A 2011 blog post of mine on "the bet" rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2011/10/cornuc…
Attached a bigger bin of commodities & bet dates in red http://t.co/SC6HeuRwys—
Roger Pielke Jr. (@RogerPielkeJr) April 29, 2015
26th anniversary of Julian Simon @PaulREhrlich bet @GreenpeaceNZ @GreenpeaceUSA
11 Oct 2016 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic history, energy economics, entrepreneurship, industrial organisation, resource economics, survivor principle Tags: commodity prices, doomsday prophecies, endogenous growth theory, entrepreneurial alertness, Julian Simon, Paul Ehrlich
Earth Day flashback
21 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
in environmental economics, environmentalism, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: doomsday prophecies, Earth Day, Paul Ehrlich
Will the population bomb prevent the great stagnation?
16 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, economic growth, industrial organisation, P.T. Bauer, population economics Tags: doomsday prophecies, endogenous growth theory, pessimism bias, population bomb
If only Paul Ehrlich had been right! Population explosion would have meant an explosion in people who could invent new technologies and populate in much larger markets to provide an incentive to invent new products.
Among Paul Ehrlich’s many analytical errors, he did not take into account that more people meant more inventors and more untapped markets.
Jones argued that in the very long run the only way to have further innovation is to have more people. If there are more people undertaking R&D and more people to populate the markets for those inventions, there will be further growth because the decreasing returns to knowledge creation will be overcome by having more R&D workers.
Jones attributes much of the growth in the 20th century to one-off effects that cannot be repeated such as putting more people into higher education:
… growth in educational attainment, developed-economy R&D intensity, and population are all likely to be slower in the future than in the past. These factors point to slower growth in US living standards.
Second, a counterbalancing factor is the rise of China, India, and other emerging economies, which likely implies rapid growth in world researchers for at least the next several decades.
Third, and more speculatively, the shape of the idea production function introduces a fundamental uncertainty into the future of growth. For example, the possibility that artificial intelligence will allow machines to replace workers to some extent could lead to higher growth in the future.
A larger population increases the rate of technological progress by increasing the number of geniuses and other creative people.The doomsday prophecies about the population bomb never took that into account. That is why they are wrong.
The western environmental movement’s role in China’s one-child policy
19 Nov 2015 Leave a comment
in development economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, growth disasters, growth miracles, health economics, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: China, cranks, doomsday profits, doomsday prophecies, one child policy
President Carter said the world would run out of oil by 2010
23 Sep 2015 Leave a comment
in energy economics, environmental economics, politics - USA Tags: doomsday prophecies, Oil prices, peak oil
President Carter said the world would run out of oil by 2010
realclimatescience.com/2015/06/presid… http://t.co/flmIxYOFdd—
Steve Goddard (@SteveSGoddard) June 22, 2015
How is peak oil going?
20 Sep 2015 Leave a comment
in economic history, energy economics, environmental economics Tags: commodity prices, doomsday prophecies, peak oil
Are we really running out of oil? As it turns out, we're discovering more every year. buff.ly/1LhV947 http://t.co/fdxxk5fNpi—
HumanProgress.org (@humanprogress) August 19, 2015
In 1985, Obama’s science advisor John Holdren predicted that by now we’d be approaching a billion CO2-related deaths from famine
28 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in environmental economics, global warming, politics - USA Tags: climate alarmists, cranks, doomsday profits, doomsday prophecies, global warming, Quacks
How is the environment going under the ravages of 21st century capitalism
22 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, economic history, economics of regulation, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, politics - USA Tags: doomsday prophecies, doomsday prophets, environmental law, environmental protection, environmental regulation, free market environmentalism, green scaremongering, tear pollution, The Great Escape, The Great Fact, water pollution
U.S. population has grown since 1980, yet pollution rates either haven't moved or are falling. buff.ly/1ILu7RM http://t.co/PXriaKlsZO—
HumanProgress.org (@humanprogress) August 14, 2015
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