#OTD 20th anniversary of the first attack on food by @Greenpeace @Greenpeacenz
11 Oct 2016 Leave a comment
Super-forecasters by Philip Tetlock
06 Oct 2016 Leave a comment
I have just finished Philip Tetlock’s fine book about forecasting the future in an intelligent way “Superforecasting: the Art and Science of Prediction”. His keen insights on this subject in his previous book “Expert Political Judgment” suggested that most political pundits we see in the media are no better at making precise, time bounded predictions about the future than a pack of chimps throwing darts at a dart board to generate choices.
But he has also found there is a group of people who are very good at forecasting, and his latest project realated in his new book has been to harness their skills in a forecasting tournament for the US intelligence community to make literally thousands of precise, time bounded predictions with precise estimates of likelihood to the nearest percentage point and then figure out who is great at this over endless iterations and how they do it.
Key…
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Blackout Blues Continue: Australia’s Wind Industry Loses PR War for ‘Hearts & Minds’
03 Oct 2016 1 Comment
The proponents of a pointless power source, abandoned centuries ago for pretty obvious reasons, which exists, and only exists by reason of massive subsidies drawn from power consumers and/or taxpayers have, from the outset, engaged in a well-orchestrated PR campaign aimed at winning ‘hearts and minds’.
An industry that wouldn’t survive a nanosecond without mandated subsidies; which is renowned for its thuggery, treachery, lies and deceit; riding roughshod over rural communities (beating up disabled farmers and pensioners, for example), driving people out of their homes due to incessant turbine generated low-frequency noise and infrasound; destroying landscapes; and slaughtering millions of birds and bats around the Globe, has to work overtime to maintain the social licence needed to maintain its place at the subsidy trough.
Once upon a time, there were plenty of well-meaning suburbanites that fell for wind power; and who were keen to…
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Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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