Exchange-rate models fit very well for the U.S. dollar in the 21st century. A “standard” model that includes real interest rates and a measure of expected inflation for the U.S. and the foreign country, the U.S. comprehensive trade balance, and measures of global risk and liquidity demand is well-supported in the data for the U.S. […]
Finally, exchange rate models seem to work pretty well
Finally, exchange rate models seem to work pretty well
14 Aug 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic history, financial economics, history of economic thought, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA Tags: exchange rates, monetary policy
Thought and Details on the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
30 Jul 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, economic history, history of economic thought, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetarism, monetary economics, unemployment Tags: monetary policy
The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level has been percolating among monetary theorists for over three decades: Eric Leeper being the first to offer a formalization of the idea, with Chris Sims and Michael Woodford soon contributed to its further development. But the underlying idea that the taxation power of the state is essential for […]
Thought and Details on the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
Treasury says one thing in a speech but quite another in the BEFU
28 Jul 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, inflation targeting, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, unemployment Tags: monetary policy
I picked up The Post this morning to find the lead story headlined “Recession hits homes harder than businesses”, reporting a speech given earlier this week by Treasury’s deputy secretary and chief economic adviser Dominick Stephens. There was an account of the same speech, but with some different material, on BusinessDesk a couple of days […]
Treasury says one thing in a speech but quite another in the BEFU
Treasury wanting to use fiscal policy more
23 Jul 2024 Leave a comment
in fiscal policy, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, public economics Tags: monetary policy
Government departments are now all required by law to write and publish a Long-term Insights Briefing at least every three years. and they have to consult the public on both choice of topic and the draft report The Public Service Commission gives its take on these provisions here Count me more than a little sceptical. […]
Treasury wanting to use fiscal policy more
Flooding Housing Policy
22 Jul 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economics of regulation, law and economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, property rights, urban economics Tags: housing affordability, land supply, monetary policy
The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment. Brian Easton writes – Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the […]
Flooding Housing Policy
Still avoiding responsibility
09 Jul 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: monetary policy
I was away when Reserve Bank chief economist Paul Conway gave his recent speech, “The road back to 2% inflation”, and since I didn’t see any material commentary on it I didn’t bother going back to it when I got home. But my son – honours student researching monetary policy (anyone wanting a young economist […]
Still avoiding responsibility
Monetary Policy and the Great Crash of 1929: A Bursting Bubble or Collapsing Fundamentals?
11 Jun 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic growth, economic history, great depression, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, monetarism, monetary economics Tags: monetary policy
By Timothy Cogley. He was then at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1999). He is now at New York University. “In recent years, a number of economists have expressed concern that the stock market is overvalued. Some have compared the situation with the 1920s, warning that the market may be headed for a…
Monetary Policy and the Great Crash of 1929: A Bursting Bubble or Collapsing Fundamentals?
Comparing Treasury and Reserve Bank forecasts
06 Jun 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: monetary policy
I put a range of charts on Twitter late last week illustrating why, from a macroeconomic perspective, I found the government’s Budget deeply underwhelming. I won’t repeat them but will just show two here. The first is the Treasury’s estimate of how the bit of the operating deficit not explained just by swings in the […]
Comparing Treasury and Reserve Bank forecasts
Two central banks
18 May 2024 Leave a comment
in economic history, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand Tags: monetary policy
Michael Reddell writes – I got curious yesterday about how the Australia/New Zealand real exchange rate had changed over the last decade, and so dug out the data on the changes in the two countries’ CPIs. Over the 10 years from March 2014 to March 2024, New Zealand’s CPI had risen by 30.3 per cent […]
Two central banks
How good was Paul Samuelson’s macroeconomics?
25 Feb 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic history, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, Milton Friedman, monetary economics Tags: monetary policy, wage and price controls
Reading the new Nicholas Wapshott book and also Krugman’s review (NYT) of it, it all seemed a little too rosy to me. So I went back and took a look at Paul Samuelson the macroeconomist. I regret that I cannot report any good news, in fact Samuelson was downright poor — you might say awful […]
How good was Paul Samuelson’s macroeconomics?
What’s the Right Interest Rate for the Fed Anyway?
08 Feb 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, inflation targeting, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, unemployment Tags: monetary policy
Standard models watched by economists at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere suggest that rates should now be lowerBy Justin Lahart of The WSJ. Excerpt:”So where should rates be? There has been a lot of focus recently on the long-term neutral rate—the just-right level of rates for when inflation is at the Fed’s 2% target, and…
What’s the Right Interest Rate for the Fed Anyway?
The Conway speech
08 Feb 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, fiscal policy, inflation targeting, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, unemployment Tags: monetary policy
I’ve been rather tied up with other stuff for the last few weeks (including here) which is why I’ve not previously gotten round to writing about the first piece of monetary policy communications from our Reserve Bank this year. That was the “speech” by the Bank’s chief economist (and MPC) member Paul Conway given to […]
The Conway speech
Avoiding scrutiny
19 Jan 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economics of bureaucracy, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: monetary policy
Regular readers will recall that I have, intermittently, been on the trail of the approach taken to the selection (and rejection) of external MPC members when the current crop were first appointed in 2019. I have been pursuing the matter since a highly credible person who was interested in being considered for appointment told me that […]
Avoiding scrutiny
How Were So Many Economists So Wrong About the Recession?
30 Dec 2023 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, unemployment Tags: monetary policy
That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, I thought it was time to call out all the Orwellian rewriting of intellectual history going on, so here goes: As Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said last week: “So many economists were saying there’s no way for inflation to get back to normal without it entailing a […]
How Were So Many Economists So Wrong About the Recession?
Friedman and Schwartz agreed with Anderson, Tollison and Shughart on the public choice origins of the Great Contraction!
28 Dec 2023 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, business cycles, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, great depression, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, Milton Friedman, monetarism, monetary economics, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: monetary policy
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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