Offsetting behaviour alert: What did the bombing of Germany (and the CIA interrogation program) achieve?

Both the bombing of Germany and the CIA interrogation programmes of captured Al Qaeda terrorists have one thing in common. Their main achievement was not their intention.

Their main achievement was through the offsetting behaviour of their opponent to counter the bombing of Germany and the CIA interrogation program, respectively.

Much is made of whether the bombing of Germany did much damage to its targets and disrupted the German war economy.

Graph to show accuracy of night bombing of German cities; AIR 16/487

The main benefit of the bombing of Germany is it destroyed the German air force. More than that, and much sooner than the destruction of the German air force by 1945, much of the German air force was withdrawn from the Eastern Front and the landing beaches of Normandy to defend Germany from bombing attack. The Germans conceded complete air superiority by the time of D-Day and conceded air supremacy to the Russian air force.

Another big bonus was a large number of those famous German 88 howitzers were withdrawn from the front for home air defence.

Another bonus was a substantial part of German aircraft production was moved to defensive capabilities rather than an attack capability. Munitions productions was redirected towards production of antiaircraft shells and flak. Substantial effort had to be redirected towards the construction of bomb shelters.

What cannot be denied is that 10 years ago when captured terrorists were in a sufficiently integrated organisation that they had useful information about each other, there was bipartisan support in the US Congress to be tough in interrogations. Congress knew exactly what was happening through classified briefings to select committees.

One of the results of these interrogations is it broke up Al Qaeda as a network. It degraded Al Qaeda as an organisation capable of launching major attacks with key terrorists at the centre with the skills and determination to be able to organise these large-scale attacks.

Because captured terrorists would be interrogated thoroughly, Al Qaeda had to change into a far more decentralised and less effective network to be less at risk to captured members informing on them sooner or later.

In its early days, Al Qaeda was happy to have key people going around with lots of information in their heads and coordinating everything from the centre because they thought they wouldn’t be interrogated thoroughly if captured. That is no longer the case.  Al Qaeda translates as The Base. The jihad was supposed to have  a structure, leadership  and central direction and financing.

Al Qaeda was far more effective when directed from the centre. These days it can barely mount a random attack in the street by a mentally disturbed, barely literate recent recruit.

Anything more than these random attacks on the street risk exposure to the authorities through electronic interception and interrogation of captured terrorists followed quickly by a missile through the car window somewhere in the Middle East while tweeting.

As  President Obama noted around the time that Bin Laden was killed, 20 out of the top 30 in the management structure of Al Qaeda had shared that fate  under his administration along with their replacements not long after stepping into the dead man’s shoes.

‘CIA interrogation methods made America and its allies safer’ Former CIA director contends

The renegade Left and the laws of war

The renegade Left is highly selective in its recall of international humanitarian law. On torture, perfect recall, strict construction and may the heavens fall. William Levi in the Yale Law Journal in 2009 argued that

  • except for water-boarding, every interrogation technique authorized by the Bush Administration had been authorized before 9/11 and considered to fall within the legal constraints of the Geneva Conventions.
  • Techniques such as sleep deprivation, and standing as a stress position that were understood at times before 9/11 to be lawful for use on prisoners of war.

When it comes to the reason for being for international humanitarian law, a stout ignorance infects the renegade Left and may innocent civilians be massacred.

The purpose of international humanitarian law is to ensure strict differentiation between civilians and combatants and to provide for the detention and treatment of those captured.

Humane detention to the end of the armed conflict increases both the incentive to give quarter and to surrender when the position is hopeless.

The requirement to carry weapons openly, dress in some sort of uniform etc. is to ensure that the enemy is easy to distinguish from afar so that troops do not get trigger happy around civilians and refugees. This is the fundamental purpose of international humanitarian law: trying to save civilians from the fighting.

The most severe punishments was allowed for spies, saboteurs, infiltrators, francs-tireurs and guerrillas so that not carrying their weapons openly and not dressing in some sort of recognisable uniform etc., was a self-inflected death sentence upon capture. Combatants who do not wear a uniform that is clearly distinguishable at the distance and do not carry their weapons openly are war criminals.

