And the beat goes on – housing prices since 1975 @PeterDunneMP @PhilTwyford

New Zealand housing prices were pretty flat up for the two decades until the passage of the Resource Management Act (RMA) in 1993. They then soared well before any foreign buyers such as from China entered the market.

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Source: International House Price Database – Dallas Fed December 2015; nominal housing prices for each country is deflated by the personal consumption deflator for that country.

Most of the housing price rises were under the watch of a Labour Government – a party which is supposed to look out for working families.

The failure of the Labour Party to nip the problem in the bud when they had a working majority in Parliament means future solutions run into the political problem that any significant increase in supply of land may push many with recent mortgages such as in Auckland into negative equity.

Since they left office in 2008, leaving land supply regulation in a mess, the approach of Labour has been political opportunism rather than supporting RMA reform.

Labour recently admitted the need to increase the supply of land, but have not put forward practical ideas to increase the supply of land.

The National Party is not much better in terms of real solutions to regulatory constraints on the supply of land.

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The causes of housing unaffordability

New low for economic analysis of NZ opposition leader and Dominion Post editorial on housing affordability

The editorial in today’s Dominion Post about the proposed reforms in New Zealand to the Resource Management Act to increase of urban land supply and make housing more affordable actually supported some absolute nonsense economic analysis by the Leader of the Opposition, Andrew Little:

Labour leader Andrew Little says part of the problem is in fact low and in many areas stagnating wages.

That is correct, but this merely points to a huge problem that successive governments have failed to solve. Nor is this Government likely to do much by way of living wage reforms or other non-market solutions.

The alleged professional journalist who wrote this editorial is ignorant of the most basic workings of the economy which he could pick up as an ordinary consumer and home owner.

If consumers become wealthier because of higher wages, they will use this increased income to demand more housing and land.

If the supply of land is fixed or otherwise constrained from expanding much, the only thing that will happen is that the price will go up with more money chasing the same amount of land and housing.

This will benefit the existing home owners in New Zealand. Workers who don’t own homes will simply have to pay more of their now higher wages to buy houses. Once again, the Labour Party betrays the interests of the working class to win middle-class home owner votes.

The one main cause of rising child poverty in New Zealand since the 1980s

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Andrew Atkin explains how housing affordability has been destroyed in New Zealand.

Solutions should reflect the problem definition and analysis: Duncan Garner on child poverty

Duncan Garner wrote a passionate column yesterday in the local paper calling for gutsy action on child poverty.

His analysis of the causes of child poverty in New Zealand was good. Garner’s solutions had nothing to do with what he had identified as the causes of child poverty. As Garner himself wrote:

… in order to tackle poverty it’s important to attempt to define what it means today.

Poverty is children living in crowded, damp homes who don’t get three square meals a day.

They may not have their own bed, they won’t see a doctor when they’re sick and many of them will be admitted to hospital with serious poverty-related illnesses such as respiratory problems and skin infections.

They may live in households where paying the rent accounts for 60 per cent of the family’s income every week.

Garner then discussed the plight of one particular family in Auckland:

The parents are nice people, with seven children.

They shared a tiny home with three other adults and another child.

Dad works full-time at a meat factory and they had been waiting 10 months for a state house. They had beds in the dining room and lounge.

They couldn’t afford the cost of a private rental home. One son, aged 11, had a serious lung problem. I saw poverty in action that day and it was deeply disturbing. I highlighted their plight on my radio show and within weeks a shamed Housing NZ had found them a home.

The family Garner discussed is in a tiny house because they lacked the income to rent a better one. They must rely on social housing provided by government with income related rents.

Recurring through his problem definition is the impact that rising housing costs is having on the poor.

Nonetheless, Garner then advocates cash payments to low income families, a tax credit system seen as more generous and inclusive, and a back to school bonus without addressing the supply of housing.

The evidence is overwhelming in New Zealand that the main driver of the increases in the child poverty since the 1980s is rising housing costs.

In the longer run after housing costs child poverty rates in 2013 were close to double what they were in the late 1980s mainly because housing costs in 2013 were much higher relative to income than they were in the late 1980s.

– Bryan Perry, 2014 Household Incomes Report – Key Findings. Ministry of Social Development (July 2014).

Any policy to reduce child poverty must increase the supply of houses by reducing regulatory restrictions on the supply of land.

The Metropolitan Limit confines the expansion of Auckland beyond the existing built-up area. This regulatory constraint explains the exceptionally high housing price-income ratio of Auckland.

