Why so few successful left-wing populists

The Twitter Left is doing its best to attribute the surge against globalisation and immigration to inequality. This is despite the main beneficiary at the ballot box is right-wing populists.

The beneficiaries in the last few years were UKIP, the French National Front, Alternative for Germany, various pro-welfare state but anti-immigration parties in the rest of Europe, Pauline Hanson and Donald Trump. Barely a left wing party in sight outside of Greece.


Source: Only a third of the EU is governed by the centre-left | World news | The Guardian.

Bernie Sanders is a fake left-wing populist because much of his support comes from college students and the university educated, not the aroused working class. These college students are unwilling to pay more than $1000 in taxes for the socialist revolution especially if they have a job.

At the last New Zealand election, two-thirds of the electorate voted for other than centre-left and left-wing parties. The hard left party, Mana-Internet, won 1% of the party vote despite having millions of dollars in campaign donations from a criminal fugitive hoping to avoid extradition.

These right-wing populists combine a heady brew of nationalism and social conservatism, scepticism about market competition, strong support for social security and old-age pensions but not welfare dependency, and opposition to immigration, imports and cultural change. The rise of the parties are not the first signs of an aroused working class seeking to overthrow capitalism. Face up to it.


Australian @greens are more extreme than @OneNationAus?

42% of party A voters second preferences the Australian Labour Party. Less than 20% of party B voters second preference the Liberal Party of Australia.

Party A is Pauline Hanson’s One Nation voters; party B are Australian Green voters. Which are more extreme in terms of the distance from the median voter?

Which is more likely be persuaded to change their vote by been told over and over in the media that there are a bunch of extremists with concerns completely unrelated to the average Australian. We should note that people vote to anger and displease under the theory of expressive voting. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is UKIP without the polish.

HL Mencken on the @realDonaldTrump & @BernieSanders


Won’t be a sober Tory in the Palace of Westminster on the night @jeremycorbyn wins


Why is Labour so staunch on its left-wing policies – the voters must come to them – but opportunistic on race?

Figure 1: who won the electorate vote of New Zealand First party voters, 2014 New Zealand election


Source: Electoral Commission.

New Zealand First vote splitting data in Figure 1 suggests many more Labour voters vote New Zealand First than for the National Party with their electorate votes.

1/3rd of voters who gave their party vote to New Zealand First voted Labour with their electorate vote. This compares to one in five New Zealand First voters who gave their electorate vote to the National Party.

The Labour Party can win back some traditional Labour voters by borrowing populist policies from New Zealand First and its ageing leader such as prohibiting foreigners from buying New Zealand land.

Who mentioned Shane Jones?