Who Is More Irrational – Consumers or Regulators?

A study by Ted Gayer and W. Kip Viscusi looked into this implied irrationality of consumers. They have found no empirical evidence to support the view that if consumers are so irrational that government agencies must prohibit certain energy consuming products for us to make the right choices:

Rather than accept the implications that consumers and firms are acting so starkly against their economic interest, a more plausible explanation is that there is something incorrect in the assumptions being made in the regulatory impact analyses.

Indeed, upon closer inspection it is apparent that there is no empirical evidence provided for the types of consumer failures alleged.

Even the EPA acknowledged this logical gap in its economic analysis of energy efficiency regulations:

it is a conundrum from an economic perspective that these large fuel savings have not been provided by automakers and purchased by consumers

Not surprisingly Kip Viscusi observed that

The regulatory impact analyses examined in this study contain virtually no empirical evidence to support the irrationality proposition.

• This proposition ignores the fact that consumers and firms purchase products based on a number of factors—only one of which is energy efficiency.

• Government agencies exhibit a parochial bias by ignoring all product attributes other than energy efficiency.

Simple rules for a complex society – Thomas Sowell

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The acute pretence to knowledge of elites – Thomas Sowell

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Seeing like the state

It is the highest impertinence and presumption, therefore, in kings and ministers, to pretend to watch over the economy of private people, and to restrain their expence either by sumptuary laws, or by prohibiting the importation of foreign luxuries. They are themselves always, and without any exception, the greatest spendthrifts in the society. Let them look well after their own expence, and they may safely trust private people with theirs. If their own extravagance does not ruin the state, that of their subjects never will.  - Adam Smith

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Ludwig von Mises on how people will sacrifice intellect before they will give up their political dreams

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Zealots cannot countenance trade-offs and diminishing returns – Thomas Sowell

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It’s so much easier to play the man, than the ball – Thomas Sowell

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Alchian and Allen on investment advisors (and currency speculation too)

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The Keynesian vision of macroeconomic policy

A market economy is subject to fluctuations which need to be corrected, can be corrected, and therefore should be corrected

Franco Modiglani

Milton Friedman’s vision is far more circumspect because of the limits on the information people have and their ability to update that information. His critique has nothing to do with his views on macroeconomics:

The central problem is not designing a highly sensitive [monetary] instrument that offsets instability introduced by other factors [in the economy], but preventing monetary arrangements becoming a primary source of instability…

Keynesians have a host of metaphors in their rhetorical arsenal; one frequently voiced is that a wise government should “lean against the wind” when choosing policy. Friedman jumped on this:

We seldom know which way the economic wind is blowing until several months after the event, yet to be effective, we need to know which way the wind is going to be blowing when the measures we take now will be effective, itself a variable date that may be a half year or a year or two from now. Leaning today against next year’s wind is hardly an easy task in the present state of meteorology

Friedman’s remarks, as even his strong critics admit, strike at the heart of any activist stabilisation policy. By meeting Keynesians on their own theoretical turf and scrutinising their practice, Friedman manages to produce objections that both Keynesians and non-Keynesians must take seriously.

A key part of any response to Friedman rests on the ability of forecasters to do their jobs with tolerable accuracy. After reading the annual reports of the Fed, Milton Friedman noticed the following pattern:

In the years of prosperity, monetary policy is a potent weapon, the skilful handling of which deserves the credit for the favourable course of events; in years of adversity, other forces are the important sources of economic change, monetary policy had little leeway, and only the skilful handling of the exceedingly limited powers available prevented conditions from being even worse

Central banks pay due to the implications of the leads and lags  on monetary policy only as an ex-post facto rationalisation for disappointment.

Economists, using charts or high-speed computer models, can accurately forecast the future

crystal_ball-551x700

Many studies, formal and informal, have been made of the record of forecasting by economists, and it has been consistently abysmal.

Forecasters often complain that they can do well enough as long as current trends continue; what they have difficulty in doing is catching changes in trend. But of course there is no trick in extrapolating current trends into the near future.

You don’t need sophisticated computer models for that; you can do it better and far more cheaply by using a ruler.

The real trick is precisely to forecast when and how trends will change, and forecasters have been notoriously bad at that. No economist forecast the depth of the 1981–82 depression, and none predicted the strength of the 1983 boom.

The next time you are swayed by the jargon or seeming expertise of the economic forecaster, ask yourself this question: If he can really predict the future so well, why is he wasting his time putting out newsletters or doing consulting when he himself could be making trillions of dollars in the stock and commodity markets?

Murray Rothbard

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The pretence to knowledge

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The first six weeks of microeconomics 101 will see you through your entire public service career

Supply -Demand Chart

I  was not in Canberra for that long before I ended up agreeing with G. Warren Nutter:

Why governments cannot pick winners

The salary of one top hedge fund manager exceeds the entire payroll of any of the government departments in New Zealand.

To get on the list of top 25 hedge fund manager you must earn at least $300 million a year. The best of these earned $3 billion last year.

Anyone who was any good at picking the share market would certainly not accept government wages.

Government employees have neither the aptitude nor the taste for risk that betting it all every day and losing everything perhaps requires.

Everything you know about teenage pregnancies is wrong

Most people look upon teenage pregnancies from the perspective of their class.

Middle-class parents horrified that their daughter might not go to university and all the benefits that entails, including a better class of husband.

But look at what a teenage pregnancy is for a young woman was not destined for the University and the fast lane.

You go from being an extra on the stage of life to being a mother. Instant respect.

Everyone’s cheering for you. No matter how far your fall, now matter how badly you screw up, there are people ready to help you find your way back for the sake of the children.

Ethnographic studies show that teenage mothers looked down on their contemporaries that delay having a child into their 20s.

Teenage mums to be start to clean up their act, they get off drugs, they get off alcohol.

Most of all for the first time in their lives, these teenagers have a purpose – to be a mother.

They don’t marry the father because they do not look upon him as husband material.

In many cases, the young mothers hope that becoming a father might turn him into husband material.

The reason why they don’t in the end marry the father is the persistent antisocial behaviour of the fathers, and most of all, their persistent infidelity.

Teenage mums know what they’re doing.

All too many do-gooders  and busy bodies  will look upon teenage pregnancies as a mistake – an accident – somehow the product of a lack of knowledge of contraception or access to the same.

This myth persisted despite the invention of the Internet by Al Gore and the considerable amount of information you can find out about the facts of life on the Internet with the help of those cell phones most teenagers have.

It’s far easier to explain behaviour you think is foolish from your own perspective rather than that the perspective of the teenager concerned and the options that they have before them.

It’s no coincidence that a large number of teenage mums did not finish high school and don’t have much to look forward in their working life. The biggest thing in their life will be being a mother. Why wait?

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