The limit imposed on the horizontal expansion of the city in green fields encourages increases in residential prices. As demand for new housing increases, no new land supply can enter the market and stem price rises in response to this increased demand.

urban limit

If you serious about child poverty, you have to criticise government regulation: the dead hand of the Resource Management Act (RMA) on the poor and the vulnerable.

The fire of truth: the relationship between inequality and economic prosperity in New Zealand since the 1970s

Figure 1: Before Housing Costs Gini coefficient, New Zealand, 1982 – 2013

closertogether.org.nz/nzs-income-inequality-problem claims that NZ income inequality increased very rapidly in the late 1980s and 1990s — faster than in any other wealthy country.

Figure 2 shows that this rapid rise in inequality coincided with the resumption of economic growth after two lost decades: next to no increase in real GDP per working age New Zealander from 1974 to 1992.

Figure 2: Real GDP per New Zealander and Australian aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level with updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1956-2012

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Source: Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics

Perry (2014) found that:

  • Income inequality in New Zealand is at a similar level to Australia, Canada, Italy and Japan (Ginis of 32-33) and a little lower than the UK (34). Countries such as Denmark, Norway, Finland and Belgium have lower than average inequality (Ginis of 25-26). The US and Israel have higher scores of 39.
  • The top 1% in New Zealand received around 8% of all taxable income in 2010 and 2011 (before tax), similar to Norway, Finland and Australia, lower than Ireland and Switzerland (11%) and much lower than the UK and Canada (13%) and the US (18%).
  • The trend for the New Zealand share has been steady at around 8-9% since the mid 1990s, with perhaps a slight fall in the last few years. Many OECD countries saw small rises in the period, and in the USA the top 1% share continued to rise strongly, from 13% to 19%.

Perry (2014) concluded that:

Overall, there is no evidence of any sustained rise or fall in inequality in the last two decades. The level of household disposable income inequality in New Zealand is a little above the OECD median. The share of total income received by the top 1% of individuals is at the low end of the OECD rankings.

This remark by Parry that there is no evidence of any sustained rise or fall in inequality in New Zealand in the last 20 years  is very much at odds with the claim of Closer Together New Zealand that income inequality inequality increased rapidly in the late 1980s and 1990s.

The increase in inequality in New Zealand  was in the late 1980s  and early 1990s. In the early 1990s, a long economic boom started that lasted until the global financial crisis.

Figure 3 : Income Inequality in New Zealand as Assessed by the Gini Coefficient

Source: Perry 2014 derived from Statistics NZ Household Economic Survey (HES) 1982–2012.

Figure 4: Income Inequality in New Zealand as Assessed by the P80/P20 Ratio

Source: Perry 2014 derived from Statistics NZ Household Economic Survey (HES) 1982–2012.

Figures 3 and 4 both show that after housing costs inequality in New Zealand is higher, but has been pretty stable for 20 years as measured by the Gini coefficient and by the P80/P20  ratio. (When individuals are ranked by equivalised household income and then divided into 100 equal groups, each group is called a percentile. If the ranking starts with the lowest income, then the income at the top of the 20th percentile is denoted P20; the income at the top of the 80th percentile is called P80. The ratio of the value at the top of the 80th percentile to the value at the top of the 20th percentile is called the P80/20 ratio and is often used as a measure of income inequality).

Figure 5: Proportion of HHs with housing cost outgoings to income of greater than 30%, by income quintile

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Source: Perry (2014); OTI = outgoings to income

Figure 5 shows that

  • for the bottom quintile (Q1), the proportion with high outgoings to income (OTI) steadily reduced from 48% in 1994 to 34% in 2004, as unemployment fell, employment and income rose, and income-related rental policies were introduced in 2000 for those in HNZC houses. From HES 2009 to HES 2013 the proportion rose strongly from 33% to 42%, the highest it has been in the last 25 years except for the peak of 48% in 1994.
  • For households with incomes in the second quintile (Q2) there was a strong rise from the 1980s through to the mid 1990s, followed by a relatively flat trend to 2004. Since 2004, the proportion with high OTIs has risen strongly from 27% to 36%.
  • For the third quintile (Q3) the proportion with high OTIs settled at around 30% for 2007 to 2013, up from 21% in 2004 and 10% in 1988.

Rising housing costs in New Zealand have one explanation, which is restrictions on the supply of land under the Resource Management Act.

HT: nzchildren.co.nz/income_inequality for figures 3 and 4.

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