In the Battle of the Bulge, the Nazi infiltrators in American uniforms lost all interest in their missions once the first few who were captured were court-martialled and shot within 24 hours.

The Hostages Trial at Nuremburg dismissed some murder charges against some German commanders because partisan fighters in Southwest Europe could not be considered lawful belligerents under Article 1 of the 1907 Hague convention. The Tribunal stated:

We are obliged to hold that such guerrillas were francs tireurs who, upon capture, could be subjected to the death penalty.

Consequently, no criminal responsibility attaches to the defendant List because of the execution of captured partisans…

Is Drone commander-in-chief’s solution to waterboarding better

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Americans Have Grown More Supportive Of Torture | FiveThirtyEight

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Americans Have Grown More Supportive Of Torture | FiveThirtyEight.

Let’s not kid ourselves: Most Americans are fine with torture, even when you call it “torture” – The Washington Post

torture

FT_14.12.9_torture2

Let’s not kid ourselves: Most Americans are fine with torture, even when you call it “torture” – The Washington Post.

Jihad for Dummies buyers get 12 years

Al-Qaeda’s world: A map of the group’s shifting global network

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The Economic Impact of the War on Terrorism with Milton Friedman

Why mass electronic surveillance is so important in the war on terror

Islamic Jihadists seem to be a bunch of windbags. First thing they do is tell their friends, acquaintances and everyone down at the local mosque what they plan to do. Out of a spirit of public duty or hope of reward, someone informs the police or their chatter is picked up through electronic eavesdropping.

20120712-220px-Abu_Faraj_Al-Libbi.jpg

A surprising number of Jihadists, including Bin Laden’s courier, have been located by listening in on their mum. Jihadists tend to be mummies boys.

One of the strengths of the Jihadists terrorist networks, their decentralised and spontaneous nature, is also one of their weaknesses. There appears to be no recruitment standards or admission criteria or any other mechanism for screening out the indiscreet and those prone to big talk.

The fact that idiot David Hicks got into Al Qaeda and the Taleban in Afghanistan indicates that they seem to be not in any way suspicious of infiltration.

A Report on ‘Can Hearts and Minds be Bought?’ The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq by Eli Berman, Jacob N. Shapiro and Joseph H. Felter

jamie4400's avatarA World of Economics

600_iraq

Can hearts and minds be bought? A metaphorical question posed to ask whether government spending can aid counterinsurgency. In their paper, Berman et al. seek to answer this basic question using current literature, recent data and a model of counterinsurgency.

They chose Iraq for their research because it is presently significant, there is a large amount of data and most importantly, because it is characterised by insurgency and not by ‘conventional warfare’. It is this characteristic, argued by Berman et al. that will be seen more often in future conflicts that is so crucial to understand. Another important facet to note is that current ‘US Army counterinsurgency doctrine’ is not based on any social scientific theory; thereby making the need to understand insurgency more vital to aid spending.

By using current data, Berman et al. find on the whole that the correlation between reconstruction spending and violence across Iraqi districts…

View original post 2,864 more words

The war against terror really is a war

Some pretend that the war on Al-Qaeda is not a war and attacking them with drones is illegal under international law. Under this theory, terrorism is a crime, not an act of war. Terrorists such as Australia’s own David Hicks are just criminals. These criticisms rest on profound misconceptions about the international laws of war.

The hijacking of airliners was defined by the UN in the 1970s as aerial piracy.

The 9/11 terrorists were air pirates. NATO and allied military entered Afghanistan to subdue the home base of these brigands and those that harboured them:

  • Naval and military deployments against pirate’s lairs date back thousands of years.
  • The first war of the USA was with the Barbary Pirates in 1801 to 1805, with another war in 1815. These pirates waged war against the shipping of other nations, seized cargoes and ships, and sold captives into slavery.
  • Punitive expeditions against bandits were commonplace too, such as chasing Pancho Villa and his gang of bandits back into Mexico in 1916.
  • The U.S. military recently attacked a Somalian maritime pirate camp to rescue hostages. EU naval forces have also attacked these pirate lairs to destroy boats and supplies.

