Source: Newspaper support in UK general elections | News | The Guardian
Who do the London newspapers vote for?
17 Sep 2015 Leave a comment
in economic history, economics of media and culture, Public Choice Tags: British politics, expressive voting, London, London newspaper market, media bias, rational ignorance, rational rationality
@TheGreenParty Open minded, a little unstable @NZGreens
15 Sep 2015 Leave a comment
in politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: British greens, British politics, economics of personality traits, expressive voting, New Zealand Greens, rational ignorance, rational rationality, votor demographics
https://twitter.com/LSEpoliticsblog/status/636528821211123712/photo/1
The large differences in personality types between Green voters and Labour voters is one of the first explanations I have seen as to why someone joins and votes for one over the other given both are left-wing parties with fewer and fewer differences in policy.
How does political party affiliation affect return rates for lost wallets? buff.ly/1AaWng8 http://t.co/7lm2pgUD4h—
LSE Politics&Policy (@LSEpoliticsblog) May 18, 2015
"The socio-economic base of Labour support is more spread out than that of the Tories" buff.ly/1IJB8na http://t.co/uDH5nYVIPu—
LSE Politics&Policy (@LSEpoliticsblog) May 05, 2015
Much higher house prices and the political sustainability of a return of inflation
13 Sep 2015 1 Comment
in business cycles, economic history, global financial crisis (GFC), inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, urban economics Tags: expressive voting, housing affordability, inflation rates, median voter theorem, mortgage belt, mortgage rates, rational ignorance, rational rationality
Mortgage interest rates were last in the double digits in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Since then, housing prices have exploded in New Zealand and barely paused for the recession in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis.
Source: International House Price Database – Dallas Fed; Housing prices deflated by personal consumption expenditure deflator.
With house prices and mortgages several times what they used to be, the ability for any household income to absorb the sudden return of high mortgage interest rates because of a return of even moderate CPI inflation and double-digit mortgage rates is well-nigh impossible, politically.
Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Mortgage rates and Bryan Perry, Household Incomes in New Zealand: trends in indicators of inequality and hardship 1982 to 2014 – Ministry of Social Development, Wellington (August 2015) Table C.5.
The chart above shows that the number of 25 to 44-year-olds in New Zealand who have more than 30% of their income going to housing expenses has doubled since 1988 to nearly a third of all households. The number of 45 to 64-year-olds who pay more than 30% of their income in housing expenses has quadrupled to 20%. That is a lot of voters who would be offended by mismanagement of monetary policy.
None of these households would have much left over to absorb an increasing mortgage interest rates. That is very different political arithmetic too the last time both mortgage rates and CPI inflation were in double digits, which was more than 20 years ago. Not many New Zealanders under the age of 40 or 45 have an adult memory of high inflation and high mortgage rates.
What Can We Learn From National Primary Polling?
22 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: 2016 presidential election, expressive voting, opinion polling, rational ignorance, rational rationality, voter demographics
The 2012 race was even crazier. GOP voters flirted seriously with nearly every other candidate before finally settling on Romney.
via What Can We Learn From National Primary Polling? Virtually Nothing. – Reason.com.
@nzlabour @NZGreens There just isn’t no missing million out there hanging out for that hard-left clarion call @rsalmond
22 Aug 2015 1 Comment
in applied price theory, constitutional political economy, economics of information, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: British Labour Party, British politics, economics of advertising, Eric Crampton, expressive voting, false consciousness, Leftover Left, median voter theorem, New Zealand Greens, New Zealand Labour Party, rational ignorance, rational rationality
Rob Salmond has written a great blog this week on the ideological spectrum of New Zealand voters based on the New Zealand Election Study.
In the course of his blog he drove a tremendously big stake through the heart of the old left fantasy that if Labour or Greens goes left, a large block of voters not voting for them now or not voting at all (the missing million voters) will shake lose its false consciousness and follow you:
But “pulling the centre back towards the left” is massively, massively hard.
You win those people over by being relevant to them as they are, not by telling them they’re worldview needs a rethink. It is just basic psychology. Tell people they were right all along; they like you. Tell people they were wrong all along; they don’t.
And if you win a majority of centrists, you win. The New Zealand Election Study series records six MMP elections in New Zealand – the three where Labour did best among centrists were the three Labour won.
That’s another message from the academic study I quoted above – in Germany, Sweden, and the UK, the elections where the left did best among centrists were the elections where they took power. As their popularity among centrists declined, so did their seat share.
What is more disturbing for the old left fantasy of the missing million is voting for the Labour Party or Greens is correlated with ignorance rather than knowledge.
Furthermore, the more people know about economics, the less likely they are to vote for the left as Eric Crampton explains:
When they get to the polls, the ignorant are significantly more likely to support the Labour Party (4% increase in predicted probability for a standard deviation increase in ignorance) and significantly less likely to support the Green party (1% decrease in predicted probability) and United Future (0.5% decrease in predicted probability).
Understanding economics strongly predicted supporting National in 2005, which comes as little surprise: the National Party leader was former Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. A standard deviation increase in our “economic thinking” index correlates with a 5.7% increased probability of voting National, a 1.5% decreased probability of voting NZ First, and a slight decrease in the probability of voting United Future and Maori.
To make matters worse, Crampton found that joining political organisations does little to cure ignorance of politics or otherwise lead to a political awakening. Sometimes active political affiliation reduces ignorance, other times such organisational membership intensifies ignorance.
via Salmond on the centre | Kiwiblog and StephenFranks.co.nz » Blog Archive » Why the left wants everyone to vote.
Net favourability is the name of the presidential primaries game
11 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: 2016 presidential election, expressive voting, rational rationality, rationally parents
Twenty-three percent of GOP voters had a favourable opinion of Trump in a May Washington Post-ABC News poll, while 65 percent viewed him negatively. Eleven percent of Republicans felt strongly favourably toward Trump; 43 percent felt strongly negatively.
via Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why. – The Washington Post.
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
Recent Comments