Energy poverty and Euro inflation rates

@AlexEpstein on why you should love fossil fuels

@World_Wildlife on the cost of moving to a low carbon economy @jamespeshaw @GreenpeaceNZ @NZGreens

https://www.facebook.com/bjornlomborg/photos/pb.146605843967.-2207520000.1443688880./10153152418228968/?type=3&src=https%3A%2F%2Fscontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net%2Fhphotos-xfp1%2Fv%2Ft1.0-9%2F10953416_10153152418228968_4058694354218424381_n.png%3Foh%3D846b1682aae66fd558f3c81f56f8fbd0%26oe%3D5698EAB2&size=660%2C479&fbid=10153152418228968

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RT @GreenpeaceNZ are right: Do not send anyone to @cop21 The summit is waste of time

Greenpeace is right in saying in their open letter with others that New Zealand should not send a minister to the climate talks in Paris later this year. I agree for different reasons.

In common with many previous climate summits, the Paris talks will be a futile gesture that will have no significant effect on the pace of global warming and holding the summit is a waste of taxpayers money.

Nothing will come of them because the developing countries have no interest in postponing their development because of a minor inconvenience from global warming.

The easy way to tell if there is anything going to happen at a climate summit is the seniority of the delegation.

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The Chinese made it clear at the Copenhagen summit in 2009 that they were not interested in an agreement by sending a Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs to a key side meeting of the American and French presidents, the British Prime Minister and the German Chancellor. All subsequent policy manoeuvrings by the Chinese on global warming are an attempt to head off green tariffs on their exports.

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Economic impact of global warming: new evidence

A nice summary of the latest research showing that once again the welfare cost of climate change is small except under the most extreme scenarios.

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2% of national income is not something to declare a national emergency over unless you are in a very poor country.

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Richard Tol also mentions that there has only been 27 studies of the economic costs of climate change:

Twenty-seven estimates is a thin basis for any conclusion. Researchers disagree on the sign of the net impact; climate change may lead to a welfare gain or loss. At the same time, researchers agree on the order of magnitude. The welfare change caused by climate change is equivalent to the welfare change caused by an income change of a few percent.

  • That is, a century of climate change is about as good/bad for welfare as a year of economic growth.

As Tol wrote elsewhere, the reason why there are so few studies of the welfare cost of global warming is governments and bureaucracies do not like the small numbers they yield so they pre-emptively do not fund such research.

Few economists work full-time on the economics of climate change as their research results are too moderate to win repeat business and further research grants. Importantly, there is vicious criticism of what you say. Much better to just work on other topics.

One of the great tactical victories of the climate activists, I resisted the temptation to call them climate alarmists, is they keep going on about the science is settled and whether you are accepting the scientific results.

I have long argued let the science be settled, only the economics matters. The climate change activists do not want to talk about the economics that much except for the estimates by that political hack Lord Stern. Lord Stern has been on the losing side of history ever since he wrote a bad review of PT Bauer’s Dissent on Development where he said:

Dissent on Development is not a valuable contribution to the study of development.

The Stern Review puts the costs of unmitigated climate change at 5–20% of GDP (now and forever). The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finds differently.

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HT: Lorenzo M Warby

What do #McDonalds & @GreenpeaceNZ no longer have in common? @NZGreens @RusselNorman

Like McDonalds, Greenpeace globally is a brand. I read the papers every day in detail but are utterly clueless as to who its leaders are. That is a deliberate branding decision so people cannot conflate the inevitably dodgy and far left backgrounds of its leaders and activist support base with self appointed environmental do-gooders brand.

That is no longer so in New Zealand where a middle-age political junkie retiring as co-leader of the New Zealand Greens will now be their CEO in New Zealand.

If Russell Norman wants to do his job properly, you should never give an interview, never appear in public.

What is worse is the carrying on by the Greens about the retirement of Russell Norman to lead the Greenpeace in New Zealand.

If they wanted to maintain the political effectiveness of Greenpeace, they should have made a short press release congratulating him on his retirement and wishing him well in his new job and saying little more. The Greens should stop carrying on as though you have taken over Greenpeace New Zealand.

I do not wish Greenpeace well with its anti-growth, anti-science, anti-human agenda, so I hope this was a mistake and I hope I am not interrupting them in making that mistake.

@NZGreens @GreenpeaceNZ #NEWZEALAND best prepared for #climatechange almost

The essence of science for the Anti-science Left @NZGreens @GreenpeaceNZ #GMOs

Do the @NZGreens care about the fuel poverty consequences of carbon taxes?

@GreenpeaceNZ @NZGreens environmentalism is not face of the future

https://www.facebook.com/AEIonline/photos/pb.44951363957.-2207520000.1440227169./10153248075203958/?type=3&src=https%3A%2F%2Ffbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net%2Fhphotos-ak-xtp1%2Fv%2Ft1.0-9%2F11182195_10153248075203958_8463568655864111066_n.jpg%3Foh%3Debfd60d126ae1f5e763924776d550504%26oe%3D566BF1DA%26__gda__%3D1450825503_f184c9ae6d46fa0741bb615810c30d6b&size=885%2C595&fbid=10153248075203958

@guardianeco slimes New Zealand’s record on #climatechange @NZGreens @GreenpeaceNZ

https://twitter.com/guardianeco/status/634681114527797248

Why do unilateral actions to combat global warming fail in Congress?

