitutional political economy, Marxist economics, Public Choice Tags: British Labour Party, British politics, expressive voting, Leftover Left, rational irrationality, shy Labour voters
Jeremy Corbyn has done it. The working hypothesis of the far left everywhere is if the Labour Party were to adopt hard left policies, they would win many more votes.
The new votes include shy Labour voters parking their vote with the Tory party pending the call home to a true Labour Party.
They are parking their votes with other parties because they are fed up with a middle of the road Labour Party, such as the Blairite Labour Party. They are withholding their vote as punishment until the Labour Party returns to its roots and adopts hard left policies.
Our vision is of an economy that works for all, provides opportunity for all and invests in all. #jeremy4leader http://t.co/59Gk9AN7Xf—
JeremyCorbyn4Leader (@Corbyn4Leader) July 22, 2015
Rather than accept that their day has come, the left of the Labour Party is deeply suspicious of Tory party supporters wanting to join the Labour Party in anticipation of voting in hard left leadership in their current leadership election. What’s going on?
What seems to terrify the Labour Party is its old dream coming true: a large number of Tory party voters switching their support to Labour and joining the Labour Party because it might adopt hard left policies and a hard left leader who makes Michael Foot look like a pussycat.
Labour party members, please think before you vote for Jeremy Corbyn gu.com/p/4aqvd/stw http://t.co/U5hz02ahgd—
Comment is free (@commentisfree) July 22, 2015
What is more jarring than the fear of the Labour Left having its dreams come true is the Left of the British Labour is not showing against any insight into the genuine enthusiasm that the Tory party has for Jeremy Corbyn winning the election as leader of the Labour Party
There is no misdirection here or double play. The Tory party wants Jeremy Corbyn to be elected leader of the Labour Party.
Time for a re-run of this classic? http://t.co/Pwqyn00cQo—
James Bartholomew (@JGBartholomew) April 14, 2015
The Liberal Democratic party must see their resurrection coming in the form of Jeremy Corbyn as do UKIP in terms of making inroads into working-class labour electorates.
There are left-wing and fairly left-wing people who do vote for the Tory party and the LDP, but there’s not that many of them, and overall they only make up about 15% of the British electorate, and a small part of the left-wing vote not voting for left-wing parties.
It would seem more reasonable to follow the median voter theorem and go for those in the centre because there are plenty of them and only minor modifications of your platform are required to win their votes.
Anti-establishment candidate with fringe views draws huge crowds in sure-fire guarantee of electoral success http://t.co/P7waxqUXrR—
Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido) August 03, 2015
Why is the far left chasing with these shy Labour voters when there are plenty more middle of the road voters willing to vote for them in 2015 in the right circumstance?
…while the average UKIP or Tory voter is well to the right of Labour there are many Conservative and UKIP supporters who are in the centre ground and whose votes Miliband cannot afford to write off. For example, nearly four in ten UKIP supporters and 16% of Conservative voters place themselves on the centre point or to the left of centre.
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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