The case for attacking Afghanistan was as a limited, punitive expedition to degrade it as a terrorist base camp. That mission was accomplished in 2001 and 2002.

Does Al-Qaeda and other terrorist militias wear uniforms and carry their weapons openly as required by international law to qualify as a lawful combatant? Al-Qaeda and other terrorist militias routinely commit war crimes under the Geneva conventions by intermingling with civilians and by “locating military objectives within or near densely populated areas”.

International humanitarian law permits members of the armed forces of a state that is party to an international armed conflict and associated militias who meet the requisite criteria to wear uniforms, carry their weapons openly, and directly engage in hostilities. They are generally considered lawful, or privileged, combatants who, when captured, may not be prosecuted for taking part in hostilities as long as they respect international humanitarian law.

The whole purpose of requiring belligerents to wear uniforms recognisable at a distance and to carry their weapons openly is to protect civilians. Each side can see the other clearly and has no excuse for getting ‘trigger happy’ around civilians.

It is the terrorists who violate the laws of war by hiding themselves and their bases within civilian populations, thereby drawing unwilling and unsuspecting innocents into the fighting.

If civilians directly engage in hostilities, they are considered unlawful or unprivileged combatants or belligerents. They may be prosecuted under the law of the detaining state. The Allies detained 11 million POWs (and captured enemy personnel) without charge or trial by the time World War II ended. None were allowed access to a lawyer or had the right to seek bail.

Because the USA and others are at war with Al-Qaeda, they can use force to conduct hostilities against the enemy and those who harbour them. The Taliban was warned. A Wiki has this nice quote by Stone (1921):

When the territorial sovereign is too weak or is unwilling to enforce respect for international law, a state which is wronged may find it necessary to invade the territory and to chastise the individuals who violate its rights and threaten its security.

When a nation goes to war, it seeks to defeat and subdue its enemy to prevent further attacks.

The U.S. and allied military and intelligence services are legally and morally free to target Al-Qaeda for an attack whether they are on the front lines or behind them, with or without warning and without any attempt to capture.

A corollary of the right to kill enemy personnel is that the deaths of civilians that occur in legitimate attacks against military targets are not illegal. It is pious to deny this. It denies the most basic and best understood of moral distinctions: between premeditated murder and unintended killing.

It is the central principle of the international laws of war that innocent civilians should not be targeted. On the other hand, the rules of war accept the death of civilians in or near legitimate military targets.

Al-Qaeda will never follow the rules of war. Al-Qaeda gains its only tactical advantages by systematically flouting them and hiding among civilians.

The renegade Left for decades wanted terrorists to be treated as prisoners of war, and thereby held to the end of the war and not otherwise punished. Now, the renegade Left don’t want terrorists to be held as captured combatants to the end of the war. Instead, they want them to have the right to apply for bail.

As part of law-fare, one or two fathers applied to the U.S. courts for injunctions to stop drone attacks on their wayward sons on a best friend basis. They failed and were reminded by the Court that if they were so worried, their sons could pop down to the nearest U.S. embassy and discuss their fears: surrender for extradition.

Al-Qaeda and 9/11 will not go away if only history were different and the USA had kept more to itself prior to 9/11. The war against Al-Qaeda started from the world as it was on 9/11 for all its flaws. After 9/11, mutual defence obligations were triggered under NATO and ANZUS, in addition to the UN resolutions. Navies and armies have fought pirates and bandits for thousands of years.

P.S. All terrorists and members of the Taliban are war criminals because:

  • Article 51 (7) of Protocol I of the Geneva Convention states: “The presence or movements of the civilian population or individual civilians shall not be used to render certain points or areas immune from military operations, in particular attempts to shield military objectives from attacks or to shield, favour or impede military operations”.
  • The Geneva Convention also holds that “The presence of a protected person may not be used to render certain points of areas immune from military operations”. (Geneva Convention Relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War, 1949, Laws of Armed Conflicts, 495, 511.)
  • The Rome Statute is clear that “utilizing the presence of civilians or other protected persons to render certain points, areas or military forces immune from military operations is recognized as a war crime by Article 8 (2) (b) (xxiii)”.

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