Settled science part 1: Is science ever actually settled?

Fallacy Man's avatarThe Logic of Science

Daniel Moyniham quote everyone is entitled to his own opinion but not his own factsWe are constantly told that “everyone has a right to their opinion” and “there are two sides to every story.” Our entire news system is predicated on the notion that we need to give fair time to both sides of every situation. The problem with this type of thinking is that it leads to the misconception that both sides are equally valid, or, at the very least, that there must be some truth to both sides, but in many cases, only one side has any merit. In other words, it’s often not opinion #1 vs. opinion #2, rather, it is fact vs. fiction. One “side” is reality, while the other “side” is a fairy tail. For example, if you want to say that the island of Jamaica is being carried around on the back of giant sea turtle, that’s not your opinion, you’re just wrong. There wouldn’t be two legitimate…

View original post 1,489 more words

The Battle Over Global Warming Is All in Your Head

Unexpected kind word for Parliament House protesters @GreenpeaceNZ @RusselNorman @NZGreens @greencatherine

The Greenpeace vandals who trespassed at Parliament, climbing up to put signs down the front in flagrant disregard of the most ample possible options for peaceful protest right outside at least had the integrity to plead guilty. That shows some sort of fidelity to law and an acknowledgement that what they did was a criminal offence.

John Rawls makes the point that the purpose of civil disobedience is not to impose your will upon others but through your protest to implore them to reconsider their position and change the law or policy you are disputing.

Rawls argues that civil disobedience is never covert or secretive; it is only ever committed in public, openly, and with fair notice to legal authorities. Openness and publicity, even at the cost of having one’s protest frustrated, offers ways for the protesters to show their willingness to deal fairly with authorities. Rawls argues:

  • for a public, non-violent, conscientious yet political act contrary to law being done (usually) with the aim of bringing about a change in the law or policies of the government;
  • that appeals to the sense of justice of the majority;
  • which may be direct or indirect;
  • within the bounds of fidelity to the law; and
  • whose protesters are willing to accept punishment. Although civil disobedience involves breaking the law, it is for moral rather than selfish reasons; the willingness to accept arrest is proof of the integrity of the act.

Rawls argues, and too many forget, that civil disobedience and dissent more generally contribute to the democratic exchange of ideas by forcing the champions of dominant opinion to defend their views.

Legitimate non-violent direct action are publicity stunts to gain attention and provoke debate within the democratic framework, where we resolve our differences by trying to persuade each other and convince the electorate.

Too many acts of non-violent direct action aim to impose their will on others rather than peaceful protests designed to bring about democratic change in the laws or policies of the incumbent government. That ‘might does not make right’ is fundamental to the rule of law. As United States Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia said

The virtue of a democratic system [with a constitutionally guaranteed right to free speech] is that it readily enables the people, over time, to be persuaded that what they took for granted is not so and to change their laws accordingly..

Both sides passionately but respectfully attempt to persuade their fellow citizens to accept their views. Win or lose, advocates for today’s losing causes can continued pressing their cases, secure in the knowledge that an electoral loss today can be negated by a later electoral win, which is democracy in action as Justice Kennedy explains:

…a democracy has the capacity—and the duty—to learn from its past mistakes; to discover and confront persisting biases; and by respectful, rationale deliberation to rise above those flaws and injustices…

It is demeaning to the democratic process to presume that the voters are not capable of deciding an issue of this sensitivity on decent and rational grounds.

The process of public discourse and political debate should not be foreclosed even if there is a risk that during a public campaign there will be those, on both sides, who seek to use racial division and discord to their own political advantage. An informed public can, and must, rise above this. The idea of democracy is that it can, and must, mature.

Freedom embraces the right, indeed the duty, to engage in a rational, civic discourse in order to determine how best to form a consensus to shape the destiny of the Nation and its people. These First Amendment dynamics would be disserved if this Court were to say that the question here at issue is beyond the capacity of the voters to debate and then to determine.

John Rawls’ view that fidelity to law and democratic change through trying to persuade each other is at the heart of civil disobedience reflects the difference between the liberal and the left-wing on democracy and social change as Jonathan Chait observed this week:

Liberals treat political rights as sacrosanct. The left treats social and economic justice as sacrosanct. The liberal vision of political rights requires being neutral about substance.

To the left, this neutrality is a mere guise for maintaining existing privilege; debates about “rights” can only be resolved by defining which side represents the privileged class and which side represents the oppressed…

Liberals believe that social justice can be advanced without giving up democratic rights and norms. The ends of social justice do not justify any and all means.

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