Unions have been on the way out for a long time

Policy bubbles alert: can more money reduce child poverty?

Cover: What Money Can't Buy in PAPERBACKSusan Mayer in her book What Money Can’t Buy found very little evidence to support the widely held belief that parental income has a significant effect on children’s life outcomes. Mayer:

  • Challenged the assumption that poverty directly causes poor health, behavioural problems, and a host of other problems for children;
  • Also stated that there was no correlation but a coincidence with a missing third factor, which was jobs; and
  • Found that household conditions are highly responsive to income but how it is spent is what matters more.

These findings were Susan Mayer are of profound importance because far too many people believe the solution to child poverty is to give the poor more money. What could be simpler.

Capitalism have been giving the poor more money for centuries now. This great enrichment dwarfs anything that redistribution and egalitarian politics and the welfare state has done in the 20th century.

Mayer said that her findings do not endorse massive cuts in welfare:

My results do not show that we can cut income support programs with impunity…

Indeed, they suggest that income support programs have been relatively successful in maintaining the material living standard of many poor children.

Mayer found that non-monetary factors play a bigger role than previously thought in determining how children  overcome disadvantage as she explains.

Parent-child interactions appear to be important for children’s success, but the study shows little evidence that a parent’s income has a large influence on parenting practices.

Mayer said that if money alone were responsible for overcoming such problems as unwed pregnancy, low educational achievement and male idleness, states with higher welfare benefits could expect to see reductions in these problems. In reality,

once we control all relevant state characteristics, the apparent effect of increasing Aid to Families with Dependent Children benefits is very small

Mayer is of the view that many of the activities that improve children’s outcomes are more related to parenting choices than to income:

They mainly reflect parents’ tastes and values.

Books appear to benefit children because parents who buy a lot of books are likely to read to their children.

Parents who do not buy books for their children are probably not likely to read to them even if the books are free, and parents who do not take their children on outings may be less likely to spend time with them in other ways.

Among her findings, which have largely survive the test of time, are:

  • Higher parental income has little impact on reading and mathematics test scores.
  • Higher income increases the number of years children attend school by only one-fifth of a year.
  • Higher income does not reduce the amount of time sons are idle as young adults.
  • Higher income reduces the probability of daughters growing up to be single mothers by 8 to 20 percent.

Mayer found that as parents have more money to spend, they usually spend the extra money on food, especially food eaten in restaurants; larger homes; and on more automobiles.

As a result, children are likely to be better housed and better fed, but not necessarily better educated or better prepared for high-income jobs. This is her key conclusion about what money can and cannot buy:

If we are asking specifically about the relationship between parental income and children’s outcomes, a fairly clear answer is emerging: parental income itself has a modest effect on children’s outcomes and this effect is not necessarily greater for children from poor families compared to children from rich families.

Mayer’s analysis in many ways reflects her own life story. She divorced in the mid-1970s and had so many money troubles that she had trouble paying the rent.

She remarried in the early 1980s and had a second child. This second child at a comfortable middle-class upbringing. The mother went on to complete a Ph.D. and ended up as head of the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago.

Mayer noticed that both of her children turned out pretty much the same despite the older child was raised in poor circumstances. The common factor to this success was they had the same mother.

Withering away of the proletariat alert: the New Zealand Labour Party is redefining up the working class

The vanguard of the working class has decided the working classes are a bit too small these days to survive politically. The party vote of the New Zealand Labour Party was its lowest since its foundation in 1919 in the New Zealand 2014 general election.

Small-businesses owners, the self-employed and those on contracts are “workers”, Labour’s new leader Andrew Little says. Little has used his first major speech as leader to challenge Labour to update its definition of working people:

People on middle incomes, people who own a small business, people who work on contract who are doing their best to earn a crust and get ahead, they are feeling forgotten – mostly because in policy terms they are

Back in the day, a large number of Labour Party politicians were asked why did they join the Labour Party. Their answer was the Labour Party promised a better deal for the working man.

On the decline

Unfortunately for the New Zealand Labour Party, the traditional working class is simply are not enough votes to form a government even when you add in the precariat. The party vote of the Labour Party in New Zealand in the last two general elections is been in about 24%. Two thirds of the  New Zealand electorate gave their party vote to non-left parties. The party vote of the Labour Party and the green party summed to only 33% of the vote.

At the bottom: The 'precariat' group is 'marked by the lack of any significant amount of economic, cultural or social capital', said Professor Mike Savage, of the London School of Economics and Political Science

What is worse, if you are to believe these Daily Mail graphics, both the traditional working class and precariat area are a bit old, in case of the working class, they are retirement age. The average age of the working class is 66 and the average age of the precariat is 50.

Financially insecure

Even the emergent service worker class is a bit of a disappointment for the Labour Part because they don’t seem to be the stock of shop-floor militancy, higher taxes, more regulation and a more generous welfare state. The emergent service workers have semi-skilled and skilled jobs with career structures and the potential for self-employment.

All in all, the left-wing political parties in New Zealand are in a bit of trouble.The green party is tapped out at a party vote of 10% because their hard left policies limit their growth into the middle class vote. The withering away of the proletariat is leading to a withering away the Labour Party.

Both the Labour Party and the Greens are full of university educated, middle-class radicals whose higher tax and bigger government agenda simply doesn’t appeal to the middle-class vote.

On the withering away of the Labour Party

Bang in the middle

John Quiggin made an interesting point the other day that explains why the Australian Labor Party caucus is no longer the cream of the working class:

In 1945, the largest single occupational group in Australia (and an archetypal group of Labor supporters) were railwaymen (there were almost no women in the industry).

By the 1970s, the largest occupational group, also becoming the archetypal group of Labor supporters. were schoolteachers.

Quiggin was not making the point I am making, but his data was instructive.

On the decline

The traditional labour voter of days gone by was socially conservative, fiscally conservative, strict on educational standards and believed in hard work, self-improvement and being frugal. They agreed with Dalton Trumbo who said:

I never considered the working class anything other than something to get out of.

David Friedman on Marxist economics

Image

Joan Robinson on capitalist exploitation – the horror, the horror

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Withering away the proletariat alert: what do what’s left of the working class do?

On the decline

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Who wins from the perennial gale of creative destruction

  • In 1900, <10% of families owned a stove, or had access to electricity or phones
  • In 1915, <10% of families owned a car
  • In 1930, <10% of families owned a refrigerator or clothes washer
  • In 1945, <10% of families owned a clothes dryer or air-conditioning
  • In 1960, <10% of families owned a dishwasher or colour TV
  • In 1975, <10% of families owned a microwave
  • In 1990, <10% of families had a cell phone or access to the Internet

HT: The Atlantic

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